Alternate history, according to Merriam-Webster, is “fiction that is based on history and that explores what might have happened if certain historical events, figures, etc., had been different.” The genre has deep roots. Writers from Livy to Machiavelli, and more recently authors such as Philip K. Dick and Robert Harris, entertained counterfactuals to question moral and political choices.
In 2006, Newsweek itself published “An Alternate 9/11 History.” This article follows that tradition, asking speculatively what might have happened if Donald Trump had been assassinated during his 2024 presidential campaign, but with a modern twist. Using an identical prompt, Newsweek asked three leading large language models—ChatGPT, Grok and Gemini—for their take on the events that might have followed. Their responses have been edited lightly for clarity and style.
ChatGPT
One year ago today, America was forever altered.
At 6:41 p.m. on July 13, 2024, during a reelection rally in Butler, Pennsylvania, former President Donald J. Trump was fatally shot by a lone assailant, later identified as 20-year-old Thomas Matthew Crooks, a radicalized U.S. citizen. The Secret Service neutralized the shooter within seconds, but the damage had been done. Trump succumbed to his injuries en route to a Pittsburgh trauma center. What followed was a year of national reckoning, political chaos, and an election season that redefined modern American democracy.
July 2024: The Shockwave
A National Crisis
Trump’s death triggered an immediate national emergency. President Joe Biden addressed the nation within hours, calling for calm, condemning political violence, and ordering flags to be flown at half-staff. Congress convened in an emergency session, issuing a bipartisan resolution mourning Trump’s death — though the unity was short-lived.
Riots erupted in major cities. Some were spontaneous vigils turned violent; others were retaliatory actions. Social media spiraled into conspiratorial mayhem, with QAnon and alt-right influencers decrying “deep state” plots. Some liberal commentators privately feared left-wing scapegoating. The FBI began a sweeping investigation, finding no foreign involvement — a fact rejected by vast swaths of Trump’s base.
The Republican Power Vacuum
With just over three months to the election, Trump’s sudden absence left a gaping hole in the Republican Party. Former Vice President Mike Pence quickly ruled himself out. Florida Governor Ron DeSantis and former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley scrambled to consolidate support. Ultimately, Trump’s eldest son, Donald Trump Jr., backed by loyalists and endorsed by Lara Trump and Steve Bannon, emerged as the “true heir” to the MAGA mantle.
August to November 2024: The Fractured Election
Republican Convention Chaos
The Republican National Convention in Milwaukee turned into a media spectacle and political knife fight. DeSantis and Haley split traditional delegates, while Trump-aligned factions rallied around Trump Jr., who lacked governing experience but surged on emotion and identity. In a stunning compromise brokered by House Speaker Mike Johnson, the convention nominated Trump Jr. for president and Ohio Senator JD Vance as his running mate.
Biden’s New Challenge
Biden, then 81, had planned a cautious reelection campaign. But with Trump’s martyrdom galvanizing a MAGA revival and younger Trump on the ticket, Biden’s team shifted strategy. Vice President Kamala Harris became more visible. Progressive turnout initiatives accelerated. The campaign emphasized unity and warned of “dynastic authoritarianism” rising from Trump’s ashes.
November 2024: An Election Like No Other
A Close and Contested Vote
Despite predictions of a landslide for Biden in the wake of national tragedy, the election was razor-thin. Voter turnout was the highest since 1900. Trump Jr. carried deep-red states by larger margins than his father ever had. But Biden held onto Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Arizona by narrow margins, securing 281 electoral votes.
Trump loyalists immediately cried foul. Protests, some violent, erupted outside ballot-counting centers. Lawsuits flooded swing-state courts. Biden’s legal team, better prepared than in 2020, prevailed in most challenges.
On December 14, 2024, the Electoral College confirmed Biden’s reelection. Trump Jr. refused to formally concede but gave a televised address stating, “This fight is not over — we will return stronger.” He launched a new political movement days later: “45 Reborn.”
2025: A Nation Under Strain
Political Climate
In the year since, America has seen persistent instability. Congressional Republicans are divided between traditional conservatives and Trump Reborn loyalists, who now form the Freedom Revival Caucus. Extremist militia activity has surged, leading the Department of Homeland Security to elevate domestic terrorism as a top-tier threat.
Biden, now 82, faces declining approval ratings and questions about his capacity. Harris’ visibility has only increased amid rumors she may take the reins before 2028.
