We are unlikely to know the winner of the Democratic primary race for mayor on primary night.
Polls show a close contest between two candidates, former Gov. Andrew M. Cuomo and Assemblyman Zohran Mamdani. In the ranked-choice election, voters can select up to five candidates in order of preference, and if neither man gets more than 50 percent of the first-place votes on Tuesday, a series of subsequent rounds will tally the final results based on voters’ second-through-fifth-place choices.
But that count will not take place until July 1, a week after the election, because absentee, mail-in and affidavit votes, which can be important in a close race, can be received and counted up until then.
Polls close in New York at 9 p.m., and first results will start to come shortly after that.
Here’s what else you’ll need to know ahead of Primary Day:
The math of ranked-choice voting
This is New York’s second mayoral primary election using the ranked-choice voting system. Vote counting proceeds in rounds, with the last-place candidate eliminated in each round. If a voter’s top choice is eliminated, the vote is then transferred to the voter’s next choice. Elimination rounds continue until there are two candidates left and one gets more than 50 percent of the vote.
Most reliable polls suggest that neither Mr. Mamdani nor Mr. Cuomo will receive more than 50 percent of the vote in the first round of vote counting on Tuesday night. But their performances will offer a look at who has the upper hand: The closer a candidate is to 50 percent, the better chance that candidate has to win in the end.
The first results to come in on Tuesday night, from a period of early voting that began more than a week ago, are likely to favor Mr. Mamdani. That’s because a jump in the number of early voters this year appears to be driven by younger voters, who tend to prefer Mr. Mamdani.
Bill Knapp, a strategist and consultant for Fix the City, the pro-Cuomo super PAC that has raised roughly $25 million from billionaire donors and corporate interests, acknowledged that the first votes counted would probably not favor Mr. Cuomo.
“Our voters tend to vote on Primary Day,” said Mr. Knapp, a veteran ad maker who worked on former Mayor Michael R. Bloomberg’s campaign. Mr. Bloomberg has given more than $8 million to the super PAC supporting Mr. Cuomo.
The margins separating the candidates will also be worth watching. Trip Yang, a Democratic political strategist who is not associated with any mayoral campaign, said that Mr. Cuomo’s campaign would be optimistic if the former governor ended the night with a lead of eight to 10 points but would feel worried if he was leading by five points or less. A victory by Mr. Mamdani would be one of the “biggest upsets” in the city’s modern history, he added.
“No one expected a 33-year-old socialist who’s been in the Assembly for four years to make it to the final two, outperforming a well-funded comptroller, a well-funded former comptroller, an established City Council speaker and multiple established state senators,” Mr. Yang said.
Who will vote, how old are they, and where do they live?
Where voters turn out can also be an important indicator. Mr. Yang expects Mr. Mamdani to do well with young, progressive voters in some Brooklyn neighborhoods, while Mr. Cuomo has a stronghold among older and more traditional Democratic voters.
“Zohran needs a huge turnout margin in Brooklyn,” said Mr. Yang. “Cuomo needs a big turnout margin in the Bronx.”
While Mr. Cuomo is relying on Black voters, Latinos and union members — the classic Democratic base — Mr. Mamdani is trying to bring out new voters, including young people, South Asians and Muslim New Yorkers.
“He has made it his task to reach beyond the most courted voters into the pockets of young people, infrequent voters, immigrant voters,” said Ana María Archila, a co-director of the New York Working Families Party.
Mr. Cuomo’s support among older voters is one of the reasons Mr. Mamdani was angling for a cross-endorsement from Adrienne Adams, the City Council speaker. She is a member of the Working Families Party slate, and her base of support is in Southeast Queens, an area known for high Black turnout.
“Any voter over 35, we’re doing OK with,” Mr. Knapp said. And Mr. Cuomo was winning resoundingly with voters over 50, he added.
Jewish voters have also been a focus during the campaign. Mr. Cuomo, a staunch supporter of Israel, has campaigned on combating antisemitism and voicing a strong defense of Israel to court Jewish voters, especially Orthodox Jews.
Mr. Cuomo has criticized Mr. Mamdani for calling the war in Gaza a “genocide” and for supporting the Boycott, Divestment and Sanctions movement. Fix the City has also spent money on ads attacking Mr. Mamdani on Jewish issues, some of which Mr. Mamdani has called Islamophobic.
“A lot of Orthodox conservatives and the moderate Jewish community are fired up against Zohran,” Mr. Yang said.
Still, though Mr. Mamdani has not moderated his position on Israel, he has polled well among some Jewish voters, reflecting significant opposition to the way Israel has conducted the war in Gaza among many more progressive Jews. Mr. Mamdani placed second with Jewish voters, with 20 percent, behind Mr. Cuomo’s 40 percent in a recent Marist poll. Brad Lander, the city comptroller, was third with 19 percent.
The cross-endorsement factor
When Mr. Lander and Michael Blake, a former assemblyman from the Bronx, threw their support behind Mr. Mamdani in the final weeks of the campaign, they did so in an effort to stop Mr. Cuomo’s momentum. Their efforts may work — Mr. Blake could bring some Black voters to Mr. Mamdani’s side, and should Mr. Lander fall short, large swaths of his supporters’ votes could go to Mr. Mamdani if they have ranked him second.
The Working Families Party picked a slate of candidates in an effort to keep Mr. Cuomo from winning the primary. Ms. Archila believes she is seeing the fruits of that labor. Zellnor Myrie, a state senator from Brooklyn, and Mr. Lander both released ads in recent days criticizing Mr. Cuomo.
Ms. Adams, who would not agree to a cross-endorsement with Mr. Mamdani, also issued a statement calling for her supporters to rank the Working Families Party slate and to leave Mr. Cuomo off their ballots.
Morris Katz, a senior adviser to Mr. Mamdani, said that because of the cross-endorsements, along with the coordination of the Working Families Party slate, he believes Mr. Mamdani could make up a deficit after the first ballot through ranked-choice votes.
“You have the leaders of our party pretty united behind not ranking Andrew Cuomo,” Mr. Katz said.
Mr. Cuomo did not cross-endorse anyone but received cross-endorsements from Jessica Ramos, a state senator from Queens, and Whitney Tilson, a former hedge fund manager.
This year, the general election matters
Whatever happens on Primary Day, New York voters are likely to see a competitive general election in November — perhaps the first for mayor since 2009, when William C. Thompson Jr., the former comptroller who had won the Democratic primary, came astoundingly close to toppling Mr. Bloomberg, who was seeking a third term.
The winner of the Democratic Primary will face off against Mayor Eric Adams, who is running as an independent following the dismissal by the Trump administration of his federal corruption indictment; Jim Walden, a lawyer who is running as an independent; and Curtis Sliwa, the Republican candidate.
If Mr. Cuomo loses the primary, he could also run in November on an independent line he created, called Fight and Deliver. And if he wins, the Working Families Party is likely to run a candidate in November on its line — perhaps Mr. Mamdani.
Mr. Cuomo, asked recently if he planned to run as an independent in November if he lost the Democratic Primary, would say only that “I’m on the ticket in November.”
Maya King is a Times reporter covering New York politics.
Jeffery C. Mays is a Times reporter covering politics with a focus on New York City Hall.
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