Zohran Mamdani’s remarkable, decisive defeat of Andrew Cuomo in the New York Democratic primary for mayor opens a potential new path for progressive governance — one that will be a challenging, if thrilling, test for the American left.
Mr. Mamdani, the 33-year-old state assemblyman and proud democratic socialist, is the heavy favorite to win the general election in November, even in a field that includes the beleaguered incumbent, Eric Adams, running as an independent. If he prevails, he will be, without a doubt, the most powerful unabashedly left-wing politician in America.
That’s direct power: over America’s largest police force, its largest education department and a municipal budget that has soared past $110 billion. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Bernie Sanders are famous and influential leftists, but they do not oversee the machinery of government in the way mayors do. And governing, unlike legislating, cannot simply default to activism.
Mr. Mamdani would become the leftist others look to, either as a savior or as a villain.
New York City has a larger population than most states; it is racially, ethnically and politically diverse. The deep-blue hue of its electorate belies a tremendous complexity that has deviled many a mayor. How to govern for progressive A.O.C. supporters and conservative Orthodox Jews? What about churchgoing African Americans, Muslim Middle Easterners and Sikhs? This is a city that less than a year ago saw a significant swing toward Donald Trump.
Mr. Mamdani would face numerous tests. (A disclosure: In 2018, when I ran for state senator in New York City, Mr. Mamdani was my campaign manager.) With the city, the nation and even the world watching him, he would be tasked with fulfilling campaign promises that were widely popular. As mayor, he could freeze rent on rent-stabilized apartments, since the mayor appoints the members of the board that makes this decision. He could fund, through the municipal budget, the five city-run grocery stores in his campaign proposal, perhaps partnering with existing chains and subsidizing them to lower the cost of items there.
But at least some of his proposals would not be immediately deliverable. He would need to barter with the state-run Metropolitan Transportation Authority — and by extension, Kathy Hochul, the moderate Democratic governor — for his proposal to make buses free, even if the overall cost (it would mean forgoing an estimated $800 million a year in fare revenue) is not terribly expensive, in the grand scheme of the city and state budgets, which total north of $100 billion and $200 billion, respectively.
The loftiest and most difficult policy aim to achieve, in the short run, would be to make child care free for kids between the ages of 5 weeks and 6 years, building on the universal prekindergarten program established by Mayor Bill de Blasio. This would cost an estimated $5 billion to $8 billion per year — but the corporate tax hike that Mr. Mamdani hopes would pay for the program would have to be approved by the state. And Governor Hochul is firmly opposed to such a hike. Indeed, along with the governor, the State Legislature holds great sway over New York City. He can’t raise the tax rate or the minimum wage without the state’s sign-off. He can’t build large numbers of affordable housing units without state or federal assistance or rezoning schemes that allow for a great deal of market-rate construction. He cannot readily solve the homelessness crisis.
He would have to make a tremendous number of trade-offs. Municipal budgets are finite, and interest groups are constantly clamoring for their slice of the pie. Unionized workers want raises. Nonprofits crave fresh rounds of funding. He would have to manage a powerful elite of real estate developers and financiers who mostly despise him. If he wins in the fall, no New York mayor in modern times will have faced so much entrenched open opposition from the wealthy. Some, like the billionaire hedge funder Bill Ackman, are openly scheming about how to crush Mr. Mamdani in the general election.
Mr. Mamdani’s leftist agenda is far more rooted in the American tradition than his fiercest critics would ever admit.
The democratic socialism he embraces is not so different from the “sewer socialism” that found success in American cities a century ago, especially in Milwaukee. The Milwaukee socialists built a world-class parks system, added drinking water fountains, went after restaurant owners for serving contaminated food and forced factory owners to install heating systems and toilets. Just as important, they were never embroiled in corruption scandals. This should ultimately be Mr. Mamdani’s goal: to manage the city competently and fairly and to introduce beneficial public goods.
There cannot be any whiff of self-dealing or graft in the Mamdani administration. As much as many voters were thrilled by Mr. Mamdani’s campaign promises, including a rent freeze on rent-stabilized apartments, they also were drawn to the reform nature of his campaign, coming after four years of chaos from Mayor Eric Adams.
In addition, he cannot, as socialists sometimes do, attempt to abolish capitalism. He should seek, as best as he can, an outcome that leads to more wealth redistribution or at least makes life in New York slightly more affordable. The richest New Yorkers should emerge from a Mamdani administration largely unscathed because he is not seizing the means of production. They can keep making money. Some, in time, may even be charmed by him.
Similarly, if Mr. Mamdani wins, he will need to win over the Police Department. Once a supporter of defunding the police (he has since walked away from calls to slash the department’s budget), he will need to decide whether to retain Jessica Tisch, the billionaire scion who has been hailed for her corruption-busting efforts but is openly dismissive of policies Mr. Mamdani supports, including criminal-justice reforms like cash-free bail.
Progressives and leftists who have won executive office around the country — this is still rather rare — have a mixed track record. Michelle Wu, who became mayor of Boston at 36, is well regarded and has a strong 61 percent approval rating as she seeks re-election this year. She has maintained her liberal base while winning support from the local police union for raising their pay.
Ms. Wu is the best model for Mr. Mamdani because she has focused on both good governance and clear policy deliverables. A select number of local bus routes have been free under a pilot program she successfully steered.
Karen Bass entered Los Angeles City Hall with much fanfare but encountered withering criticism over her response to the wildfires that devastated the city in January. Ms. Bass otherwise has been constrained by the city’s weak mayor system, though she has made small progress in reducing the number of homeless people.
Brandon Johnson in Chicago is where Mr. Mamdani definitely does not want to end up: reviled and unlikely to win another term. The Johnson mayoralty has been plagued by perceptions of incompetence and an inability to grapple with high crime.
Mr. Mamdani is, unlike Mr. Johnson, a political savant with a genuine fan base, especially in the boroughs outside Manhattan. He would have a great deal of political capital to spend and a large number of supporters who would not readily sour on him. His natural charisma can keep his movement together — for a while, at least. Neither Mr. de Blasio nor Mr. Adams ever found this kind of good will. Mr. Mamdani’s victory in the Democratic primary was comprehensive enough, with winning margins in right-leaning, heavily Chinese and Latino precincts, that he would have a running start in January, assuming a comfortable victory in November.
Another advantage for Mr. Mamdani would be New York City’s relative health. The city is in a stronger place than it was in the first years after Covid. Tourism has been recovering, nightlife is vibrant, and plenty of business is being transacted. None of the Mamdani policy proposals would affect this economic health to a great degree. At the same time, violent crime has plunged, and the city might post its lowest murder rate in recorded history.
This is a new era for the city, and this was a realignment election, potentially elevating to power the youngest mayor in a century of this titanic, multifarious metropolis.
Ross Barkan, a contributing writer for The New York Times Magazine as well as a columnist for New York magazine, is the author of the novel “Glass Century.” In 2018, he ran for state senator, and Zohran Mamdani was his campaign manager.
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