NATO opened a high-level meeting on Tuesday against the backdrop of one war in the Middle East overshadowing another on the military alliance’s doorstep. A tentative cease-fire between Israel and Iran is expected to dominate discussions, while Russia’s invasion of Ukraine might muster merely a mention.
But NATO has other things to worry about at its annual summit of alliance leaders in The Hague, the Netherlands — namely, maintaining a unified front amid an internal spat over defense spending.
The new cease-fire, announced by President Trump late Monday, could rally NATO states toward a common goal. It also provides Mr. Trump the opportunity to take a victory lap at the brief gathering, which is designed to avoid diplomatic disruptions over his defense spending demands.
“Counter-intuitively, this could have a positive effect on the NATO summit,” said Liana Fix, a Europe expert at the Council on Foreign Relations.
At the least, Ms. Fix said, the new American role in Israel’s enduring conflict with Iran could distract from “escalation on other issues” at the NATO meeting, which wraps up Wednesday.
Yet exhaustive efforts by Mark Rutte, NATO’s affable secretary general, to keep the summit sweet as well as short are far from assured.
Defense spending debate
Mr. Trump’s demand that all NATO states raise defense spending to 5 percent of their gross domestic product — up from 2 percent — had been among the few agenda items that Mr. Rutte hoped would be unanimously approved.
NATO countries generally agree they should spend more on their militaries. At a news conference on Monday, Mr. Rutte said that the allies had agreed to increase defense investments fivefold, with more air defense systems, fighter jets, tanks, drones and troops. How to pay for it was to be settled at this week’s summit.
The spending increase “is the single most important step NATO can take to ensure it remains strong and ready for the future,” Matthew Whitaker, the current American ambassador to NATO, said on Monday.
He predicted that each of NATO’s 32 member states would agree to the 5 percent spending benchmark, calling it “a historic commitment.”
But his statement appeared to glide over continuing disagreements on spending: how much money, by when, and what it would pay for.
On Sunday, Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez of Spain said he would spend “no more, no less,” than 2.1 percent G.D.P. on defense.
The 5 percent threshold, he said, “would be incompatible with our welfare state and our worldview.”
A statement released by his office said a final agreement with Mr. Rutte maintains that “not all allies are bound to the 5 percent target.”
Mr. Rutte insisted on Monday that, “alluding to Spain, NATO has no opt-out” and said the 5 percent spending target remains. But he acknowledged that Spain has a “sovereign right” to flexibility for reaching it.
Matthew Kroenig, an expert at the Atlantic Council, said unity might be reached if allies are “fuzzy on the timeline.”
But, he noted, “if one ally gets a waiver, why won’t other countries seek similar arrangements?”
What about Ukraine?
Unlike the last three NATO leaders’ summits, all following Russia’s invasion in 2022, Ukraine will not feature prominently this time. President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine is expected to attend a high-level dinner with the other national leaders Tuesday, and foreign ministers will hold a meeting to consult about battlefield priorities.
The American-led flood of weapons pledges from NATO countries will be more limited, and earlier assurances of Ukraine’s eventual membership in the alliance will not be part of the program.
Still, allies in Europe and Canada have already provided Ukraine with $35 billion in security assistance so far this year, Mr. Rutte said — more than halfway to the $50 billion goal for 2025.
“There is not going to be much said about Ukraine by NATO,” said Kurt Volker, a former NATO ambassador during the George W. Bush administration and a special envoy to Ukraine during Mr. Trump’s first administration.
He said that is because the Trump administration and European leaders diverge on the threat Russia poses to Europe and NATO if Ukraine does not survive as a sovereign state.
Alliance unity
The quandary over Ukraine and the looming spending spat have raised concern over the extent to which the Trump administration is committed to European security and, in turn, NATO itself.
Vice President JD Vance and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth have made clear they consider Europe a drain on American security spending.
The Pentagon is reviewing its troop positions around the world, in plans that could cut thousands from NATO’s eastern flank. Mr. Whitaker would not predict Monday whether that would happen, saying that the review would be completed in coming months.
“Ask any European leader whether they believe that the United States is as committed to Article 5 today as it was a year ago, and you will hear an unequivocal no,” said Michael R. Carpenter, who oversaw Europe policy in the Biden White House.
He was referring to a core declaration in NATO’s treaty that an attack on one ally would be considered — and defended — as an attack on all.
Other allies also are questioning NATO’s current relevancy. Italy’s defense minister, Guido Crosetto, said last week that NATO needs to rethink its mission amid broader global challenges.
“NATO, like it is, doesn’t have reason to exist,” Mr. Crosetto said.
But Mr. Rutte predicted that the shared threat by Russia would bring allies together.
“Let’s not kid ourselves, the security situation has dramatically changed over the last couple of years,” he said Monday.
“When that call comes, we stand there together, united, not only in spirit, but also in practice,” Mr. Rutte said.
José Bautista contributed reporting from Madrid.
Lara Jakes, based in Rome, reports on diplomatic and military efforts by the West to support Ukraine in its war with Russia. She has been a journalist for nearly 30 years.
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