Paetongtarn Shinawatra, ‘s youngest prime minister, while the Constitutional Court considers a petition for her removal.
Her suspension comes after a protest in Bangkok over the weekend called for her ouster following a leaked phone conversation between Paetongtarn and Cambodia’s former leader, Hun Sen, over .
Her perceived deference to Hun Sen . Paetongtarn was accused of undermining the country’s national interests.
For her opponents, Paetongtarn’s suspension is “their first victory,” according to Puangthong Pawakapan, an associate professor of political science at Thailand’s Chulalongkorn University.
“Paetongtarn has destroyed the legitimacy of her Pheu Thai party [to run the country], especially after her call with Hun Sen,” she told DW.
“The parliament will vote for a new prime minister and Pheu Thai could probably hold out a bit longer, but not long, no more than three months,” she predicted.
The sweeping power of Thailand’s Constitution Court
now has 15 days to present her defence. In the meantime, Deputy Prime Minister Suriya Jungrungruangkit will serve as acting leader.
Paetongtarn will remain in the Cabinet as culture minister following a reshuffle.
“She will most likely be dismissed, given how things have gone previously,” Punchada Sirivunnabood, a professor of political science at Thailand’s Mahidol University, told DW.
If Paetongtarn is eventually removed, the 38-year-old would be the second prime minister from Pheu Thai to be dismissed since August last year.
Her predecessor, after less than a year in power on charges of ethics violations.
The same court also , which won the most seats in the 2023 election. Its leaders were banned from politics for 10 years.
The top court ruled in favor of the Election Commission’s petition that Move Forward had attempted to overthrow the monarchy by pledging , which shields the Thai royal family from criticism.
Thaksin facing his own legal battles
The Constitutional Court’s suspension of Paetongtarn came on the same day as the start of a trial against her father, Thaksin Shinawatra.
over an interview he gave to a South Korean newspaper, Chosun Ilbo, in 2015.
The former prime minister, who was ousted in the 2006 coup, was widely seen as the driving force behind Paetongtarn’s government.
after 15 years in exile. Thaksin’s return was part of a grand reconciliation between Pheu Thai and the conservative establishment — its long-time adversary.
Thaksin, the first elected Thai leader to finish a four-year term, rose to power in 2001 on a wave of populist policies. , has long challenged the military and royalist establishment.
Is this the end for the Shinawatra clan in Thai politics?
Thaksin-backed parties, the main force in Thai politics for the past two decades, have been repeatedly ousted after court rulings and street protests.
In 2014, Thaksin’s sister, for abuse of power just days before . Yingluck was facing growing protests calling for her resignation.
Paetongtarn is now also facing protests. Many in the demonstrations over the weekend are longtime supporters of the conservative, pro-royalist “Yellow Shirt” movement, who opposed Paetongtarn’s father and aunt.
“The power of Thaksin and the Shinawatra family has weakened. There are ups and downs. It will be extremely difficult for the Shinawatra family to hold onto power,” said Punchada.
But the Shinawatras are not expected to relinquish power. Analysts predict that Chaikasem Nitisiri, Pheu Thai’s third and final prime ministerial candidate in the 2023 election, will be nominated to be the next person to lead Thailand.
Puangthong believes the potential appointment of Chaikasem, who served as justice minister in the Yingluck cabinet until his dismissal in the 2014 coup, would not quell the anti-government protests.
The establishment’s ideal candidate, according to Puangthong, would be someone who is “loyal [to the monarchy] like ,” the army chief behind the coup that toppled Yingluck’s government and who remained in power until 2023.
What’s next for Thailand?
Puangthong stressed that Thailand will not progress “without politicians who dare to go against the bureaucracy, the capitalists, and the monopoly. Pheu Thai doesn’t have the courage and is incapable of doing so.”
She added that , which was founded after the dissolution of its predecessors, Move Forward and , “seems to be the only party with the most courage, but they couldn’t do anything.”
Despite winning the most seats in the 2023 election, Move Forward’s leader, by the Senate, whose members were hand-picked by the former military junta.
“It’s been the same for the past 20 years. Thailand is still in the same cycle. There is a coup, then an elected government, then street protests,” said Punchada.
“I hope that this time around the demonstrations won’t bring the military back into politics,” she added.
Edited by: Karl Sexton
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