The American population is becoming older, with the proportion of baby boomers increasing while birth rates are declining, according to the newly released Vintage 2024 Population Estimates by the U.S. Census Bureau.
The population aged 65 and older increased by 3.1 percent, to 61.2 million, while the population of those under age 18 decreased by 0.2 percent, to 73.1 million, from 2023 to 2024, the data revealed.
Why It Matters
America’s aging population, coinciding with falling birth rates, has become a growing concern and reflects the wider anxieties felt in the country in regard to economic security and changing societal choices.
Fertility rates are projected to average 1.6 births per woman over the next three decades, according to the Congressional Budget Office‘s latest forecast, which is well below the level of 2.1 births per woman required to maintain a stable population without immigration.
What To Know
The new Census Bureau data shows that the U.S. population has continued to age, with the share of the population aged 65 and older steadily increasing from 12.4 percent in 2004 to 18 percent in 2024, and the share of children declining from 25 percent to 21.5 percent.
“Older people today, including baby boomers, live longer than past generations,” Phillip Levine, a professor of economics at Wellesley College, Massachusetts, told Newsweek.
He added that this, alongside falling birth rates, and the fact that in many states outmigration is greater than in migration, will “increase the share of baby boomers in a state.”
While America’s population is aging, children still “outnumber older adults in the United States, despite a decline in births this decade,” Lauren Bowers, chief of the Census Bureau’s Population Estimates Branch, said.
The “gap is narrowing as baby boomers continue to age into their retirement years,” she added. “In fact, the number of states and counties where older adults outnumber children is on the rise, especially in sparsely populated areas.”
Birth rates are declining for many reasons, Karen Guzzo, director of the Carolina Population Center at UNC Chapel Hill, told Newsweek, one being “young people have become increasingly able to avoid getting pregnant when they do not wish to have a child.”
“Prior to the Great Recession, the U.S. enjoyed relatively high birth rates compared to many of its peer nations. One of the main reasons for this is the relatively high share of births to those in their teens and early 20s, much of which are the result of unintended pregnancies,” she said.
She said that people’s fertility goals – whether they want and plan to have children – have not changed “dramatically” over time, but they are “more cautious and ambivalent about whether they will actually have children.”
“My research shows that people’s uncertainty about their current and future circumstances make them feel as if they have to avoid having a child right now, and then when people continuously postpone having children, some will end up not having any children and some will end up with fewer than they would like,” Guzzo said.
“Economic instability can lead people to not have children—children can be expensive,” Siobhan O’Keefe, a professor of economics at Davidson College, North Carolina, told Newsweek. “If you don’t feel confident in your ability provide for a child, you may opt-out of parenthood.”
She added that it is also becoming “more socially acceptable to remain childless.”
America’s declining birth rates have been shaping governmental policy in recent months, with President Donald Trump making the issue one of his priorities, such as giving women a “baby bonus” of $5,000 to encourage them to have more children.
He also signed an executive order to expand access to in vitro fertilization (IVF) for Americans.
The Department of Transportation has also been directed to give precedence to “communities with marriage and birth rates higher than the national average.”
There is also legislation being deliberated in the Senate over whether to make maternity care an essential health benefit under the Affordable Care Act, so that insurance companies would have to pay the full costs of childbirth-related expenses.
Other legislation to support mothers, particularly during challenging phases such as prenatal, postpartum, and early childhood development, has also been proposed by U.S. Senators.
What People Are Saying
Karen Guzzo, director of the Carolina Population Center at UNC Chapel Hill, told Newsweek: “I am not worried about birth rates at the aggregate level, but it is concerning that people are unable to fulfill their own childbearing goals. At the aggregate level, while lower birth rates have implications leads to population aging, because the ratio of young people to older people shifts, and the labor market, there are other responses to address these issues that trying to raise birth rates by engaging in direct pronatalist policy efforts.”
She added: “We could change how we fund Social Security, for instance, by raising or eliminating the cap or by raising the tax rate. It is worth addressing the issues that young adults say are preventing them from having children, like uncertainty about the future, poor economic prospects, high costs of living, and unfriendly work environments. We will need to figure out how to care for a growing older-age population, but it can certainly be done by investing in health care and the health professions.”
Siobhan O’Keefe, professor of economics at Davidson College, North Carolina, told Newsweek: “While I don’t agree with the rhetoric that this is some type of apocalypse, there are reasons to be concerned by falling birth rates. First, in the U.S. the Social Security system depends on having prime age adults working and paying into the system to support those who have already retired.”
She added: “Today’s babies are tomorrow’s labor force—so if the birth rate falls while the retired fraction of the population increases, the system cannot function as intended. Second, if people are not having children they want because they don’t feel they can provide for them, this tells us that the American economy is not providing people meaningful livelihoods and security, which is very concerning to me.”
Phillip Levine, professor of economics at Wellesley College, Massachusetts, told Newsweek: “Any simple argument provided for why the birth rate is falling is likely to explain, at best, a small share of the change. In past work, Melissa Kearney talked about the role that ‘shifting priorities’ play. Young people today have more options regarding how to spend their time, they face greater constraints at work, and raising children today is harder than it used to be. These and other factors can lead them to ‘choose’ to have fewer children today than past generations.”
He added: “There are substantial implications of such changes for a state or for society more broadly. Schools will suffer enrollment declines, firms will find it harder to find workers, and supporting an older population will become harder. At a national level, funding the Social Security system will become more difficult. Overall economic activity will suffer as the level of innovation may suffer. Population decline will cause problems for society, as other countries are already starting to experience.”
What Happens Next
Trump was found to have a positive impact on birth rates in the country in his first term, and by putting the issue of America’s aging population at the forefront of his political agenda, it seems he wants to ensure birth rates also rise under his second term as president.
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