A tentative ceasefire between Israel and Iran had gone into effect in what should go down in history as the “12 Day War,” according to President Donald Trump who emerges one of the winners from the conflict while other political figures appear diminished.
The agreement remains fragile, with Trump accusing both nations of violating the ceasefire just a few hours after it came into effect. If the ceasefire does hold, then experts tell Newsweek that Israel’s leader Benjamin Netanyahu is a big winner from the conflict, while Iran’s Ayotallah Ali Khamenei is a big loser.
Emmanuel Navan, senior fellow at the Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security, told Newsweek Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu will make the most of the political capital from Operation Rising Lion.
“I have been very critical of Netanyahu in the past, but what he’s pulled off is absolutely fantastic,” he said Tuesday.
Nazenin Ansari, managing editor of Kayhan London, a Persian-language digital newspaper and Kayhan Life, an English-language digital publication, told Newsweek Ayatollah Ali Khamenei “has been effectively de-fanged.”
While the region is on tenterhooks over whether any peace can hold, Newsweek takes a look at some of the early winners and losers of the conflict.
Donald Trump – Winner
Trump had history in mind in when he said the ceasefire plan his administration proposed to Israel and Iran had ended the “12 Day War.” This was a nod to the 1967 conflict also known as the “Six Day War,” in which Israel fought a group of Arab countries including Egypt, Jordan and Syria.
Trump’s announcement followed fears over how Iran might respond to American bunker-busting bombs that the U.S. president said had destroyed the Islamic Republic’s nuclear sites on Saturday.
Trump had previously said he would wait two weeks and the surprise strikes showed at least initially he was able to order an attack without an immediate escalation and ceasefire bragging rights.
Trump went out of his way to signal that Saturday’s U.S. strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities were a targeted, one-off campaign, not the beginning of a broader effort to topple the regime Rosemary Kelanic, director of the Middle East program at the think tank Defense Priorities told Newsweek.
“Iran seems to have taken that off-ramp and responded with an expected and telegraphed counterattack,” she said, referring to Monday’s strikes by Iran on a U.S. military site in Qatar.
Kelanic said Tehran’s choice to limit its retaliation and deescalate the crisis was rational given overwhelming U.S. strength and Iranian weakness. “It is also welcome news that President Trump refocused his efforts on peace not only between the U.S. and Iran, but also Israel and Iran,” she added.
Benjamin Netanyahu – Winner
The launch of Operation Rising Lion on June 13 was a gamble for Netanyahu but by persuading Trump to join the fight to destroy targets that Israeli warplanes could not reach, Iran’s nuclear ambitions remain thwarted—at least for the short term.
The ceasefire that Israel has agreed to could cement the Israeli prime minister’s reputation 20 months on from the intelligence failures that preceded the October 7 2023 Hamas attacks which dealt a blow to his security credentials.
“The fact that he finally undertook this military operation against Iran and that it was very successful is an amazing achievement for him personally and for the country,” said Navan, who praised his coordination with the U.S.
“I have been critical of him but I lift my hat to him, I think it’s absolutely extraordinary,” said Navan, predicting that Netanyahu is not going to waste the rise in his political stock.
If early elections were held after the summer, he had an excellent chance of being elected again “because what he has achieved is simply phenomenal,” said Navan, “I used to roll my eyes when people compared him to Churchill, but I think that now the comparison actually is deserved.”
Boeing – Winner
The U.S. strikes on nuclear sites on Saturday were the first combat use of the GBU-57 MOP bunker busting bombs developed by Boeing for the U.S. Air Force.
The delivery of 14 bombs, 12 of which on the Fordow Nuclear Facility and two on the Natanz Nuclear Facility, caused severe damage to both sites, according to General Dan Caine, Chairman of the U.S Joint Chiefs of Staff
Trump went further, saying they were “completely and totally obliterated,” although current and former Pentagon officials said that the full extent of the damage to Iran’s nuclear capabilities was not immediately clear.
Jennifer Kavanagh, senior fellow & director of military analysis, Defense Priorities, told Newsweek “my guess is that Iran’s nuclear program was not obliterated, it is hard to say how much damage was done to the actual nuclear enrichment site.”
However, she added, “at the very least the U.S. and Israeli strikes have set the Iranian nuclear program back further, so there is no imminent threat.”
The messaging from the U.S. and Israel about the bomb’s effectiveness will give a boost to Boeing after a string of bad news—most recently the tragedy of its 787 passenger jet in India crashing minutes after takeoff this month killing all but one onboard.
It followed previous crashes in 2018 and 2019 of its 737 airplane while in 2024, it posted a loss of $11.8 billion in 2024, bringing total losses since 2019 to over $35 billion.
Ayatollah Ali Khameini – Loser
The future of the regime of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei following the conflict is uncertain following the loss of the Islamic Republic’s military and scientific leaders from the Israeli and U.S. operations.
Derided by Reza Pahlavi, the exiled son of Iran’s last monarch for going into hiding “like a frightened rat” during Israel’s attacks, Khamenei now commands a smaller power group of commanders, scientists and regional proxies.
“The Islamic Republic stands as a shadow of its former self, a diminished entity grappling with the consequences of its overreach,” said Ansari.
She said the question is whether his “armed thugs and supporters” unleash their fury upon civil society, escalating arrests and executions and how quickly and extensively will defections ripple through the regime, particularly within the ranks of the internal security forces, army, and intelligence services.
Hamidreza Azizi, visiting fellow at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs, told Newsweek there is a mix of disbelief, frustration, and anger among regime supporters who for years were promised any attack by Israel—or any misstep by Israel or the U.S.—would mark the end of the Israeli state.
“Now, they see themselves and their country humiliated by repeated Israeli strikes, by Israeli fighter jets operating with near total freedom in Iranian airspace, and by the lack of a decisive response capable of restoring balance between the two sides,” he said.
Vladimir Putin – Loser
Vladimir Putin received Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi in the Kremlin on Monday during which the Russian president condemned “the unprovoked aggression against Iran” by Israel and the U.S.
However, Iran has not been impressed with its ally’s support, according to Reuters citing Iranian sources, and despite Putin touting a partnership deal in January, Moscow has offered little other than its condemnation over the last two weeks.
That 20-year Russian-Iranian Treaty on Comprehensive Strategic Partnership signed had no mutual defense clause, but Iran’s backing for Russia’s war in Ukraine with Shahed drones appears not to have been reciprocated.
Half a year on from the collapse of Putin’s ally Bashar al-Assad in Syria, Moscow now faces a regional partner whose regime is diminished.
Tulsi Gabbard – Loser
U.S. Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard faced a rebuff from Trump over her testimony on Capitol Hill in March that Iran was not building a nuclear weapon and that Khamenei, had not authorized the nuclear weapons program.
When asked about the intelligence assessment, Trump said “she’s wrong,” later making a similar statement aboard Air Force One.
Gabbard responded that her testimony was taken out of context and that U.S. intelligence showed Iran can produce a nuclear weapon “within weeks to months, if they decide to finalize the assembly.” She added that Trump “has been clear that can’t happen, and I agree.”
Tucker Carlson – Loser
Meanwhile, conservative TV host Tucker Carlson became the most high-profile anti-intervention figure, accusing Senator Ted Cruz of knowing little about Iran ” whose government he seeks to “topple,” in an interview clip that went viral.
Despite being a long-time supporter, Carlson’s rhetoric toward Trump has been increasingly critical. But his condemnation of intervention in Iran was at odds with the Trump administration whose role in the conflict has splintered the MAGA coalition, a wing of which opposes American involvement in foreign wars.
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