When President Emmanuel Macron of France meets Prime Minister Keir Starmer of Britain in London this week, it could be a case of “misery loves company.” Both men have been humbled at home by political setbacks and stymied abroad by the disruptive ways of Donald J. Trump and Vladimir V. Putin.
Yet the extraordinary nature of this rendezvous — the first state visit by a French president since before Brexit and the first summit meeting between the British and French governments since Mr. Trump’s return to power — may be enough to lift them out of their domestic doldrums, at least for a few days.
Mr. Starmer hopes to announce more robust cooperation between Britain and France to curb migrant crossings of the English Channel. Both leaders will redouble their support for Ukraine in its war with Russia, meeting at a military base in northwest London on Thursday to continue planning for a European peacekeeping force they established in March, known as the “coalition of the willing.”
“State visits are usually stronger on pomp and protocol than substance, but this one may be different,” said Peter Westmacott, who served as Britain’s ambassador to France. “They realize that Britain and France have to take a lead, not least because of the capricious nature of Donald Trump’s commitment to Europe’s defense.”
Major breakthroughs on Ukraine and the migrant boat crossings appear unlikely, owing to the tricky international dynamics. But even more modest announcements would underscore how Europe’s two nuclear-armed nations are working together again, after years of friction following Britain’s exit from the European Union.
The host for Mr. Macron’s state visit is King Charles III, who is reciprocating for his own visit to France in 2023. There will be no shortage of pomp: Mr. Macron and his wife, Brigitte, will be conveyed to Windsor Castle in a horse-drawn carriage, where Charles and his wife, Queen Camilla, will throw a banquet for the couple. Mr. Starmer and Mr. Macron will lay wreaths in honor of Winston Churchill and Charles de Gaulle.
Once the pageantry is concluded, Mr. Starmer and Mr. Macron will sit down for lunch on Wednesday to discuss the gritty business of how to reduce the flow of asylum seekers who cross the English Channel on rickety boats. Police in France have recently taken more aggressive measures to discourage such crossings, in one case slashing a rubber boat with knives to deflate it just offshore.
Mr. Starmer is seeking a so-called “one-in, one-out” agreement with Mr. Macron, under which Britain would return people to France who crossed the channel illegally, in return for taking a comparable number of people with processed asylum claims.
The goal would be to break the grip of criminal gangs who traffic migrants across the channel. Mr. Starmer’s hopes for such a deal had risen until Italy, Spain, Greece and other members of the European Union complained that it could result in them having to absorb a flood of deported asylum seekers.
“The headline would be that they’ve done a ‘one-in, one-out’ deal with France,” said Peter Ricketts, another former British ambassador to France. “It’s difficult for the French because other E.U. members will be watching them like hawks.”
Such an agreement would be a political windfall for Mr. Starmer. The steady influx of migrants on small boats has haunted successive prime ministers, becoming a potent issue in the hands of the right-wing populist leader, Nigel Farage. Mr. Ricketts said he expected that France would end up offering something smaller in scale.
Ukraine is similarly challenging. Mr. Macron and Mr. Starmer have struggled to build momentum for the coalition of the willing, in part because a cease-fire between Russia and Ukraine seems ever more elusive, and in part because other countries have been reluctant to pledge troops or planes.
But analysts said a recent decision by the American defense secretary, Pete Hegseth, to halt weapons shipments to Ukraine would be another reminder to Europeans of the need to plan independently for Ukraine’s security, as well as their own. Mr. Starmer and Mr. Macron will travel to Northwood, a British military headquarters, to hold a conference call with leaders of other European countries.
As the leaders of Europe’s two nuclear nations, they are also expected to discuss the issue of deterrence. Mr. Macron has spoken in general terms about extending a French nuclear umbrella to other European countries. Britain already does so as part of its NATO membership.
Georgina Wright, a senior fellow and expert on Franco-British relations at the German Marshall Fund, said European countries would be watching to see if the two leaders issued new language on nuclear deterrence. “There is real anxiety in Europe that the U.S. nuclear shield isn’t going to be there in the future,” she said.
Mr. Macron and Mr. Starmer have diverged somewhat in their handling of Mr. Trump. Mr. Starmer continues to pursue a policy of no daylight with the president, whether on trade or security issues. Mr. Macron has been more provocative, making a high-profile visit to Greenland, which Mr. Trump has threatened to annex, and clashing with him after a recent Group of 7 summit meeting in Canada.
Mr. Ricketts played down the different approaches. “The British have always tended to stay close to American presidents,” he said, “while French presidents have always been willing to distance themselves.”
Britain and France could also find themselves at odds over trade with the United States, if the European Union refuses to sign the kind of vague framework deal that Britain negotiated with the Trump administration.
Still, there is more that unites Mr. Macron and Mr. Starmer than divides them, even beyond their shared political trials at home, where both are grappling with a fracturing political landscape that has weakened them. The specter of a retreating United States and an aggressive Russia, Mr. Ricketts said, should give them plenty of incentive to make common cause.
“It is essential that we keep this relationship going, even if both these leaders are going through difficult domestic times,” he said.
Mark Landler is the London bureau chief of The Times, covering the United Kingdom, as well as American foreign policy in Europe, Asia and the Middle East. He has been a journalist for more than three decades.
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