BEIRUT — Ceasefires are often frustrating, touch-and-go affairs, so when President Trump delivered an expletive-laced dressing-down to Israel and Iran on Tuesday, accusing both sides of violating the truce, many wondered whether the agreement would succeed.
Initial signs seemed discouraging. The ceasefire ended the bloodiest bout of violence in the decades-long grudge match between Iran and Israel, but the hours after its immediate announcement saw some of the fiercest fighting in the 12-day war. Israel then accused Iran of firing missiles after the deadline and scrambled planes to pound Tehran before an infuriated Trump called Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who ordered them to turn back.
After that shaky start, the truce remained in place Wednesday, even as both sides warily eyed each other and threatened to restart military action if needed.
But with questions mounting over the impact of the combined U.S. and Israeli onslaught on Iran’s nuclear facilities and military infrastructure — the very reason Israel launched its campaign in the first place — a return to hostilities could be a matter of when, not if. Another pressing question: Was Iran’s nuclear program severely damaged — as Trump maintains — or just hobbled?
On Tuesday, a classified report by the Pentagon’s intelligence branch, the Defense Intelligence Agency, assessed that U.S. strikes, which dropped 14 30,000-pound “bunker buster” bombs and fired Tomahawk missiles over the weekend on Iranian nuclear installations in Fordo, Natanz and Isfahan, failed to destroy core components of Iran’s nuclear program and that any setback would be a matter of a few months.
The assessment, first reported by CNN, spurred infuriated retorts from Trump administration officials and Trump himself, who during a NATO summit in Europe on Wednesday lashed out at media reporting on the assessment, calling them “scum” and saying Iran’s nuclear ambitions have been set back decades.
“That hit ended the war…. Can you imagine after all that they say, ‘Oh, let’s go and do a bomb,’” Trump said in a news conference. “They’re not going to have a bomb and they’re not going to enrich.”
Iran, which portrays the ceasefire as a victory, has taken the opposite tack, with officials saying the program will continue.
Mohammad Eslami, head of the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran, said Tuesday that damage assessments to the targeted sites were ongoing, but the government “planned ahead of time” to prevent any interruption to its nuclear program.
Iran had long insisted it is developing its nuclear capabilities for peaceful purposes. Israel and Trump say it plans to build nuclear weapons.
Another Iranian official said that despite Israel’s assassination of many nuclear scientists, the country’s nuclear know-how remains intact. Satellite imagery from the days ahead of the attack showed truck activity near Fordo, Iran’s main uranium enrichment site, suggesting that Iran’s uranium stockpile and its centrifuge capabilities were moved ahead of the strikes and remain unaccounted for, experts say.
During his news conference in The Hague, Trump dismissed the notion that Iran had enough time to move its stockpiles.
“It’s very hard to remove that kind of material, very hard and very dangerous for them to remove it,” Trump said. “Plus they knew we were coming, and if they know we’re coming, they’re not going to be down there.”
Trump said the U.S. attacks all but eliminated Iran’s enrichment program. A high-ranking Israeli official, who requested anonymity to speak candidly, told The Times that Israel’s preliminary assessment indicates Iran’s nuclear infrastructure suffered widespread destruction.
Regardless of the strikes’ effectiveness, Iran appears set to further push its nuclear program underground.
On Wednesday, the country’s parliament voted to suspend cooperation with the United Nations’ International Atomic Energy Agency, according to the state media outlet. The vote is largely symbolic, because a decision of this nature would be up to the Supreme National Security Council, the governing body overseen by Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
Last week, IAEA chief Rafael Grossi said Iran has enough material for “several warheads” but that was not the same as having a nuclear weapon.
“We do not have at this point — if you ask me, at this time — any tangible proof that there is a program, or a plan, to fabricate, to manufacture a nuclear weapon,” he said.
On June 12, the IAEA’s Board of Governors declared Iran had breached its nonproliferation obligations for the first time in almost 20 years. Israel began its attacks a day later.
Some Iranian officials have suggested it could withdraw from the Nonproliferation Treaty, the landmark 1970 agreement that legitimized nuclear arms for the five permanent members of the U.N. Security Council but proscribed their development for other nations. Signatories can access non-military atomic technology so long as they do not pursue weaponization and submit to IAEA monitoring to ensure no diversion of nuclear fuel.
“We have worked for many years to demonstrate to the world that we are committed to the NPT and are willing to work within its framework, but unfortunately, this treaty has not been able to protect us or our nuclear program,” Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said in an interview with Qatari news outlet Al Araby Al Jadeed this week.
“I think that our view on our nuclear program and the nonproliferation regime will witness changes, but it is not possible to say in what direction.”
If Iran were to withdraw, it would be following North Korea’s playbook. Pyongyang pulled out of the treaty in 2003, justifying its move with fears that the U.S. was planning a preemptive attack; it conducted its first nuclear weapons test three years later. India, Pakistan and Israel never signed the agreement. Israel is the only country in the Middle East with nuclear warheads.
In the meantime, the extent of Israel’s intelligence penetration of Iran — aptly demonstrated on June 13 when Israeli forces disabled Iranian air defenses while tracking and killing top military commanders and veteran nuclear scientists — has pushed the Iranian government’s paranoia to extreme levels.
Iranian state-affiliated media said intelligence and security forces in the country arrested more than 700 suspects in an Israeli “spy network” during the 12-day war. On Wednesday, the government executed three people over allegations they spied for Israel, adding to a spate of hangings for espionage that have taken place in recent days.
In the spring, Iranian and U.S. officials met to discuss Iran’s nuclear program and during Trump’s visit to the Middle East in May, he said the United States and Iran “may be” getting close to a deal on what Tehran could, or could not do, with nuclear technology. Administration officials say the U.S. and Iran are already in preliminary discussions about resuming negotiations.
But commentators say a major factor determining Tehran’s return to the table is whether Trump can ensure no more Israeli attacks, or his willingness to countenance Israeli military action, as he does in Lebanon, whose government accuses Israel of near-daily violations of a November ceasefire that ended the war with the Lebanese militant group Hezbollah. Israel says it is acting to prevent Hezbollah from reconstituting itself.
“Does Trump have the ability to restrict Netanyahu’s freedom of action inside Iran?” said Ellie Geranmayeh, a senior policy fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations.
“If he’s able to really set fire under Netanyahu’s feet and say, ‘No more,’ then the Iranians will open up to direct engagement with the Americans.”
But Trump suggested Wednesday that while talks might resume, they may not be necessary.
“I’ll tell you what, we’re going to talk with them next week, with Iran. We may sign an agreement, I don’t know,” Trump said. But he added that there wasn’t need for an agreement because the U.S. destroyed Iran’s nuclear program. “The way I look at it, they fought, the war is done,” he said.
Times staff writer Michael Wilner in The Hague contributed to this report.
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