Given the uncertainty about future U.S. commitment to the trans-Atlantic alliance and Russia’s military buildup along NATO’s northeastern frontier, the Nordic countries, Baltic states, and Poland are preparing for the worst: potentially having to defend against Russia without U.S. support.
Over the past three years of Russia’s full-scale war in Ukraine, these countries have not been sitting on their hands. Since the accession of Finland and Sweden to NATO, military cooperation—especially among the Nordic countries—has intensified to a level of integration rarely seen between sovereign states. At the same time, Poland has accelerated its military buildup to fend off a projected invasion, including plans to increase its forces to half a million active soldiers and reservists, bringing it close to Finland’s total reserve of 870,000.
The Nordic air forces are now operating together across the region. Estonia and Finland have intensified their naval cooperation to better respond to Russia’s intensified hybrid warfare in the Baltic Sea. While the alliance still struggles to deal with undersea cable cutting, GPS jamming, and other aggressive acts short of war, these countries are taking a more active stance, such as impounding Russian and Chinese ships suspected of sabotage.
This intensified regional cooperation comes on top of NATO efforts to set up new forward-positioned forces, such as a new Forward Land Force in northern Finland and the German armored brigade inaugurated in Lithuania last month.
At the same time, the front-line states are heavily supporting Ukraine. Four Nordic countries, the three Baltic states, and Poland comprise eight of the top nine donors of military and other aid by share of GDP. The Nordic countries are jointly procuring artillery ammunition and other equipment for Ukraine, and Copenhagen is leading the way in financing Ukraine’s domestic weapons production. Front-line countries are also surging their own ammunition production. Finland is turning into one of Europe’s largest ammunition producers securing capacity to support Ukraine into the 2030s. The Czech Republic is working on becoming the first European country to have a full artillery shell supply chain in Europe.
NATO’s most exposed members are also ahead of the rest of Europe in terms of investing in their own defense, one of the main topics at next week’s summit. Poland is on track to spend close to 5 percent of its GDP on defense this year. All three Baltic states have committed to reaching that threshold by 2026. Denmark has doubled its military budget since 2022, and Sweden has lifted its strict debt rules to generate an additional $31 billion for defense.
While the front-line states will want to avoid a decisive rift in the alliance that might invite Russian adventurism, they are making sure that they are ready—with or without the United States at their side.
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