Kerr County, Texas, could again see heavy rain and flooding this weekend, only a week after thunderstorms unleashed deadly flash flooding there and in central parts of the state.
On Saturday, the threat is “slight” — a level 2 out of 4 — for a large portion of Texas, including the Hill Country and Kerr County, where the highest number of deaths occurred in the catastrophic floods.
With the ground fully saturated from the torrential downpours on July 4, even small amounts of rain can bring flash flooding, particularly in the Hill Country that’s often referred to as “flash flood alley” because rainfall gets funneled through the hilly terrain and canyons into the valleys.
“When you have saturated soil, that leads to quicker run off,” said Eric Platt, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service office that serves Austin and San Antonio.
The chance of rain on Saturday will start in the afternoon and continue into the evening. Preliminary forecasts showed that the rain might stay along and east of the Interstate 35 corridor, with less of an impact over Hill Country, but Mr. Platt said this could change.
“We’ll have to watch it pretty carefully,” he said. “With these types of situations, the rainfall is hit or miss. The atmosphere is going to have some moisture to work with, and the storms will be slow-moving. So there could be an inch of rainfall over Kerr County that could result in some flooding.”
The chance of rain is expected to remain in the forecast on Sunday after a storm system moves from Colorado into the southern Plains and across the Texas panhandle Saturday night into Sunday. The storm will bring an increased chance of rain and thunderstorms from West Texas to the Red River and northeast through Oklahoma.
The Hill Country is expected to remain on the southern edge of the system, and this will bring a chance of scattered rain. The higher rain chances are expected to stay to the north of the Hill Country in west-central Texas near San Angelo and Abilene, where a flood watch was issued for Saturday afternoon until Sunday afternoon.
“But we’ll be close to where the action is as far as the rainfall, so right now, we have a 30 to 40 percent chance across the Hill Country for rain on Sunday,” Mr. Platt said.
Amy Graff is a Times reporter covering weather, wildfires and earthquakes.
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