President Trump has gotten almost everything he has wanted from the Republican-controlled Congress since he took office in January.
G.O.P. lawmakers approved his nominees, sometimes despite their doubts. They ceded their power over how federal dollars are distributed, impinging on constitutional authority. And they have cheered his overhaul of the federal bureaucracy, even as he has bypassed the legislative body’s oversight of federal agencies.
But now, Mr. Trump is pressuring Republicans to fall in line behind his sprawling domestic policy bill, even though it has elements that could put their party’s hold on Congress in greater peril in next year’s midterm elections. Fiscal hawks are appalled by estimates that the bill would add at least $3.3 trillion to the country’s ballooning debt, while moderate Republicans are concerned about the steep cuts to the safety net.
Yet Mr. Trump is still getting his way — at least so far. The Senate narrowly passed the bill Tuesday, with Vice President JD Vance breaking the tie. The bill now heads back to the House, where the president can only lose three votes, and where anger among both moderates and conservatives about changes made by the Senate is running high.
Getting the bill through the House may be the biggest test yet of Mr. Trump’s second-term political power. If he gets the bill over the finish line, it will be another legislative victory and a vivid demonstration of his continuing hold over the party.
The process of driving the legislation forward has exposed deep divisions among congressional Republicans, as well as concern about the huge political risks of supporting the bill. In the end, fear of crossing Mr. Trump kept defections in the Senate to a barely manageable level.
Other presidents have asked sacrifices of their own parties while seeking to take advantage of congressional majorities. President Bill Clinton’s tax increase and spending reduction budget in 1993 helped lead to Democrats losing control of the House the following year. Passage of President Barack Obama’s health care bill in 2010 contributed to a Republican wave in elections that fall, with Democrats losing control of the House and losing seven seats in the Senate.
Current elected Republicans were no doubt aware of the history, but still stuck by Mr. Trump.
Mr. Trump has always prioritized his agenda and legacy over the broader Republican Party, and he is deploying his usual playbook of public bullying and political threats to keep lawmakers in line. He has repeatedly promised to back primary challengers against lawmakers who vote against the legislation.
“New poll: Anybody I Endorse beats Thomas Massie of Kentucky by 25 points,” Mr. Trump wrote on Tuesday on Truth Social, his social media site. “Get ready. Massie is a very bad guy!”(Mr. Massie has been among the most vocal critics in the House of Mr. Trump’s bill.)
In the Senate, the threats — combined with sweeteners for Senator Lisa Murkowski, Republican of Alaska — seemed to work. Senator Thom Tillis, Republican of North Carolina, announced that he would not run for re-election, a day after Mr. Trump threatened to support a primary challenger against him because he opposed the domestic policy bill.
For weeks, Mr. Tillis had raised concerns about the consequences of the legislation, particularly the loss of Medicaid coverage. In private meetings, Mr. Tillis warned that the bill could lead to significant Republican losses in next year’s midterm elections.
After announcing he would retire, Mr. Tillis turned to excoriating Mr. Trump’s bill on the Senate floor, almost certainly giving Democrats footage for future campaign ads.
“It is inescapable this bill will betray the promise Donald Trump made,” he said in one speech. “I’m telling the president that you have been misinformed. You supporting the Senate mark will hurt people who are eligible and qualified for Medicaid.”
Polls show that American voters are skeptical of the legislation, and Democrats are already putting plans in place to make the legislation and its cuts a centerpiece of their midterm electoral strategy. Senator Rand Paul, a Kentucky Republican who also voted against the bill, added fuel to the fire for Democrats.
“Republicans now own the debt, and Republicans now own the spending,” he said. “There is no more blaming — ‘Oh, it’s Biden’s fault.’ The deficit is fully, completely owned by Republicans.”
But Mr. Trump has now shifted his focus to the other side of the Capitol, ramping up threats against wayward lawmakers there.
“Most House members wake up worried about a primary challenge, and they know that if Trump endorses them, they will almost certainly win and be re-elected,” said Alex Conant, a Republican political strategist. “That gives Trump tremendous power. A House member could vote against this bill, but that means they will probably lose their primary. Not a lot of members want to do that.”
Mr. Trump’s ironclad grasp on Republican lawmakers stems from his deep support among his political base, which current and former lawmakers say translates into organized support for his priorities in their home states and districts. But some say that this bill could pose a threat to that power.
“The president, his powers are at their zenith right now,” said former Senator Jeff Flake, a Republican who broke with Mr. Trump and then served as ambassador to Turkey in the Biden administration. “But it’s only downhill from here, and then you’ve got the voters to contend with. And that’s different depending on what state or district you’re in.”
He added: “If you’re just worried about re-election, that’s something I would certainly consider before I voted for this bill.”
Even amid his pressure campaign, Mr. Trump seems aware of the delicate political dynamics that could accompany a decision to slash Medicaid and food assistance programs.
“When you do cutting, you have to be a little bit careful, because people don’t like necessarily cutting if they get used to something,” he said in an interview on Fox News last week.
He added: “You also have to get elected.”
But it does not seem to bother him too much, because the current version of the bill still has deep cuts, and Mr. Trump expects it on his desk by Friday. When asked for his message to Republicans who were not yet supportive of the legislation, Mr. Trump said: “I think it would be very wise for them to get on board. I really do.”
Tyler Pager is a White House correspondent for The Times, covering President Trump and his administration.
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