Andrew here. We’re getting down to the wire for President Trump’s big beautiful bill. Elon Musk called the bill “insane” over the weekend — yet big business seems to be behind it after a number of last-minute changes were made.
Meanwhile, some trade deals may be getting closer to done. And we’re focused on comments that Zohran Mamdani, the presumptive front-runner for New York City mayor, made over the weekend about billionaires (and his refusal to condemn the phrase “globalize the intifada”).
A crucial vote nears
Republicans are slogging toward a vote later on Monday on the Senate’s version of a major domestic policy bill that’s the linchpin of President Trump’s agenda. But the proposal’s ultimate fate appears cloudier than ever.
Among the obstacles: the Senate’s rule keeper has struck several provisions, which could torpedo crucial support by wavering lawmakers; a potential price tag that far exceeds the fiscal impact of the House’s bill; and the latest fulminations online by Elon Musk, Trump’s erstwhile ally.
The latest: Senate leadership delayed a marathon series of votes on amendments to the legislation until Monday. Republicans are forging ahead with an accounting gimmick that’s meant to get around the chamber’s longstanding rules and unilaterally declare that extending the 2017 tax cuts — estimated to cost about $3.8 trillion over a decade — would add nothing to the federal deficit.
But warning signs keep cropping up:
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Even as pressure from Trump on Senator Thom Tillis over his misgivings about potential cuts to Medicaid prompted the lawmaker’s retirement, the North Carolina Republican warned his colleagues that they were about to “make a mistake on health care and betray a promise.” Tillis’s comment underscores some lawmakers’ fears that the potential Medicaid cuts could cost Republicans at the polls.
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One of the latest rulings by the Senate parliamentarian struck a provision meant to benefit Alaska, to help win support from Senator Lisa Murkowski. While she voted to advance the bill out of committee, some Republicans worry that the loss of that sweetener could cost her support. The parliamentarian also rejected an effort to expand a Medicare drug price negotiation exemption for “orphan” drugs.
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The nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office calculated that the Senate bill would add $3.3 trillion to the federal deficit, compared with a $2.4 trillion hit from the House’s version. That could erode support in the lower chamber — especially from the House Freedom Caucus — which must approve the Senate’s changes.
And Musk has weighed in again. Over the weekend, the billionaire — whose public denunciations of the legislation opened a rift between him and Trump — called the Senate proposal “political suicide” for Republicans and said it would “destroy millions of jobs in America.” He added that it would put the country “in the fast lane to debt slavery.”
The Tesla chief also took aim at the legislation’s proposed cuts to clean energy initiatives, calling it “a massive strategic error” that “will leave America extremely vulnerable in the future.”
That said, Musk’s earlier criticism appeared to fail in persuading House Republicans to vote against the legislation.
Will all this reignite Musk’s feud with Trump? A war of words between the two earlier this month raised the prospect of the president using his administration to attack his former ally’s businesses, many of which could be vulnerable to tougher regulation.
The men had appeared to settle their differences, with Trump telling Fox News in an interview recorded on Friday, before Musk’s latest criticisms, “I think Elon is a wonderful guy.” Trump added of their previous interaction, “he got a little bit upset, and that wasn’t appropriate.”
HERE’S WHAT’S HAPPENING
Iran could enrich uranium in “a matter of months,” a U.N. inspector says. The statement by Rafael Mariano Grossi, the head of the International Atomic Energy Agency, is at odds with President Trump’s claim that U.S. strikes had “obliterated” the country’s nuclear facilities, and more closely matches reports from European intelligence and a preliminary report by the Defense Intelligence Agency. It raises the prospect of further fighting that could unsettle energy markets.
Trump says a buyer for TikTok has emerged. He told Fox News in an interview that aired on Sunday that a “group of very wealthy people” are in the running to acquire the popular Chinese-owned video app, without identifying them. Speculation on bidders — from Amazon to a group led by Larry Ellison’s Oracle — has percolated in recent months, but a deal still hinges on approval from Beijing, which may see TikTok as leverage in trade talks.
Baidu makes a big A.I. bet. The Chinese tech behemoth plans to to open-source Ernie, its large language model, CNBC reports. The move, which would make Ernie freely available to developers, could further undercut interest in closed-source proprietary models from OpenAI and Anthropic — but some that have embraced the open-source approach, such as Meta, are reconsidering.
Apple finally takes a box-office victory lap. “F1: The Movie,” starring Brad Pitt and produced by the tech giant, pulled in $144 million globally this weekend, giving the iPhone maker a sorely needed win for its Hollywood efforts after a series of theatrical duds. Still, “F1” cost Apple an estimated $350 million to make and market, meaning it still has a long way to go to be profitable.
A bullish pivot on trade
The drama in Washington over President Trump’s policy bill doesn’t seem to be fazing investors.
Global markets were edging higher on Monday amid hopes that progress is being made on trade deals ahead of next week’s deadline for some of Trump’s biggest tariffs.
The latest: Canada said it would scrap a digital services tax that had drawn the ire of Trump and tech giants and had become a flashpoint in trade talks between the countries. Last week, Trump had threatened to pull out of negotiations over the tax, which was to go into effect on Monday.
Trump suggested he can be more flexible in negotiations, telling Fox News’s Maria Bartiromo in an interview that aired on Sunday that it would be “no big deal” if he were to extend a July 9 deadline before reciprocal tariffs to kick in. (Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent suggested the same last week). But Trump added, “I don’t think I’ll need to.”
Ultimately, the president may be accepting reality, as administration officials acknowledge the difficulty in striking quick deals, Politico reports.
