President Donald Trump’s push to pass his massive agenda in the Senate is hanging by thread as GOP leaders barrel toward a critical vote this weekend that, as of midday Saturday, was still short of the support to pass.
Just hours after Senate Majority Leader John Thune informed senators they would take a critical first vote on Saturday, a key GOP senator warned he would vote against proceeding to the package unless there are major changes – and several other holdouts are uncertain on how they’ll land.
That warning shot came from Sen. Thom Tillis, a North Carolina Republican who is up for reelection next November and has been one of the most vocal critics of proposed Medicaid cuts used to help pay for Trump’s tax and spending cuts package.
Speaking to reporters Friday, Tillis again raised concerns over the bill’s “fundamentals” and cuts to Medicaid and suggested his vote wouldn’t change unless the measure “transforms radically overnight.”
Losing Tillis on Saturday’s expected procedural vote – which will be closely watched by Trump – would be a major blow to Senate GOP leaders, who can only afford to lose three Republican votes to advance the bill.
Thune and GOP leaders have spent months building to this moment, racing to draft the bill as quickly as possible in an effort to ensure Trump’s agenda is on his desk by the Fourth of July.
Just before midnight on Friday, Senate Republicans released the latest, 940-page version of the president’s domestic policy bill that they want to bring to the floor as early as Saturday afternoon. But more changes could be coming: One Senate GOP aide cautioned this was not the final policy proposal and talks are ongoing with GOP holdouts. The Senate parliamentarian also has yet to rule on certain language, including the contentious provider tax language.
If the bill fails its first procedural vote on Saturday, GOP leaders will have to retool the package, amounting to a huge setback for Trump. And it’s not just about that Independence Day timeline: GOP leaders fear that any delay in passing Trump’s agenda would embolden the party’s critics to seek more changes – which could lead their fragile coalition to fall apart.
Already, outspoken fiscal hawk Sen. Rand Paul is planning to vote against it over the plan’s inclusion of a $5 trillion debt-limit increase. And Tillis is not the only Republican threatening to oppose the bill over the proposed cuts to Medicaid. Sens. Josh Hawley, Lisa Murkowski, Jerry Moran and Collins have all made similar remarks as they’ve worked with leadership to trim those provisions.
But simply restoring that Medicaid funding may not be enough to win Thune those votes on the floor – it could also cost him votes among Senate GOP hardliners. Sen. Ron Johnson has railed on how the bill is projected to balloon the budget deficit, and another fiscal hawk, Sen. Mike Lee, has suggested he and Johnson along with Sen. Rick Scott could vote as a bloc on Saturday. Johnson indicated Saturday morning in an interview with Fox News that he is not going to vote for the motion to proceed “right now.” Lee and Scott have yet to say how they’ll vote on the key initial procedural vote Saturday.
If all goes to plan, Senate leaders will land the 51 GOP votes to formally begin debating Trump’s agenda and then tee up one of the chamber’s storied traditions: a series of round-the-clock amendment votes known as vote-a-rama. Democrats will use this overnight session to push on any number of GOP weak points on the bill, particularly Medicaid and other safety net programs.
The Senate could then vote on final passage sometime in the middle of the night Saturday or Sunday morning. And if successful, the House would return mid-week to take up the bill with the hope of Trump signing it at the White House on July 4.
One of the biggest hurdles for Republicans is the race to rewrite text in compliance with the Senate’s complex budget rules, which are governed by the nonpartisan parliamentarian.
In recent days, the parliamentarian has ruled against key GOP provisions – from the so-called provider tax, which helps states fund their Medicaid programs, to some provisions of a government spectrum auction. That forces the Senate GOP to dial back those provisions, or else Trump’s bill would be subject to a Democratic filibuster.
The Senate GOP’s newest version includes changes to that contentious provider tax policy, though it’s not yet clear if it’s palatable to the Republican holdouts. The Senate’s new language also formalizes other compromises in recent days, such as the deal between Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and a group of New York Republicans who have demanded bigger tax breaks for state and local taxes, known as SALT. That group won a major increase in the amount of taxes that households can deduct – up to $40,000, from the current $10,000 – but only for five years, rather than the full decade they had sought.
Senate Republicans also further weakened key energy tax credits for wind and solar and phased out a consumer credit to help buy electric vehicles by September of this year.
Ahead of the overnight release of the bill text, several Republicans said Friday evening that they needed to see the final legislation before judging whether they would open debate on the sweeping measure.
“I don’t have the bill, how can I vote on something I don’t know” what’s in it, Johnson said.
Hawley, who has been deeply concerned about Medicaid cuts, also said the vote hinges on what’s in the bill: “Got to see the text.”
Multiple GOP senators dismissed concerns about speeding ahead with the vote without final text in hand.
“We discussed this thing ad nauseam,” Ohio Sen. Bernie Moreno said, estimating that Republicans have met on this bill for “thousands” of hours so far this year. “The final tax is not out. But we know where we are going.”
Sen. Eric Schmitt of Missouri added: “When you have legislation like this, you’re going to have things you need to work through until the very end.”
This story has been updated with additional developments.
CNN’s Lauren Fox, Ella Nilsen, David Wright and Riane Lumer contributed to this report.
The post GOP support for Trump agenda in limbo as Senate barrels toward weekend vote appeared first on CNN.