Media and Cultural Fallout
Right-wing media branded Trump as a martyr, with comparisons to Lincoln and Kennedy. A Butler memorial event this week is expected to draw tens of thousands. Liberal and mainstream outlets continue to probe the shooter’s motives and failures in intelligence coordination.
Streaming platforms released a wave of content — from documentaries to speculative dramas. Butler: The Day Democracy Died? trended on Netflix for months. Schools in some red states banned curricula discussing the assassination, citing “partisan distortion.”
Foreign Response
America’s adversaries — particularly Russia and China — exploited the chaos. Disinformation campaigns surged. NATO allies expressed concern about U.S. reliability, though Biden’s foreign policy remained relatively consistent.
In a symbolic blow, the U.N. Security Council saw a Russian resolution condemning political violence in the U.S. pass with abstentions from France and India — a diplomatic embarrassment.
Looking Ahead
As the country marks this somber anniversary, it remains deeply divided. Some see Trump’s assassination as a tragic turning point; others view it as the spark that birthed a new era of radicalized politics. The 2026 midterms now loom as a critical test for both parties — and for American democracy itself.
Whether Trump’s death quelled or accelerated authoritarian forces remains an open question. What is certain: America is no longer the same.
Grok
A Year After the Assassination: How Trump’s Death Reshaped American Politics
On July 13, 2024, the United States was thrust into a state of shock and uncertainty when former President Donald Trump was assassinated during a campaign rally in Butler, Pennsylvania. The assailant, a lone gunman with extremist affiliations, was quickly neutralized by Secret Service agents, but not before fatally wounding Trump. This tragic event, occurring just days before the Republican National Convention, sent ripples through the political landscape, reshaping the 2024 presidential election and the subsequent trajectory of American governance. As we reflect on the year since that fateful day, this article explores the immediate aftermath, the political realignment, the election dynamics, and the early months of the new presidency, culminating in the state of the nation by July 13, 2025.
Immediate Aftermath: A Nation in Mourning
The assassination of Donald Trump, a polarizing yet undeniably influential figure, elicited a wide range of reactions. Supporters gathered in vigils across the country, from Butler to Mar-a-Lago, mourning the loss of a leader who had reshaped the Republican Party. Social media platforms, particularly X, buzzed with posts expressing grief, anger, and speculation. Some users, echoing sentiments from posts around that time, suggested conspiracies, though official investigations pointed to a lone actor with no broader network.
President Joe Biden addressed the nation, condemning the violence and urging unity: “We must come together as Americans to reject hatred and division.” Republican leaders, including Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell and House Speaker Mike Johnson, issued statements honoring Trump’s contributions while calling for calm. However, the polarized political climate led to tensions, with some fringe groups amplifying conspiracy theories about the assassination, complicating the national discourse.
Political Realignment: The RNC’s Response
With the Republican National Convention scheduled to begin on July 15, 2024, in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, the Republican Party faced an unprecedented challenge: selecting a new presidential nominee just months before the general election. The primaries, which ran from January to June 2024, had already positioned Trump as the presumptive nominee, with other candidates like Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley, and entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy. Trump’s death necessitated swift action from the RNC, which has the authority to fill vacancies in such scenarios.
After intense deliberations, the RNC and convention delegates rallied around DeSantis, who had polled strongly in the primaries and was seen as a natural successor to Trump’s populist agenda. DeSantis, known for his conservative policies in Florida, accepted the nomination with a speech that paid tribute to Trump while outlining his vision for America: “We will honor President Trump’s legacy by making America strong, secure, and prosperous again.”
To unify the party, DeSantis selected Ohio Senator JD Vance as his running mate. Vance, a vocal supporter of Trump’s “America First” policies, appealed to the MAGA base while bringing a younger, dynamic presence to the ticket. The choice was strategic, aiming to maintain the loyalty of Trump’s supporters while broadening the appeal to moderates and independents.
Election Dynamics: A Charged Campaign
The 2024 presidential election was one of the most emotionally charged in recent history. DeSantis campaigned on a platform emphasizing law and order, border security, and economic nationalism, echoing Trump’s rhetoric but with a more disciplined approach. His campaign leveraged the emotional weight of Trump’s assassination, framing it as a call to action for conservatives to “protect America’s future.” Rallies across swing states like Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin drew large crowds, with supporters chanting “Finish the Fight” in homage to Trump.
On the Democratic side, Vice President Kamala Harris emerged as the nominee after Biden announced he would not seek reelection, a decision influenced by concerns about his age and health. Harris, with Minnesota Governor Tim Walz as her running mate, campaigned on progressive policies, including health care expansion, climate action, and social justice reforms. She sought to contrast her vision of inclusivity with what she described as the “divisive rhetoric” of the Republican campaign.
