PARIS — It’s exactly a year since France’s snap elections that convulsed European politics by almost bringing the far right to power — which means President Emmanuel Macron now has the constitutional power to go for it again.
With his centrist government, led by Prime Minister François Bayrou, hanging on by its fingernails, does he fancy another throw of the dice?
In April, he roundly rejected suggestions he would dissolve parliament again. But it’s not so black-and-white. According to several people, including friends of the first couple as well as former and current government officials, all of whom were granted anonymity to discuss Macron’s future candidly, the frustrated president seems tempted.
Last December, his wife, Brigitte, appeared to be still helping her husband gauge whether he had blundered by calling the elections in June. Walking an old friend down the steps of the Elysée Palace, she slipped in a final question before her guest left.
“You too, you think it was a dumb move?” she asked.
Plenty of people did think so. Macron’s announcement of an election was the seismic event of the night of the European elections on June 9. Given the surging wave of support for Marine Le Pen’s National Rally at the EU level, France’s president reckoned he could stem the far right’s advance at home. It was a big gamble, and it backfired spectacularly.
Macron’s party lost its already razor-thin legislative majority, and the far right obtained a record number of seats in the National Assembly.
The answer to the French first lady’s question on that cold winter’s day seemed obvious. France’s hapless prime ministers and their paralyzed governments are now at the mercy of the National Rally in the National Assembly, which is stressing it can oust Bayrou when it wants.
Indeed, at the time Brigitte popped her question to her friend, France had just lost prime minister Michel Barnier less than 100 days into his premiership. thanks to the impossible political landscape created by the election. It was becoming apparent the country would head into the new year without a proper budget for the first time in its modern history.
‘I take full responsibility’
In his annual New Year speech, Macron offered something close to a mea culpa for calling the election.
“I decided on the dissolution to give you back your voice,” Macron read off a teleprompter in the slightly stilted tone he is known for when he is not improvising. “This decision has brought more instability than serenity, and I take full responsibility for that.”
Some of Macron’s closest advisers had been pushing for a public apology, but that phrase “full responsibility” didn’t sound too contrite. To several of his loyal followers listening carefully, Macron was not really acknowledging a mistake.
Alexis Kohler, the president’s longtime chief of staff often described as his “second brain”, and Philippe Grangeon, a former special adviser with whom Macron still talks regularly, both often describe Macron as a gambler who leaves the casino with his pockets nearly empty but convinced he’ll beat the house on the next try, a former colleague of the aides recounted to POLITICO.
While the president seemed to kill off the speculation about another election during his trip to Madagascar in April, some of his allies were, at the time, privately advising him against ruling anything out, if only so that he could wield the threat of elections again for political leverage. POLITICO reported at the time about speculation among members of the National Assembly over whether another vote would be in the offing.
Among all the people that POLITICO spoke to, the most widely shared sentiment was best captured by former president François Hollande — who named Macron as his economy minister in 2014 — even though he and Macron are no longer close.
In private discussions with contacts in Paris, Hollande makes clear he is unconvinced by Macron’s public statements on not holding an election, and says he is “of course” still thinking about it. He describes an election as Macron’s “last power.”
All on instinct
Several of the political calculations that Macron used to justify the dissolution in a now-infamous meeting with his shell-shocked government on the evening of the European elections ended up being very wide of the mark.
The president told his interlocutors glibly: “Good luck to the left in uniting in three weeks.” Then, just before the meeting concluded, he added that “it’s better to have [National Rally President Jordan] Bardella at Matignon [the prime minister’s residence] than Le Pen at the Elysée in 2027.”
By a whisker, Bardella didn’t get the job as premier because the left did, in fact, come together, defying Macron’s predictions. That hastily formed alliance ended up victorious in the snap elections, though it failed to win an outright majority.
One year on, Macron’s most loyal lieutenants are still trying to put a positive spin on the decision that, according to a poll last month, most people still overwhelmingly disapprove of. The president’s supporters say the high turnout — 66 percent in the first round, 67 percent in the second — proves Macron’s initial judgment correct.
Crucially, though, despite the final configuration of seats, the elections showed big wins in the popular vote for the far right in both rounds — an important signal ahead of all-important presidential elections in 2027.
In the end, the only thing that obliged Macron to call the elections was instinct. Several people close to the president said he believed the government would have collapsed that autumn when lawmakers voted on a new budget, forcing him to call new elections.
The president was convinced it was better to call the election at the time rather than have it forced upon him later — to “provoke” his fate “rather than suffer it,” a former minister who opposed the decision explained.
‘Macron is boiling over. It’s driving him crazy’
The irony of Macron’s big gamble is that he ended up with a prime minister averse to risk-taking. And, according to those close to the president, he’s infuriated.
“Macron is boiling over. It’s driving him crazy,” a close friend of Macron said.
The two men are, in many ways, polar opposites. Macron is a young investment banker-turned-politician who crashed the scene and blew up a system that Bayrou has been part of for decades, in large part due to his notorious propensity to equivocate.
A close friend of Macron said the president’s frustration is spilling over into other aspects of his life, too. “He’s irritated. He gets annoyed about everything,” the friend said.
Some people close to Macron believe the president is secretly counting on lawmakers to boot out the prime minister, whether during budget talks or over a child abuse scandal dating back to Bayrou’s days as education minister in the 1990s.
With the prime minister seen as a dead man walking, possible snap elections in the fall are no longer a whispered rumor but a genuine possibility some are starting to prepare for.
If the government collapses, Macron could simply choose to nominate a new premier — Armed Forces Minister Sébastien Lecornu’s name has been floated as a possibility — to try where both Bayrou and Barnier failed.
For now, there is no sign that plans are being drawn up. But that’s the problem with Macron, who is notorious for taking decisions at the very last minute.
After all, that’s exactly what he did last summer.
Joshua Berlinger contributed reporting.
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