The GOP pollster used by President Donald Trump during some of his presidential campaigns found that swing-district Republicans can boost their standing ahead of the midterms by supporting a key measure of the Affordable Care Act (ACA), also known as Obamacare.
Why It Matters
Republicans are hoping to thwart losses in the 2026 midterm elections as President Donald Trump’s approval rating has taken hits in recent public opinion surveys. Historically, the party in the White House suffers losses during their first midterm. During Trump’s first midterm in 2018 for instance, Democrats picked up 41 seats in the House of Representatives.
Healthcare is likely to be a major issue ahead of the midterms, especially following Medicaid cuts in Trump’s “One Big Beautiful Bill Act.” A new survey from Trump pollsters Tony Fabrizio and Bob Ward found that Republicans in the most vulnerable districts may be able to build support among voters by adopting the premium tax credit, one part of the ACA, which has been generally opposed by Republicans since its inception in 2010.
What to Know
The poll asked voters in 28 swing districts, which were evenly divided in 2024, whether they would support a generic Democrat or Republican, and found Democrats up by three. Among highly motivated voters, Democrats were up seven.
But it found that supporting the extension of the premium tax credit, set to expire at the end of 2025, is one way Republicans could win back support. The tax credit allows lower-income Americans to purchase healthcare in the ACA marketplaces and obtain healthcare coverage.
“Republicans can position themselves ahead of Democrats in these districts by extending the premium tax credit and using the individual market as a landing spot for working age adults on Medicaid,” the poll report, first reported by Politico, reads.
It found that Republican candidates who support that policy would lead Democrats by six points overall and by four points among the most motivated voters.
Seventy-nine percent of respondents, including 68 percent of those who voted for Trump, supported tax credits “that make it more affordable for working families and individuals to purchase health insurance directly through healthcare.gov or state exchanges,” the poll found.
The poll, notably, did not use the terms “Affordable Care Act” or “Obamacare” in its questioning.
If the tax credit is not extended, Republicans could pay a price, the poll found, as the three-point deficit would expand to a 15-point deficit. Republicans can also “benefit” by using the tax credit as a “landing spot for working aged Medicaid enrollees.”.
The poll surveyed 1,000 registered voters from June 7 to July 10, 2025, and had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.
Congressional Republicans have opposed the ACA and sought to repeal it during Trump’s first term, but those efforts were blocked by GOP Senators Susan Collins, Lisa Murkowski and John McCain.
Fabrizio worked as Trump’s 2024 pollster and has previously issued warnings to the GOP about voter concerns around the economy and healthcare.
Newsweek reached out to Fabrizio Ward for comment via the firm’s contact form.
What People Are Saying
The poll report noted: “Unlike recent changes to Medicaid which do not go into effect until after the midterm elections, voters on the individual insurance marketplace, who voted for Trump by 4-points, will begin getting notices of significant premium hikes this fall. The incentive is to act on extending the tax credit soon.”
A Peterson-KFF report from June said: “The enhanced premium tax credits are now set to expire at the end of 2025. Unless the premium tax credits are extended, consumers can expect increases in both the net premium payments and gross premiums.”
What Happens Next
Whether or not the GOP-controlled Congress will vote to extend the tax credits remains unclear at this point. Republicans in these key districts are already facing criticisms from Democrats over healthcare ahead of the midterms.
The post Trump’s Favored Pollster Advises Republicans to Adopt Obamacare Policy appeared first on Newsweek.