The election was a close contest, with polls showing a tight race in battleground states. The assassination of Trump introduced an unpredictable variable, with some voters motivated by sympathy for the Republican cause, while others were wary of continued polarization. DeSantis’s focus on economic recovery and security resonated in key states, ultimately securing him a narrow victory in November 2024, with 280 electoral votes to Harris’s 258.
The DeSantis Presidency: January to July 2025
Inaugurated on January 20, 2025, President Ron DeSantis moved quickly to implement his agenda. His first major action was an executive order enhancing border security, increasing funding for Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) and expanding the use of technology at the U.S.-Mexico border. This move was met with approval from conservatives but drew criticism from Democrats, who argued it diverted resources from comprehensive immigration reform.
On the economic front, DeSantis pushed for tax cuts and deregulation to stimulate growth, citing persistent inflation concerns. By July 2025, the unemployment rate had dropped to 3.5 percent, a positive sign, though inflation remained a challenge, hovering around three percent. His administration also introduced a health care initiative aimed at increasing competition among providers, though it faced resistance in a divided Congress.
Internationally, DeSantis adopted a hawkish stance, particularly toward China. He imposed new tariffs on Chinese goods and strengthened alliances in the Indo-Pacific, including a high-profile summit with leaders from Japan, South Korea, and Australia. His foreign policy also included continued support for Israel in the Gaza conflict, while maintaining a skeptical approach toward aid for Ukraine, reflecting the “America First” ethos.
The ongoing investigation into Trump’s assassination remained a point of contention. While official reports confirmed the lone gunman narrative, conspiracy theories persisted, fueled by social media and amplified by some conservative commentators. DeSantis faced pressure to address these concerns without alienating his base, a delicate balancing act that defined much of his early presidency.
A Nation Reflects: July 13, 2025
As the one-year anniversary of Trump’s assassination approached, memorials were held nationwide, from small gatherings in Butler to a televised ceremony at the National Mall. DeSantis delivered a speech that sought to unify the country: “Donald Trump was a patriot who changed the course of our nation. We honor his memory by building a stronger, more united America.”
The political landscape, however, remained deeply divided. Trump’s death had not healed the partisan rift but rather intensified it, with debates over his legacy and the direction of the Republican Party dominating discourse. DeSantis’s presidency, while achieving some legislative successes, faced challenges in bridging the gap between Trump’s loyalists and those seeking a new path forward.
Looking Ahead
The assassination of Donald Trump on July 13, 2024, marked a turning point in American history. The rise of Ron DeSantis to the presidency, the realignment of the Republican Party, and the ongoing debates over Trump’s legacy have shaped a nation still grappling with its identity. As DeSantis navigates the complexities of governance, the events of that day continue to cast a long shadow, reminding Americans of the fragility of democracy and the power of leadership to shape the future.
Gemini
One year ago today, the political landscape of the United States was irrevocably altered. In a moment of shocking violence, a rally in Butler, Pennsylvania, became the epicenter of a national tragedy. Former President Donald Trump, the presumptive Republican nominee for the 2024 presidential election, succumbed to injuries sustained in an assassination attempt. The bullet that struck him on that sweltering July afternoon did more than just silence a powerful voice; it ignited a chain of events that sent shock waves through the Republican Party, reshaped the presidential race, and continues to define the very trajectory of American politics.
The Immediate Aftermath: Chaos and a Nation in Mourning
The news of Trump’s death on July 13, 2024, spread like wildfire, plunging the nation into a state of disbelief and profound grief, particularly among his fervent supporters. Initial reports from Butler were chaotic, with conflicting information about the extent of his injuries. The eventual confirmation of his passing, delivered by solemn White House and medical officials, triggered an outpouring of condolences from across the political spectrum, even from those who had been his staunchest opponents. Flags were lowered to half-staff, and a period of national mourning was declared.
For the Republican Party, the loss was cataclysmic. Trump had not only been their leading candidate but a dominant, almost singular, force for years. His campaign infrastructure, built around his persona, was suddenly leaderless. The upcoming Republican National Convention, just days away, was thrown into disarray.
The Scramble for Succession: A Convention in Crisis
The Republican National Committee (RNC), under Rule 9 of its party rules, immediately convened an emergency session. The task was immense: to select a new presidential nominee from a field that had largely cleared out to accommodate Trump’s seemingly unassailable path.