Market bulls are heartened. S&P 500 futures point to a solid open after Friday’s record close, with investors betting the Fed may lower borrowing costs soon to bolster a slowing economy, as consumers pull back on spending.
That puts added focus on Thursday’s jobs report. Any sign of significant cooling in the labor market could put additional pressure on the Fed.
Andrew Hollenhorst, an economist at Citi, wrote in a research note on Friday that the first cut of the year could come at the July meeting if the unemployment rate rises to around 4.5 percent, from the current 4.2 percent. The futures market on Monday morning was pricing in roughly two cuts by year-end, with the first coming in September.
Watch what Jay Powell, the Fed chair, has to say on Tuesday at the European Central Bank’s annual confab in Sintra, Portugal. The event has taken on more significance after a warning on Sunday by the Bank for International Settlements that the trade wars could reignite inflation.
There’s one more thing markets are watching: Powell and Trump. The president has been pushing Powell to cut rates or resign — an unrelenting attack on the independence of the central bank that, when combined with the deficit-expanding G.O.P. policy bill, could destabilize investor demand for U.S. financial assets, economists warn.
“I even ask them, ‘Is there anything you want me to say to prove that I’m a real human?’ ”
— Jessica Lindsey, a customer service agent for the outsourcing services provider Concentrix, on callers who question if she is actually an artificial intelligence bot. (She can’t always convince them.)
Mamdani vs. the billionaire class
As many of New York City’s business elites study ways to stop Zohran Mamdani, the democratic socialist who won the Democratic mayoral primary, he doubled down on Sunday on some of the policies that are making them nervous.
“I don’t think that we should have billionaires,” Mamdani told “Meet the Press” on NBC News. “Because frankly, it is so much money in a moment of such inequality.” He added, “I look forward to work with everyone, including billionaires, to make a city that is fairer for all of them.”
Mamdani intends to fund many of his ambitious plans — including a rent freeze and free city buses — in part by raising the corporate tax rate and income taxes for the city’s millionaires by two percentage points, and by having the city issue tens of billions in new debt. On Sunday, he said the tax increase on millionaires had “broad support.”
Further worrying some executives was Mamdani’s refusal to condemn the phrase “globalize the intifada,” though he added that he would be a mayor who “protects Jewish New Yorkers” if elected.
Some business leaders haven’t let up on their criticism. Among them is Bill Ackman, the billionaire financier who backed Andrew Cuomo in the primary and on Sunday reposted an X message “from the perspective of someone who helped @AOC win, and now sees the light.”
Still, Mamdani on Sunday reaffirmed his commitment to his tax plans, citing benefits for the wealthiest New Yorkers, too. “The reason I want to increase these taxes on the top 1 percent, the most profitable corporations, is to increase quality of life for everyone, including those who are going to be taxed,” he told “Meet the Press.”
One problem: Gov. Kathy Hochul, who would have to sign off on the increase, says she’s deeply opposed.
President Trump is starting to target Mamdani, too. In an interview with Fox News that aired on Sunday, Trump, a billionaire himself, threatened to withhold federal funding from New York City. “He’s going to have to do the right thing or they’re not getting any money,” Trump said. (The president also claimed that Mamdani is a communist, which Mamdani denied.)
But how corporate leaders will actually move to stop Mamdani remains unclear. Some — including Dan Loeb of the hedge fund Third Point, Shayne Coplan of the prediction market Polymarket and Rob Wiesenthal of the aviation company Blade — have met with Mayor Eric Adams, The Times previously reported.
And Bloomberg has reported that some Republican donors are examining if there is a way to remove Curtis Sliwa, a longtime social activist who is the GOP nominee, from the ballot to give that line to Adams. But state election law makes that exceedingly tricky, and Sliwa has said he doesn’t plan to step aside.
That said, bets on Polymarket and a rival prediction market, Kalshi, suggest that Adams, whom polls have shown is deeply unpopular, faces long-shot odds.
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Bonus: CNN’s inside account of how Cuomo lost to Mamdani in the primary, despite having raised tens of millions from business leaders and others.
THE SPEED READ
Deals
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The Justice Department settled its lawsuit seeking to block Hewlett Packard Enterprise’s $14 billion deal for Juniper Networks. (Reuters)
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In I.P.O. news: Lens Technology, a major supplier to Apple, is seeking to raise roughly $600 million in a Hong Kong listing; and Klarna is accelerating its push into digital banking as it prepares a second attempt to go public. (Bloomberg, FT)
Tech and artificial intelligence
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Hundreds of children have reportedly lost access to schooling after Mark Zuckerberg and his wife, Priscilla Chan, pulled back on their philanthropic efforts (WaPo)
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Can you spot the difference between A.I.-generated videos and the real thing? (NYT)
Best of the rest
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An investigation into the ties between Sheikh Mansour bin Zayed al-Nahyan, the Emirati owner of the Manchester City soccer club, and some of Africa’s most notorious warlords and autocrats. (NYT)
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“The Mysterious Billionaire Behind the OnlyFans Porn Empire” (WSJ)
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Andrew Ross Sorkin is a columnist and the founder of DealBook, the flagship business and policy newsletter at The Times and an annual conference.
Bernhard Warner is a senior editor for DealBook, a newsletter from The Times, covering business trends, the economy and the markets.
Sarah Kessler is the weekend edition editor of the DealBook newsletter and writes features on business.
Michael J. de la Merced has covered global business and finance news for The Times since 2006.
Danielle Kaye is a Times business reporter and a 2024 David Carr Fellow, a program for journalists early in their careers.
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