The 2024 presidential election saw a notable shift toward Republicans among Black voters, with President Donald Trump securing 16 percent of the Black vote—the highest level of support for a GOP candidate among Black Americans since President Gerald Ford in 1976. However, it remained lower than other voting blocs, with Trump winning 56 percent of the white vote and 43 percent of the Hispanic vote. His support among Black voters marked a significant rise from 12 percent in 2020 and just 8 percent in 2016.
Trump’s standing with Black voters has eroded over the past three months, according to new YouGov/Economist polling, raising fresh concerns about his outreach to a voting bloc he has long struggled to win over.
In a poll published in May, 22 percent of Black voters said they approved of Trump’s job performance while 69 percent disapproved, giving him a net rating of -47 points. That poll was taken between May 2-5 among 1,850 U.S. adults and had a margin of error of ± 3.4 percent.
By June, that gap had widened to -51, with approval dropping to 20 percent and disapproval ticking up to 71 percent. That poll was taken between June 6-9 among 1,533 U.S. adults and had a margin of error of ± 3.5 percent.
In the latest July poll, which was taken between July 4-7 among 1,528 U.S. adults Trump’s numbers fell even further. Just 15 percent of Black voters now say they approve of how he’s handling the presidency, while a striking 79 percent disapprove—pushing his net approval among Black voters down to -64 points. The poll’s margin of error was ±4 percent.
The slip for Trump among Black voters is in line with broader trends in national polling, which shows the president losing support among all voter groups for a variety of reasons, including his immigration agenda, his foreign policy actions and his performance on the economy.
Economic Concerns Drive the Decline
But polls suggest that declining support for Trump among Black voters is being drive primarily by concerns about the state of the economy.
On jobs and the economy, 24 percent of Black voters approved of Trump’s performance in May, compared to 66 percent who disapproved. In July, that fell to 18 percent approval and 72 percent disapproval. On inflation and prices, approval dropped from 19 percent in May to 16 percent in July, with disapproval rising to 75 percent.
Fears of a recession also remain high. In May, 26 percent of Black voters said a recession was “likely” in the next year, while 10 percent said it was “not likely” and 49 percent believed the country was already in one. In July, 24 percent said a recession is “likely,” 12 percent said it is “not likely,” and 47 percent still believe the country is already in a recession.
Tariffs are another sticking point. In May, 22 percent of Black voters said tariffs may cause short-term pain but lead to long-term growth, while 61 percent said they are harmful with no real benefits. In July, support for tariffs slipped to 15 percent, while 59 percent continued to view them negatively. Meanwhile, 78 percent in May said tariffs “increase” prices, with just 3 percent saying they “decrease” them. In July, that gap widened to 81 percent versus 1 percent.
Trump recently announced a set of new tariffs. On July 10, Trump announced a 35 percent tariff on Canadian imports, up from the previous 25 percent. The increase, which takes effect on August 1, targets a broad range of goods but exempts key commodities like energy products, fertilizers, and items protected under the United States–Mexico–Canada Agreement (USMCA). Trump justified the move by saying Canada has not done enough to combat the flow of fentanyl into the U.S. and continues to maintain what he calls unfair barriers for American digital services and agricultural exports.
In response, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney vowed to defend Canadian economic interests and reaffirmed his country’s commitment to cooperative efforts with Washington, including curbing the fentanyl crisis.
“We are committed to continuing to work with the United States to save lives and protect communities in both our countries,” he said.
Business groups on both sides of the border are alarmed, warning that a trade war could drive up consumer prices and strain supply chains that were only recently recovering from disruptions from the COVID-19 pandemic.
Over the past two weeks, the Trump administration has sent out what are being called “tariff letters” to more than 20 countries, warning them that 15 to 40 percent tariffs could be imposed on various imports if trade deficits aren’t narrowed and market access isn’t improved for U.S. products. The European Union (EU) is among the regions on alert; officials in Brussels say they’re bracing for possible 15 to 20 percent tariffs, and they’ve already begun drafting retaliatory measures in case negotiations fail.
Meanwhile, prices were up 2.4 percent in May in the U.S. compared with a year ago, up from a rate of 2.3 percent in April, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. That was driven by an increase in housing and grocery prices, but those increases were offset by declines in other areas, such as petrol, air fares and clothing.
A Bleak Outlook and Growing Discontent
Earlier this month, Trump signed into law his “One Big Beautiful Bill Act” (OBBBA), which the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimates will add $3.4 trillion to federal deficits over the next decade—a figure Republicans and the White House dispute.
Beyond spending cuts, the bill also includes tax changes. It raises the cap on the state and local tax (SALT) deduction from $10,000 to $40,000 and aims to make key parts of Trump’s 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) permanent—including extending lower tax rates and increasing standard deductions by $1,000 for individuals and $2,000 for married couples until 2028.
Trump has long argued these tax cuts spur economic growth, but critics say they primarily benefit the wealthy while adding to the federal debt—an issue now resurfacing as American voters reassess the trade-offs of his economic policies.
Polls have repeatedly shown that voters do not approve of Trump’s OBBBA. A Quinnipiac poll conducted between June 22 to 24 found that 55 percent of Americans said they oppose the bill. A Fox News survey from June 13 to 16 put opposition even higher, at 59 percent. Meanwhile, a KFF poll from June 4 to 8 showed the strongest pushback, with 64 percent saying they reject the legislation.
And according to July’s YouGov/Economist poll, a majority of Americans—53 percent—say they strongly or somewhat oppose Trump’s budget bill, compared to 35 percent who said they support it.
And that extends to Black voters. The YouGov/Economist poll shows that only 5 percent of Black voters said they support it, compared to 75 percent who oppose it.
Reflecting on these trends, Alvin Tillery, founder of Alliance for Black Equality and co-founder of 2040 Strategy Group, told Newsweek: “I think the lower numbers since June are much more reflective of sentiments in the Black community. I think the further erosion of support we are seeing, which puts his numbers lower than his margin of support from the Black community on Election Day, is a function of concerns about the BBA legislation and how it will affect health care and food assistance.”
He added: “I also think that Trump’s (and his administration’s) continual attacks on communities of color—from deportations to attacks on DEI to saying that ‘we have too many holidays’ on Juneteenth—are not helping his standing with the Black community.”
Amid such discontent, broader sentiment among Black voters has also turned more negative. In May, only 17 percent said the country was headed in the right direction, while 72 percent said it was on the wrong track. By July, 81 percent said the country is on the “wrong track” while 17 percent still said things are going well.
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