It is not exactly the end of a proverbial era: Nigerian President Bola Tinubu led the for just under two years as its rotating chairman. But in that short period, the main political and economic body in the region witnessed some of the biggest challenges in its history, which continue to leave their mark.
Against the background of continuing security concerns and terrorist attacks, the exit of , and from the bloc under their leadership of their respective military rulers has weakened not only ECOWAS’ reputation but also its overall strength and readiness to respond to threats. This was acknowledged by outgoing President Tinubu in one of the last speeches he held during the ECOWAS summit over the weekend in the Nigerian capital of Abuja.
Tinubu expressed his solid concern over the stalling process of rolling out ECOWAS’ expanded Standby Force, which is made up of military, civilian and police components. The concept was conceived of last year against the background of the three departures as security issues across the Sahel region continue to multiply.
“The ECOWAS Standby Force must move from concept to operational reality. I am a little bit worried about the slow pace of its activation, which is taking longer than desired,” Tinubu said, highlighting the need for a ready force to as well as other forms of organized crime in West Africa.
‘A completely fractured region’
While also having faith that Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger would eventually “return to the family,” Tinubu also highlighted the fact that he had exhausted “all diplomatic means to engage and dialogue with our brothers” during his tenure. The three nations, however, have categorically ruled out any suggestions of .
Beverly Ochieng, a senior associate at Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) in Washington, says that in the wake of multiple coups in West Africa “you now have a completely fractured region.”
“So you have three countries that have basically walked out of the bloc; you have one that’s still under suspension until it holds its elections, and that is Guinea; and broadly speaking, you have an ECOWAS that sometimes feels as if it is struggling to be able to just maintain a sense of unity in order for them to be able to face some of those challenges as a united front,” Ochieng told DW.
Opposing alliances working together
To add insult to injury, the establishment of the Alliance of Sahel States (AES) by the in 2023 openly defies the bloc’s established authority in the region for the past 50 years, and has been used as an example to underscore accusations of Tinubu showing too much resolve against the junta-led Sahel states during his ECOWAS presidency.
“The rhetoric initially in response to the may have been misplaced in the sense of ensuring open dialogue and cooperation,” says Ocheing, referring to Tinubu’s hardball approach.
Perhaps now as a gentle signal of rapprochement — or a final sign of defeat — ECOWAS also announced during its summit in Abuja last week that it had reached an agreement with the and Niger to work together in their fight against terrorism throughout the region.
According to Ochieng, however, this move is mainly based on “a realization by ECOWAS that they will ultimately have to find a way to work with the because the issues that affect the Sahel will ultimately have an impact on ECOWAS.”
The agreement further stipulates that the principle of freedom of movement of goods and persons between member states of both alliances will also be maintained.
A new chairman with a democratic vision
Under these circumstances, ECOWAS’ new chairman, President Julius Maada Bio, clearly has his work cut out for him and knows it, too, as the unity of the bloc and indeed much of the entire region is facing .
Bio himself stated in his opening remarks as ECOWAS president that “the democratic space is under strain in parts of our region. In some countries, the constitutional order has been disrupted,” referring in no uncertain terms to the military takeovers of Burkina Faso, Mali, Niger and Guinea in recent years.
DW’s Ben Shemang, who reported from the ECOWAS summit in Abuja last week, said that Bio had pledged to prioritize democracy, security cooperation, economic integration and the institutional credibility of ECOWAS during his tenure.
“Many are expecting a tenure that will not only strengthen security within the regional bloc but also to ensure unity,” Shemang explained.
Rising crime and unrest
But at the same time, there are new issues piling up on the new leader’s desk in addition to the widespread erosion of civilian rule and the proliferation of :
Organized crime is on the rise in West Africa against the backdrop of both political and economic instability, and it often straddles multiple national borders where insurgents mixing with criminals has resulted in growing unrest.
, a spike in recreational drug abuse and a rise in illegal mining practices highlight the growing despair of people throughout a region with an overall population of 425 million people. If ECOWAS was a country with all its current, as well as former member states, it would be the third most-populous state in the world after and .
“ECOWAS and some of its departments will talk about levels of crime, they’ll talk about the issues affecting criminality. But when it comes to implementing measures to be able to counter to some of those vices, it’s quite slow and bureaucratic,” says Ochieng.
The bloc’s coffers, meanwhile, just received a fresh cash injection from the last week of €110 million ($126 million) — though this is still a far cry from the estimated cost of €2.26 billion needed for the activation of ECOWAS’ Standby Force — outgoing ECOWAS President Tinubu’s pet project.
Growing discontent and threats of further fragmentation
The foundation of the Alliance of Sahel States (AES), meanwhile, has also emboldened leaders as well as opposition groups in the region and beyond to seek new directions, with many interpreting the actions of these three countries as an overdue response to the lingering effects of colonialism and attempts at neo-colonialism.
A recent survey in carried out by the independent, pan-African research network Afrobarometer found that 64% of Togolese respondents found the establishment of the AES “somewhat” or “very” justified and that that 54% of Togolese thought their country would benefit from leaving ECOWAS to join the Alliance of Sahel States.
Meanwhile, , which has also been under military rule for close to four years now but has not joined the AES, remains suspended from ECOWAS in a delicate balancing act which, if there’s further discord, could also lead to the West African nation further distancing itself from the bloc.
Uphill battles for both ECOWAS and the AES
Such trends can be interpreted as evidence of the waning influence of but also reflect the fact that bodies like ECOWAS appear to have little impact on people’s daily lives, as instability and unrest continue to affect millions.
“Understandably, there is a feeling that [ECOWAS] is not fit for purpose in terms of being able to address current political pressures, and in doing so, being able to address the issues that then lead to economic and civil unrest,” Ochieng told DW. She added that ideas like “joining the AES feel like a more reactionary solution. And even the AES itself is a very reactionary institution.”
“Perhaps the AES could be moving in a direction that people feel is admirable, that is very purposeful, that is very driven, but it’s also on a . These are military leaderships. They have widespread unrest and instability that they are facing as they are trying to establish this institution,” she added.
As growing numbers of people in the region nevertheless appear to be showing their support for strongmen tactics over democratic and consensus-led policies, Maada Bio is aware of this big task that lies ahead as he begins his tenure.
During his opening speech, the new leader of the bloc acknowledged that “ECOWAS must reform itself, and become more transparent, efficient and responsive to its people’s needs.”
Edited by: Sarah Hucal
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