Fourth of July celebrations may be more muted than you’re expecting

Good morning. Happy 249th birthday, America — not that we’re counting! — with warm regards from London.

As the BI Today team is off for the holiday, I’m bringing you an abbreviated version of the newsletter.

In today’s big story, why Fourth of July celebrations may be more muted than you’re expecting — and why the situation next year could be even worse.

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The big story

The surprise guests at your barbecue: tariffs

Could you imagine the Fourth of July without fireworks? Well, we aren’t quite there yet, but you may be seeing fewer in the sky this evening.

That’s because many Americans have discovered their sparklers now come with a surcharge. From fireworks to backyard barbecues, President Donald Trump’s tariffs are threatening to rain on America’s birthday parade.

The trade war with China has driven up the price of many of America’s favorite pyrotechnics.

Meanwhile, higher tariffs, coupled with stubbornly high inflation and a historic low in the American cattle supply, have jacked up the price of everything from beef to ice cream.

Although I’ve never personally celebrated a Fourth of July (my lot was on the other side), those all strike me as crucial components for a quintessentially American celebration.

Northwestern University’s Medill Spiegel Research Center, which tracks consumer behavior, predicts a 5% drop in Independence Day celebrations this year, largely thanks to those higher prices.

BI spoke with Americans who feel like they’re being forced to scale back on parties this year — with one discovering that the tariffs will push them $2,000 over-budget.

Perhaps even more alarming is the impact the tariffs could have on next year’s celebrations.

It’ll mark the 250th birthday of the US — meaning Americans will likely do it big.

Demand for fireworks is expected to surge for the momentous anniversary, but due to long lead times (shipments from China are usually ordered a full year in advance) and uncertainty around where the China tariffs will end up, industry watchers say there’s a real risk of significant product shortages and higher prices.

In other news

• Congress has passed Trump’s ‘Big Beautiful Bill.’ Here are 4 ways it could impact your wallet.
• Trump’s tax plan won’t help Tesla, but 2 other EV companies got a stock boost.
• Diddy could get a 20-year prison sentence but the reality probably won’t be anything close to that.
• The NCAA settlement is a big win for football players. For other athletes, the picture is murkier.
• This company is requiring employees take PTO this summer — and is offering some a $1,000 vacation stipend.
• ‘I don’t trust it, I don’t like it’: Lawmakers sound off on why they don’t use AI.
• Robinhood is known for its meme-stock and crypto traders. Its CEO says users are embracing passive investing too.
• The CEO of a key SpaceX rival says customers are drawn to his company because it’s ‘even-keeled’.
• ‘Love Island USA’ star Elan’s brother is running his Instagram. He told us he’s ‘not doing this for the clout.’

What’s happening today

• Samsung Electronics issues Q2 pre-earnings guidance.

• Nathan’s Famous Fourth of July Hot Dog Eating Contest.

  Hallam Bullock, senior editor, in London. Grace Lett, editor, in New York. Akin Oyedele, deputy editor, in New York. Amanda Yen, associate editor, in New York. Lisa Ryan, executive editor, in New York. Dan DeFrancesco, deputy editor and anchor, in New York (on parental leave).

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