On the heels of devastating flooding in Texas that killed more than 120 people this month, on Monday flash floods inundated subway stations in New York City and closed roads in New Jersey.
Extreme rainfall events are becoming more frequent and more intense as climate change alters global weather patterns. At the same time, local early warning alerts often rely on multiple systems working together: A timely mobile notification is useful only if cellphones have service to receive it.
That’s part of the reason flash floods are “the hardest kind of disaster to prevent” and why only about half the countries in the world have early warning systems in place.
So, what should you do to understand your neighborhood’s flood risk? I talked to experts about why you may be at more risk than you think, what you can do about it and how local governments are adapting.
FEMA’s flood maps
The Federal Emergency Management Agency publishes flood maps that inform all kinds of decisions, from zoning regulations to building standards. Some local governments have compiled their own easier-to-read flood maps based on the same information. (You can look at the FEMA flood map for your address here.)
FEMA maps remain extremely influential and they help determine which homeowners have to buy flood insurance, for example. But experts have argued that they actually underestimate the growing risk of floods.
That’s partly because FEMA models don’t account for the kind of intense rainfall events that led to the rapid rise of the river that flooded Camp Mystic in Texas, said Jeremy Porter, head of climate implications research at First Street, a research firm. Extreme precipitation was also a major contributing factor for flooding during Hurricane Helene in western North Carolina.
First Street’s flood risk model estimates more than twice as many properties lie in 100-year floodplains as official FEMA estimates suggest. Research from the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau published in January, which drew on models from First Street and FEMA, found that up to 440,000 homes across the country may be underinsured for flood risk.
Where else to look
For more frequently updated information, the federal government maintains maps of current and historic floods as well as a water prediction service, though the Trump administration has proposed cutting funding for related work. The National Weather Service is in the process of rolling out a flood mapping tool that will provide street-level visualizations of flood waters.
First Street’s risk model feeds into flood risk scores on real estate websites like Zillow, Redfin, Realtor.com, and Homes.com. Renters may have the best luck with Redfin and Realtor.com, which show data for every property, not just the ones that are currently on the market.
It’s important to note that many companies keep their flood risk maps under lock and key, and it’s difficult to know how First Street and FEMA maps compare to other estimates. Independent researchers have run analyses that conflict with First Street’s models.
Porter recommends consulting multiple models to try and understand your area’s risk, but unfortunately “anywhere can flood,” he said.
More than 99 percent of counties in the U.S. have experienced a flood event over the past 20 years, according to FEMA, and more than 40 percent of National Flood Insurance Program claims come from outside of places the agency identifies as high-risk zones.
What states are doing
As floods become more frequent, state and local governments are working to bolster their warning systems and build infrastructure to protect communities. New York City, for example, is building a 2.4-mile system of flood walls and floodgates designed to protect the East Side of Manhattan.
In Vermont, the state is pushing to adapt to flood risks after thousands of residents lost their homes and businesses following a devastating flood that destroyed buildings, roads and bridges in 2023.
The state’s emergency management team has since focused on strengthening its alert system. Eric Forand, Vermont’s emergency management director, says he encourages residents to understand their local geography and flood history. The state is also looking into establishing new rules requiring homeowners to disclose past flood damage when they sell their property.
Forand hopes this knowledge will help Vermonters plan so that they’re ready if they receive emergency alerts. “You don’t want that to be the first time you’ve thought about a flood in your entire life,” he said.
Some of these plans include a kind of acknowledgment that the new era of floods may have already made some places too risky to inhabit. In Vermont, emergency managers have begun using government funds to purchase homes that lie in floodplains and turn the property into parkland. So far, they’ve had 200 applications, Forand said.
Ask NYT Climate
How can I get clean energy tax breaks before they vanish?
If you were thinking about putting solar panels on your roof, buying an electric car or making your home more energy-efficient, time is quickly running out to take advantage of federal tax breaks that could be worth thousands of dollars.
Most of those credits are getting phased out this year under the policy bill signed into law by President Trump.
Here’s what to know about the federal tax breaks and how to get them while you can. We’ve also got tips on related programs that should be sticking around for longer. — Brad Plumer
Climate data
NASA website will not provide previous national climate reports
NASA said on Monday that it would not host on its website the National Climate Assessments, reports mandated by Congress that detail the ways climate change is affecting every part of the country and how communities can respond.
This month, the Trump administration took down the webpage, globalchange.gov, that provided the reports, which have been regularly published since 2000. A spokeswoman for NASA said at the time, “All pre-existing reports will be hosted on the NASA website, ensuring continuity of reporting.”
But in a reversal on Monday, the same spokeswoman, Bethany Stevens, said that NASA would not host the archived reports.
Read more. And read about the scientific groups who say they’ll keep working on the National Climate Assessment.
Extreme heat
When it’s this hot, ‘We are enduring, not living’
It’s just 8 a.m., and the sun is already punishing. Shahbaz Ali, a 32-year-old motorcycle driver who works with a ride-hailing service, is drenched in sweat before his day has even begun.
Sleep deprived from regular power outages in the hot weather, he heads off into the choking traffic of Karachi, Pakistan’s main port city, for nearly 12 hours of work. By midday, temperatures can exceed 104 degrees Fahrenheit, or 40 degrees Celsius, with high humidity along the Arabian Sea pushing the heat index past 115 Fahrenheit.
Karachi, Pakistan’s largest metropolis, is a striking example of how rising temperatures can turn cities into pressure cookers. It was recently ranked among the five least livable cities in the world, with its 17 million residents enduring overlapping crises of toxic air, frequent flooding and poor waste disposal. — Zia ur-Rehman
Read more. And read about how extreme heat is exacerbating air pollution.
More climate news from around the web:
-
The Guardian highlights estimates that project that Trump’s domestic policy bill will raise energy prices for most Americans, with Republican-leaning states bearing the brunt of the increases. By 2035, household energy bills in Missouri, for example, could increase by $640 a year.
-
High temperatures caused 1,180 deaths in Spain over the past two months, according to the country’s Environment Ministry. Reuters reports that 114 people in Spain died of heat-related causes over the same period last year.
-
Which states are the best at tackling plastic pollution? The Washington Post reports on a first-of-its kind analysis from the Ocean Conservancy.
Thanks for being a subscriber.
Read past editions of the newsletter here.
If you’re enjoying what you’re reading, please consider recommending it to others. They can sign up here. Browse all of our subscriber-only newsletters here. And follow The New York Times on Instagram, Threads, Facebook and TikTok at @nytimes.
Reach us at [email protected]. We read every message, and reply to many!
Claire Brown covers climate change for The Times and writes for the Climate Forward newsletter.
The post How to Know Your Flood Risk appeared first on New York Times.
