Earlier this year, Japan’s relationship with the United States seemed to be on solid footing.
Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba met with President Trump at the White House in February and pledged to significantly boost investment in the United States. The two leaders talked about their “unwavering commitment” to what some U.S. diplomats have called the most important bilateral relationship in the world, bar none.
Those ties appeared to count for something when the Trump administration announced so-called reciprocal tariffs on dozens of trading partners on April 2. Sure, the 24 percent rate handed to Japan from the top buyer of its goods was a blow. But Japan was the first major trade partner invited to Washington to negotiate those tariffs away.
Now, Japan is dealing with diplomatic whiplash.
On Monday, Mr. Trump delayed until Aug. 1 tariffs that were supposed to take effect on Wednesday for dozens of countries. Japan was among a subset of countries, along with a neighbor, South Korea, that received letters directing them to change what the White House called unfair trade policies.
The announcement that Japan would be targeted with a new 25 percent tariff came after a week in which Mr. Trump repeatedly lashed out at the country, an ally, for its unwillingness to buy American cars and rice. He characterized Japan as “spoiled” and indicated that a trade deal was unlikely.
On Tuesday, Mr. Ishiba said Japanese government officials had engaged in “earnest and sincere discussions” with counterparts in the United States. Mr. Ishiba called the U.S. announcement “deeply regrettable.”
The breakdown in negotiations has been striking because some officials in both Tokyo and Washington had initially expected a new U.S.-Japan trade deal to progress relatively smoothly. During the president’s first term, Japan’s prime minister at the time, Shinzo Abe, built strong rapport with Mr. Trump, signing a trade deal and securing a promise not to raise tariffs on Japanese cars.
Just two weeks after Mr. Trump announced his wide-spanning reciprocal tariffs on April 2, Japan’s chief negotiator, Ryosei Akazawa, was in Washington for high-level talks. He met regularly with U.S. officials, offering to increase purchases of American energy products and defense equipment, and at one point even put on a “Make America Great Again” hat.
But negotiations soon became strained. In April and May, Mr. Trump introduced 25 percent tariffs, a higher rate, on all imports of automobiles, like Toyota, Honda and Nissan cars, and auto parts — by far Japan’s largest export to the United States.
Those higher tariffs began to significantly weigh on Japan’s economy. In May, the value of Japanese exports to the United States declined 11 percent from the same month a year earlier, according to government data. The value of transport equipment, including cars and auto parts, fell 8.2 percent that month.
A few weeks after those tariffs took effect, Japan’s central bank halved its growth forecast for Japan for the year, citing what it described as the imposition of an “unprecedented level” of tariffs by the United States. Japanese automakers warned of billions of dollars worth of lost profits.
By late June, after a seventh round of trade talks failed to yield results, Mr. Trump appeared to grow increasingly frustrated. His administration was far from its goal of “90 deals in 90 days,” and Japan remained unwilling to accept a deal that kept in place tariffs on its key auto sector.
On Monday, after announcing his latest tariff threats, Mr. Trump said Japan, along with South Korea, “had their way for many, many decades” and the United States “just wanted fairness.” With regard to the higher levies, “they should take it or leave it, negotiate something that’s fair,” he said.
“Japanese officials mistakenly thought that because Abe was able to handle Trump so well, that his view of Japan had changed,” said Glen S. Fukushima, a former U.S. trade official who has watched U.S.-Japan relations for decades. They believed it would be possible to “hang tough” on autos while offering a package of other concessions, including investments, that might satisfy the Trump administration, he said.
In reality, the issues Mr. Trump has been complaining about in recent months, including Japan’s large exports of cars to the United States, are deeply rooted ones that have been on his mind since the 1980s, Mr. Fukushima said.
“Trump’s thinking really hasn’t changed, and the Japanese didn’t fully understand that,” he said.
In Japan, the government is facing domestic political pressures. The ruling party is preparing for a national election on July 20, and polling data indicate that voters largely oppose making concessions in tariff negotiations with the United States.
Mr. Ishiba has maintained that Japan would not consider any deal that does not include a reduction in auto tariffs.
“The Japanese government has avoided easy compromises,” he said on Tuesday. “We have continued rigorous negotiations in order to seek what should be sought and protect what should be protected.”
Kiuko Notoya contributed reporting.
River Akira Davis covers Japan for The Times, including its economy and businesses, and is based in Tokyo.
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