“This brave decision will be an example for others.” With these words, Amir Khan Muttaqi, foreign minister in Afghanistan’s Taliban government, welcomed the announcement by Russia that it was officially recognizing the Taliban as the legitimate government of Afghanistan.
The Afghan Foreign Ministry wrote on X that this would be the start of “a new phase of positive relations, mutual respect, and constructive engagement.” It also posted a video of the meeting in Kabul between Russia’s ambassador to Afghanistan, Dmitry Zhirnov, and Muttaqi, in which Muttaqi declares: “Now that the process of recognition has started, Russia was ahead of everyone.”
The radical Islamist Taliban returned to power in Afghanistan in August 2021 after the withdrawal of international troops. The government is not democratically elected, and enforces a severe interpretation of Islamic Sharia law. Girls and women are banned from attending school after the age of 12. Until now, no country in the world has recognized the Taliban as the government of Afghanistan.
Economic interests
Afghanistan expert Conrad Schetter, the director of the Bonn International Centre for Conflict Studies (bicc), commented that Russia may have very specific reasons for recognizing the Taliban. It may, he told DW, have considerable interests in establishing economic ties with Afghanistan, not least as a potential hub for trade with Asia. Russia has been under international sanctions since the start of the war in Ukraine.
The Washington-based Carnegie Endowment for International Peace drew the same conclusion in a study published in 2024. “Russian officials have again begun speaking about using Afghanistan as a transit hub — for exporting Russian natural gas to India, and other goods to ports in Pakistan,” it said. “However, this requires a gas pipeline to be built through the mountains, and a railroad, which currently ends at Mazar-i-Sharif at the Uzbek border, to be extended.”
Until now, the construction of a railroad from Russia to Pakistan via the countries of Central Asia and Afghanistan has been nothing more than a pipe dream. If it were built, it would give Russia direct access to the Indian Ocean.
According to a study by the consultancy SpecialEurasia published on Friday, Moscow is hoping that its formal recognition of Afghanistan means it will become a major supplier and economic partner for the country “by expanding trade in oil, gas, and wheat, and by collaborating on infrastructure, energy, and agriculture projects.”
Schetter believes that Moscow wants to be the trendsetter in establishing a new way of dealing with Afghanistan, and that this is probably also a major factor in the decision. “They’re now hoping that other countries under authoritarian rule will follow suit,” he says. “With this step, they want to assume a leading role among the autocratic states. This too is probably a significant motivation behind this decision.”
Pressure on the West
While Russia is the first country to recognize the Taliban officially, others, mostly countries under authoritarian rule, have maintained relations with the Taliban for some time. The Chinese embassy in Kabul is still open, for example, and meetings between the two countries have taken place at ministerial level. Iran also maintains diplomatic contacts with the Taliban, and it too has an embassy in Kabul.
Pakistan has a close relationship with Afghanistan, despite political tensions caused by the activities of Sunni extremists along the border between the two countries. The region is seen as a breeding ground for extremist and terrorist activity around the world. The forced mass exodus of ethnic Afghans from Pakistan to Afghanistan shows the extent to which the two countries actually cooperate.
Qatar is acting as an intermediary between the Taliban government and the West, and the 2020 Agreement between the US and Taliban governments that regulated the withdrawal of US troops was signed in Doha.
Schetter comments that if these countries were to follow the Russian example, it would put considerable political pressure on Western states to do the same. “These states would then have to consider their attitude toward the Taliban. And this is precisely what could create a diplomatic dynamic that the Taliban now, because of this latest move by Russia, are more hopeful for.”
Bleak prospects for women’s rights
Afghan women’s rights activists fear that Russia’s recognition of the Taliban bodes ill for people in Afghanistan, especially women and girls.
Shaharzad Akbar, the former chairperson of the Afghanistan Independent Human Rights Commission, says the decision did not come as a surprise, but that it is very worrying, as it normalizes the Taliban’s extensive crimes against their own people, especially women. “This recognition sends a signal to all countries that work against women and human rights, that oppress women, and base their politics on religion, repression, and ethnic affiliation,” she says.
Schetter is also concerned. “This step indicates that the international community prioritizes recognition of the Taliban over the observance of human rights,” he says. “This is about sheer power politics, in which the question of human or women’s rights really plays a very subordinate role.”
He believes there is reason to hope that the Taliban might grant women more rights again one day. “But this will have to happen according to the Taliban’s rules. The current logic of the Islamist group in Afghanistan consists of depriving women of all their rights in order to reinstate them at some later stage. But this will happen based on a decision that the Taliban will make themselves, not as a result of international pressure. For now, though, the Taliban may feel that the recognition by Russia validates the domestic policy they’re pursuing.”
This article has been translated from German.
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