Can it work? Yes
This new approach has potential to significantly buttress American diplomacy over the coming months given Russia’s already staggering losses in Ukraine. By even conservative estimates, Russia has suffered over 1 million military casualties, including over 250,000 dead. It’s lost more than 10,000 tanks and armored vehicles, and its vaunted Black Sea naval fleet is now mostly at the bottom of the Black Sea.
Direct military costs are estimated to be above $300 billion and growing together with frozen assets and GDP losses for Russia in the hundreds of billions of dollars. The churning of manpower is reportedly causing record shortages of factory workers and essential labor needed to sustain Russia’s war effort.
Putin had clearly hoped that Trump’s shift away from Ukraine might allow for these trends to reverse and set his campaign on a more sustainable trajectory as the Ukrainians ran out of resources to sustain their own defense. So long as this new US policy continues, however, Putin will have few options to meaningfully reverse these trends, and he will need to recalculate the costs of continuing a war that is bleeding resources for little gain.
It is important now for the White House to drive this policy forward and for Trump to stick to his new convictions, which combined with bipartisan majorities in Congress and the strong backing of allies carries the best chance to force this recalculation in the Kremlin.
Conclusion
Trump yesterday announced a dramatic shift in Ukraine policy, opening a new chapter for American diplomacy and ongoing efforts to stop Russia’s war. It was the right move, and one that deserves bipartisan backing and follow through from partners and allies. The most important thing for Putin to understand is that the United States is not going to waver, and that the consequences for Moscow will only worsen the longer the war continues.
Because even in Ukraine, when standing with allies, the US is the biggest bear around.
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