For over than three decades, Iran built a web of proxy networks to push its battles far beyond its borders – keeping enemies at bay, as Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei tightened his grip on power. Direct strikes on Iran remained inconceivable.
That image of invincibility crumbled in the space of hours on June 13, when Israel launched a surprise, unprecedented attack deep inside Iran, shattering Tehran’s sense of security and unraveling its carefully cultivated aura of strength.
Its strikes took out top military leaders and some of Iran’s most prominent nuclear scientists, including a few as they slept at home with their families. The human toll was significant, with 627 killed, including at least 49 women and 13 children, according to Hossein Kermanpour, head of the information center at the Ministry of Health. The US joined Israel’s campaign on Sunday, striking three nuclear sites before declaring a ceasefire between Israel and Iran the day after.
Many in Iran and abroad now fear the country’s leadership – its pride and defenses wounded – may tighten its grip at home while adopting a much more hawkish stance in both domestic and foreign policy.
Israel and the US had floated regime change as a potential outcome of their attacks on Iran, which they hoped would result in a state more friendly to them. Their failure to bring this about has prompted the regime to claim victory.
Iran’s leadership has shown resilience, replacing those it lost and carrying out a harsh crackdown on those it sees as being complicit in Israel’s assault.
Signs also point to a regime that is much more paranoid, and likely to rule with a tighter fist at home in fear of cooperation with its enemies.
‘A wounded regime’
After three years of rule by a conservative government led by Ebrahim Raisi, Iran last year elected reformist Masoud Pezeshkian, who had campaigned for dialogue with Iran’s foes, and presented that as a means to address the country’s domestic issues.
For many Iranians, he was seen as the last hope to deliver a nuclear agreement with the West and re-integrate Iran into the international community.
During the 12-day conflict, Iran repeatedly struck back at Israel, causing extensive damage to major cities like Tel Aviv and killing 28 people. Its ability to retaliate under fire won praise at home, even among those CNN spoke with who are opposed to the regime.
“People are at the moment feeling very nationalistic. We just went through a war together that everyone feels was unjustified, so the government has a degree of goodwill,” said Ali, 36. “They put us in the firing line with their policies but generally, they handled the war well.”
But it’s what happens next that has many Iranians concerned. There are growing fears of an imminent crackdown on reformists and calls for change, as the regime moves to root out perceived collaborators with Israel. By Wednesday, authorities had arrested 700 people accused of being “mercenaries of Israel,” state-affiliated Fars News Agency reported.
Neda, a 45-year-old Iranian, said she believes the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), an elite wing of the Iranian military that is sanctioned by the US, “will likely get stronger, consolidating even more power,” especially if a disorganized leadership creates a power vacuum.
Khamenei is reportedly hiding in a bunker, with little access to communications, and has yet to be seen in public since Israel and Iran reached the ceasefire, which came into effect on Tuesday.
“They (government) were strong in their show of force (against Israel) and that will at least for some time play well,” Neda told CNN. “There’s no telling if the gains we made (in bringing reform) over the past few years will remain. What was it all for? We’ve always known change must come from the inside and that was happening. Now where do we find ourselves?”
All the Iranians who spoke with CNN did so under the condition of anonymity out of fear for their safety.
Arash Azizi, a New York City-based Iran expert and author of the book “What Iranians Want,” said Iranians are likely worried about “a wounded regime coming after them and closing the political and civic space further.”
Repression might worsen, he told CNN, adding that the Iranian opposition abroad has proven itself to be “inept and politically irrelevant,” while civil society at home is “on the defensive.”
Experts say that the attacks on Iran have only emboldened conservatives who have long felt that the West and Israel cannot be trusted and that negotiations are merely a tactic to weaken the country. The fate of reformers and pragmatists now hangs in the balance, and only time will tell whether they survive the change in the leadership’s ranks that is likely coming, they said.
“The attacks have bolstered hardliners who argue that diplomacy with the West is futile and that Iran must remain militarily self-reliant,” Sina Toossi, a senior fellow at the Washington, DC-based Center for International Policy, told CNN. “Reformist voices, pro-engagement with the West forces, have been marginalized in this climate.”
“In the short term, hardliners are likely to prevail,” he said. “But that may shift depending on the broader outcome of the conflict and whether diplomatic efforts with the US pay off.”
On Sunday, the US joined Israel’s campaign against Iran, striking three nuclear facilities and risking a full-blown war with the Islamic Republic. But US President Donald Trump subsequently announced the ceasefire between Israel and Iran, preserving the regime that he later said he didn’t want to change because it “would lead to chaos.”
“The broader lesson is that the Islamic Republic is not invincible, but neither is it easily toppled,” Toossi said.
Israel’s attack on Iran did not lead to popular uprisings, but rather a show of unity amongst Iranians who saw their country as being attacked in an unprovoked war, even as they remain wary of the repression that may follow.
“Whether people are supporters of our government or not, there is an anger we feel about Trump and Israel,” Reza, a 35-year-old man in Iran, told CNN.
Khamenei’s political fate
The longest serving leader in the Middle East, Khamanei has ruled with an iron fist for more than 35 years, quashing protests since at least 2005.
As the highest authority in Iran, much of the country’s domestic and foreign policy is influenced, if not shaped, by him.
Some experts say that despite the show of national unity after the conflict with Israel, there is likely frustration with Khamenei.
“He was too cautious when he had to be bold, and too bold when he had to be cautious,” said Ali Vaez, director of the Iran Project at the International Crisis Group, adding that the cleric is likely seen as having destroyed Iran’s deterrence and “rendered the country vulnerable.”
“A lot of the blame is put on him and his decision making – his inflexibility at the negotiating table, his defiance in the face of much stronger conventional military powers,” Vaez told CNN. When the dust settles, there may be questions about the ailing leader and his decisions over the years, he said.
Questions may also arise about the role and the importance of a Supreme Leader in the long term, according to Vaez.
“There is a strong desire from the Revolutionary Guards and military forces in Iran to double down and adopt a much more entrenched position, further militarizing the internal sphere and even eventually pursuing nuclear weapons as the ultimate deterrent,” Vaez said.
The paranoia around Israel’s infiltration in government will likely lead to a “purge” at the top level of the system, which might lead hardliners to prevail, he added.
The fate of reformist Pezeshkian and his moderate camp remains unclear. While the Supreme Leader remained in hiding, it was Pezeshkian who spoke to Iranians, making public statements and even attending an anti-war protest in Tehran.
Still, reformists aren’t escaping public anger. A 42-year-old woman in Iran questioned the viability of the current regime. “They’ve put us in a quagmire,” she told CNN. “This happened on a reformists’ watch.”
Experts say that the shattering of the regime’s aura of invincibility will change Iran, but how that shift plays out is uncertain and dependent on how the Iranian leadership and foreign powers react to the 12-day conflict.
For the Iranian people, a sense that they were at least safe within their country’s borders has been quashed.
“The Islamic Republic had one social contract with society, which is that it deprived them of all freedoms… in return for providing security,” Vaez said. “Now, that image has been shattered in the eyes of the Iranian people.”
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