A 12-day conflict between Israel and Iran showed how far Syria has moved from being one of Iran’s closest regional allies to alignment with U.S. President Donald Trump.
As the ceasefire takes hold between Iran and Israel, the damage done to the Islamic Republic further reduces the prospect of it returning to the once-dominant hold it had over Syria under the ousted government of former President Bashar al-Assad.
Newsweek has reached out to the Syrian government for comment.
Why It Matters
Syria sits at a crossroads in the Middle East between Iranian, Israeli, Turkish and U.S. interests and has for more than a decade been fought over by internal factions that often also serve as proxies for outside interests — including both states and U.S. designated terrorist groups such as Islamic State and Al-Qaeda.
What to Know
As Arab states rushed to condemn U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran’s nuclear sites and to call for diplomacy, Syria was notably absent.
President Ahmed al-Sharaa, once on the U.S. terrorist list but rapidly being rehabilitated, did not comment on the attacks.
Gulf allies long aligned with Washington in efforts to curb Shiite Iran’s regional influence, still do not seek to antagonize Tehran too much in fear of retaliation and the fallout of a broader war. But for Syria, also predominantly Sunni Muslim, the stakes are existential and the removal of just one of its two main enemies — Iran or Israel — gives it greater freedom to assert itself, regional analysts say.
“The interim government in Syria has been relentlessly pragmatic in cultivating ties to the U.S.,” Steven Heydemann, Nonresident Senior Fellow in the Center for Middle East Policy at the Brookings Institution, told Newsweek.
During the Israel-Iran conflict, intense aerial activity was reported over Syrian territory with Iranian missiles and drones being met with Israeli and American countermeasures. According to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR), 69 Iranian drones were intercepted and downed in Syrian airspace.
One intercepted Iranian drone crashed in the village of al-Asha in southern Quneitra countryside injuring a child, SOHR reported this week.
Proxy Battle Ground
For many Syrians, it is a reminder of how it became a proxy battle ground under the Iranian and Russian backed Assad government. Soon after Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), rebels led by Ahmed al-Sharaa overthrew Assad in December 2024, the new de-facto Syrian leader described Iran’s 40-year project in the region as a “disease”.
“This multi-directional escalation reinforces the reality of Syria as a proxy battleground, where the interests of major powers intersect and regional agendas clash, while the Syrian citizen remains trapped between the lines of fire, with no real protection and no political horizon in sight,” SOHR noted.
U.S. forces in northeastern Syria were able to reinforce positions in Hasakah amid fears of Iranian retaliation following Israeli and U.S. strikes. Israeli jets frequently made use of Syrian airspace.
“Syria is one place that Iran could use to retaliate against its enemies,” Director of Policy Analysis Department at Harmoon Center for Contemporary Studies Samir Alabdullah told Newsweek.
Shift Under Trump
The U.S. shift on Syria has been dramatic under Trump, who met al-Sharaa during a visit to the region in May and ordered the lifting of the sanctions that had been in place against it.
Though al‑Sharaa has criticized Israel’s expansion into Syrian territory, he remains heavily reliant on the U.S. for sanctions relief and investment—both crucial for rebuilding Syria and consolidating his power.
“Taking a stance against Israel might jeopardize that,” Alabdullah said.
Syria lacks the military capacity to deter Israel, and al‑Sharaa cannot risk provoking backlash from factions opposed to any engagement with it. Al‑Sharaa and Israel held secret talks ahead of Trump’s Middle East visit in May through a backchannel provided by the UAE, according to Reuters.
It is now seen as another potential signatory of the Abraham Accords between Israel and Arab states.
“If Saudi signs the Abraham Accords, it would break the barrier for Syria,” Alabdullah said.
Syria’s internal stability also remains uncertain. More than 20 people were killed in a suicide bombing at Mar Elias Church in Damascus as the Israel-Iran conflict peaked. The Syrian government blamed the attack on ISIS, which now threatens a resurgence in the region.
Syria remains sidelined as a power player for now, but that does not mean it is irrelevant, said Heydemann.
“Its recovery and reconstruction are critical for the stability and security of the entire Levant, for an end to the Captagon trade, the defeat of ISIS’ remaining forces in Syria’s east, for the potential return of millions of refugees, and for the potential Syria holds to become a major trade hub and important economic actor as its economy recovers,” he said.
What Happens Next
The top priorities for Syria’s current leadership are restoring internal stability, establishing full control and bringing in investment that can start to revive a shattered economy. But ISIS remains and growing threat and establishing relations with Israel would be divisive and could remain far down the line.
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