Republicans have been warned that the party’s recent passage of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act could have dramatic repercussions in the 2026 midterm elections.
Karl Rove, a longtime GOP strategist, said on Fox News’s America’s Newsroom: “I think it’ll have a huge impact on 2026, because, remember, as these changes, particularly the Medicaid changes come into effect, they’re going to have, people are going to be losing their coverage.”
Why It Matters
President Donald Trump‘s Big Beautiful Bill, a taxation and spending package, narrowly passed the House of Representatives on Thursday by 218 votes against 214, having been approved by the Senate earlier in the week thanks to vice president JD Vance‘s tiebreaking vote. Trump signed the bill into law on Friday.
The flagship legislation contains an array of tax and spending measures. Tax cuts Trump introduced in 2017 would be made permanent, while state and local tax deductions would increase from $10,000 to $40,000—primarily benefiting those living in high-tax states. The bill also includes additional funding for border security and the military and cuts to Medicaid and food stamps. It also raises the national debt ceiling and the Congressional Budget Office projects it will add $2.4 trillion to the U.S. federal debt.
What To Know
Republicans advanced sweeping policy changes with the bill, imposing 80-hour-per-month work requirements on able-bodied Medicaid recipients and introducing stricter eligibility checks. The legislation will reduce federal funding for Medicaid and food assistance, which is likely to result in millions losing coverage.
Overall, Rove backed the legislation, commenting: “The able-bodied—think about it, there was an interesting study done of able-bodied people on Medicaid, and … you know what their No. 1 activity was if they weren’t working? It was watching television. And No. 2 was playing online games.”
The GOP strategist praised work requirements but cautioned Republican leaders that “the work is just beginning,” urging continued advocacy to justify these changes to voters.
Rove said: “Medicaid was meant for poor seniors, for children in poor families, and for the disabled, and we should not be paying for health care for people who are able-bodied, and can work, and are refusing to work. This is why they got to go on the offense. But yeah, it’s going to be a big impact.”
Meanwhile, Democrats and critics warn the cuts could energize opposition and threaten Republican lawmakers’ control of Congress in closely divided districts.
What People Are Saying
Speaking to Newsweek Gianno Caldwell, a conservative commentator and Fox News contributor, said: “BBB [Big Beautiful Bill] is what the American people have been demanding for decades. Putting the American People First, less taxes, support of the working and middle classes and cutting taxes for every American. Trump kept his promise and the American people won.”
Mark Shanahan, an American politics expert who teaches at the University of Surrey in the U.K., told Newsweek: “The cuts to America’s safety net may bite hardest. While the tightening of the rules around SNAP won’t come into play until 2028, Democrats have the chance to weaponize the changes in Medicaid around work requirements, six-month reenrolments, and, especially, the cut in provider tax.
“At an individual level, millions of poorer Americans—many firmly in the MAGA camp—will see their benefits cut, while, at community level, we’re likely to see a slew of rural hospital closures. There are many more Americans on Medicaid than there are billionaires, and this bill skews heavily against the poor. The White House may have calculated that these people don’t vote anyway, but history says Americans vote on how healthy their wallet feels. By November 2026, for many, their wallets may be on life support.”
Dafydd Townley, a U.S. focused political scientist at the University of Portsmouth in southern England, told Newsweek: “The Big Beautiful Bill could prove costly to the Republican Party if the promised tax cut benefits are not felt universally. Concerns over Medicaid and the closure of rural hospitals are also unlikely to be welcomed but Republicans in close-fought districts. While there is likely to be some pushback against the incumbent party, the Republicans have a tiny majority in the House and will be determined to minimize this. If the House does flip to the Democrats in 2028, there will undoubtedly be two years of political stalemate as it’s unlikely there will be any bipartisan collaboration, much like the last two years of the first Trump administration.”
Matt Terrill, a managing partner at consultancy firm Firehouse Strategies, told Newsweek: “This will be an asset to President Donald Trump and Republicans given this is the president delivering on the promises he made on the campaign trail—from tax cuts, to border security, etc., and those who voted for the president and congressional Republicans expected them to deliver on these core campaign promises.
“In addition, this bill, particularly the tax cuts component, was crucial with respect to providing the president the ability to execute his economic agenda. Without this bill, he would not have been able to do so, and the upcoming midterm elections will primarily be about the economy.
“However, for this to be a sustained win for the White House and for the GOP, particularly heading into the midterm elections, it comes down to where the economy will be over the next few months. Heading into the midterms, if the economy is strong, this bill will not just be a micro win but a macro win as well.”
What Happens Next
The next midterm elections are scheduled to take place on Tuesday, November 3, 2026. Currently, the Republicans have a narrow majority in both the Senate and House and losing either would make it significantly more difficult to pass President Donald Trump’s policy agenda.
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