LONDON — Emmanuel Macron and Keir Starmer are set to unveil a host of defense pacts on the final day of the French leader’s visit to the United Kingdom.
After getting wined and dined by the king on Tuesday and unveiling the Bayeux Tapestry at the British Museum on Wednesday, Thursday will see Starmer and Macron sign a declaration spelling out that the British and French nuclear deterrents can be coordinated; update the Lancaster House treaties, a defense pact signed in 2010; jointly develop a new cruise missile to replace the Storm Shadow/SCALP; and work together on the development of advanced anti-drone weapons.
The two countries have dubbed their defense refresh an “entente industrielle,” which seems appropriate given how Starmer and Macron have gushed about the strength of the Franco-British relationship throughout the visit.
But the French president’s particularly soaring rhetoric since his arrival hints at an even more ambitious goal: a new special relationship.
“There is an expectation in Europe that faced with revisionist neighbors, our two countries have a special responsibility for the security of the continent,” Macron said in a speech to both houses of parliament on Tuesday.
While Britain’s special relationship with the United States remains the cornerstone of its defense strategy, U.S. President Donald Trump’s isolationist bent and his erratic view of the alliance has forced the British to consider the possibility that Washington may not be there through thick and thin.
“There’s a strain in the transatlantic relationship, and a wariness. The British were taken aback by U.S. decisions on Ukraine, the cutting off — albeit briefly — of intelligence with Ukraine, a country at war,” said Philippe Maze-Sencier, director of the consultancy firm Teneo France and a French army reserve officer.
“The reaction was, oh my god that could happen to us,” he said.
Moving forward
Macron and Starmer have gone to great lengths to lock arms when it comes to European security despite the bad blood following Brexit and drama surrounding a submarine deal in 2021. The French thought they had an agreement with Australia at the time only to see the U.S. and U.K. swoop in with the multibillion AUKUS deal, which did not include France.
The French may be enjoying a bit of Schadenfreude over the difficulties facing AUKUS at the moment, but that hasn’t stopped the Franco-British partnership from forging ahead.
“There is definitely a change,” said Maze-Sencier. “After Brexit, there was some resilience, but nothing moved forward. Now there are conversations happening that would have never happened a year ago.”
France’s military-industrial cooperation with Britain is thriving — just as projects with France’s great continental partner Germany, particularly the FCAS fighter jet, are bogged down. New defense exports, including military aviation components, are expected to be folded into the refreshed defense pact on Thursday.
And last month’s NATO commitment to invest up to 3.5 percent of gross domestic product in defense, a move both to appease Trump and strengthen Europe’s independence, means financial windfalls for European companies, even if finding the cash may not be so easy in Paris and London.
Challenges await
While working more closely with the French marks a return to old habits, convincing London to invest in its relationship with Paris at the expense of Washington is an enormous ask considering just how deep Anglo-American ties run.
And points of tension remain between the British and French that can’t be papered over by Macron and Starmer’s close relationship.
Though the EU-U.K. reset deal sealed in May set a framework for London to take part in the €150-billion SAFE defense financing program, France has since been pushing to limit U.K. access.
The two leaders’ joint push for a “coalition of the willing” to providing security guarantees for Ukraine in the case of a ceasefire also appears to be losing steam as Russia makes gains on the battlefield and the U.S. continues to hold out on guarantees of some sort of security backstop.
Macron and Starmer plan to head to Northwood Headquarters later Thursday, where they will call into a conference on Ukraine’s recovery being held in Rome.
“Apart from counting once more the number of buttons on uniforms, I don’t see the point of [a meeting of the coalition],” said François Heisbourg, a senior adviser at the International Institute for Strategic Studies.
Greater challenges await. Any drawdown of U.S. troops in Eastern Europe, as is feared later in the year, will put an onus on France and the U.K. to step up. Or plead with Washington to stay.
Macron’s pledge to shoulder European security with the U.K. will then really be put to the test.
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