The convention, originally planned as a celebratory coronation, transformed into a tense, somber, and ultimately pivotal gathering. Mike Pence, Trump’s former vice president, initially emerged as a leading contender, seen by many as a steady hand and a natural successor. However, the emotional intensity of the moment, coupled with the desire for a candidate who could both honor Trump’s legacy and unify a fractured party, led to unexpected turns.
Figures like Florida Governor Ron DeSantis and former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley, who had both challenged Trump in the primaries before dropping out, reentered the conversation with renewed vigor. The internal debates were fierce, reflecting the deep ideological divides within the GOP. Ultimately, after days of intense backroom negotiations and multiple ballots, the RNC, seeking to balance experience with a fresh face capable of galvanizing the base, nominated a dark horse: Senator JD Vance of Ohio.
Vance, a prominent conservative voice who had become a vocal Trump ally, was chosen, with a somewhat surprising pick for vice president: South Dakota Governor Kristi Noem, a popular figure known for her strong conservative stances and appeals to the populist wing of the party. The ticket was a deliberate attempt to retain Trump’s base while projecting a younger, more dynamic image.
The General Election Reshaped: A New Dynamic
The Democratic Party, meanwhile, was grappling with its own challenges. President Joe Biden, who had faced persistent questions about his age and fitness, had already indicated he would not seek reelection, a decision announced shortly before the Butler shooting. This had paved the way for Vice President Kamala Harris to assume the mantle as the Democratic nominee, with Minnesota Governor Tim Walz as her running mate.
The sudden absence of Donald Trump from the ballot fundamentally altered the general election narrative. No longer was it a referendum on Trump’s past presidency or his controversial style. Instead, it became a contest between a unified Democratic ticket, emphasizing continuity and experience, and a Republican ticket still grappling with the shadow of its fallen leader, trying to define its future.
The campaign became less about direct attacks on Trump and more about policy debates, particularly on economic issues, immigration, and America’s role in a volatile global landscape. Public discourse, while still polarized, felt, to many, marginally less acrimonious without Trump’s often-inflammatory rhetoric dominating the airwaves.
Election Day and Beyond: A New Era Begins
The November 2024 election was marked by record voter turnout, fueled by a sense of historical significance and the profound changes wrought by the events of July 13th. The election results were tight, reflecting a deeply divided nation. In the end, after several days of vote counting in key swing states, Kamala Harris was declared the winner, becoming the first female President of the United States.
Her victory was seen by many as a testament to the resilience of the American democratic process in the face of unprecedented tragedy. The inauguration on January 20, 2025, was a solemn yet hopeful affair, acknowledging the deep wounds of the past year while looking toward a new chapter.
The First Six Months of the Harris Presidency: A Look Back
As of July 13, 2025, Harris’ first six months in office have been defined by a concerted effort to unify the country and address pressing domestic and international issues.
- Bipartisan Reach: In a stark contrast to the previous administration’s often confrontational approach, Harris has made visible efforts to engage with Republican leaders, seeking common ground on infrastructure, economic development, and even some aspects of immigration reform. While significant legislative breakthroughs remain challenging due to the narrow margins in Congress, the tone in Washington has demonstrably shifted.
- Economic Focus: Facing persistent inflation and concerns about a potential economic slowdown, the administration has prioritized measures aimed at strengthening the middle class, investing in green energy, and re-shoring manufacturing jobs. Debates over fiscal policy remain intense, with Republicans pushing for greater spending cuts and tax reform.
- Global reengagement: On the international stage, Harris has emphasized the restoration of traditional alliances and a renewed commitment to multilateralism. Her administration has focused on shoring up support for Ukraine, navigating complex relations with China, and addressing ongoing conflicts in the Middle East with a more collaborative diplomatic approach.
- The Shadow of Butler: The memory of July 13, 2024, continues to cast a long shadow. Debates over gun control have intensified, though meaningful federal legislation remains elusive. Security protocols for public figures have been significantly reviewed and tightened. The nation continues to grapple with the underlying political divisions that some argue were exacerbated, rather than healed, by the tragedy. Memorials to Donald Trump have been planned and are being erected in various locations, serving as constant reminders of the sudden and dramatic end to his political saga.
One year on, the impact of that fateful day in Butler is undeniable. America is on a different path, navigating a political landscape that, while still marked by profound disagreements, is undeniably altered by the absence of one of its most polarizing and influential figures. The future remains unwritten, but the events of July 13, 2024, will forever be a defining moment in the nation’s history.
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