NATO opened a high-level meeting on Tuesday against the backdrop of one war in the Middle East overshadowing another on the military alliance’s doorstep. A tentative cease-fire between Israel and Iran is expected to dominate discussions, while Russia’s invasion of Ukraine might muster merely a mention.
But NATO has other things to worry about at its annual summit of alliance leaders in The Hague, the Netherlands — namely, maintaining a unified front amid an internal spat over military spending.
A new cease-fire, announced by President Trump late Monday, could rally NATO states toward a common goal. But there was uncertainty Tuesday over whether it had taken hold, with Mr. Trump suggesting that both countries had continued fighting.
“Counter-intuitively, this could have a positive effect on the NATO summit,” said Liana Fix, a Europe expert at the Council on Foreign Relations, because it could distract from “escalation on other issues.”
Mark Rutte, NATO’s affable secretary general, predicted that the question of the cease-fire would not draw attention from the summit’s main focus.
If NATO can’t “deal with the Middle East, which is very big in commanding all the headlines, and Ukraine at the same time, we should not be in the business of politics and military,” he said on Tuesday.
But his efforts to preserve a short and sweet summit, which wraps up Wednesday, are far from assured.
Defense spending debate
Mr. Trump’s demand that all NATO states raise defense spending to 5 percent of their gross domestic product — up from 2 percent — had been among the few agenda items that Mr. Rutte hoped would be unanimously approved.
NATO countries generally agree they should spend more on their militaries. At a news conference on Monday, Mr. Rutte said that the allies had agreed to increase defense investments fivefold, with more air defense systems, fighter jets, tanks, drones and troops. How to pay for it was to be settled at this week’s summit.
“We want 5 percent on defense and defense-related spending, and I think we are, at this moment, going to get all allies on board on that,” Matthew Whitaker, the current American ambassador to NATO, said on Tuesday. “It’s a historic moment — it’s probably one of the most consequential moments in this alliance’s history.”
But that appeared to glide over continuing disagreements on spending: how much money, by when, and what it would pay for.
On Sunday, Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez of Spain said he would spend “no more, no less,” than 2.1 percent G.D.P. on defense.
The 5 percent threshold, he said, “would be incompatible with our welfare state and our worldview.”
A statement released by his office said a final agreement with Mr. Rutte maintains that “not all allies are bound to the 5 percent target.”
Mr. Rutte insisted on Monday that, “alluding to Spain, NATO has no opt-out” and said the 5 percent spending target remains. But he acknowledged that Spain has a “sovereign right” to flexibility for reaching it.
Matthew Kroenig, an expert at the Atlantic Council, said unity might be reached if allies are “fuzzy on the timeline.”
But, he noted, “if one ally gets a waiver, why won’t other countries seek similar arrangements?”
What about Ukraine?
Unlike the last three NATO leaders’ summits, all following Russia’s invasion in 2022, Ukraine will not feature prominently this time. President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine is expected to attend a high-level dinner with the other national leaders Tuesday, and foreign ministers will hold a meeting to consult about battlefield priorities.
The American-led flood of weapons pledges from NATO countries will be more limited, and earlier assurances of Ukraine’s eventual membership in the alliance will not be part of the program.
Still, allies in Europe and Canada have already provided Ukraine with $35 billion in security assistance so far this year, Mr. Rutte said — more than halfway to the $50 billion goal for 2025.
“There is not going to be much said about Ukraine by NATO,” said Kurt Volker, a former NATO ambassador during the George W. Bush administration and a special envoy to Ukraine during Mr. Trump’s first administration.
He said that is because the Trump administration and European leaders diverge on the threat Russia poses to Europe and NATO if Ukraine does not survive as a sovereign state.
Alliance unity
The quandary over Ukraine and the looming spending spat have raised concern over the extent to which the Trump administration is committed to European security and, in turn, NATO itself.
Vice President JD Vance and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth have made clear they consider Europe a drain on American security spending.
The Pentagon is reviewing its troop positions around the world, in plans that could cut thousands from NATO’s eastern flank. Mr. Whitaker would not predict on Monday whether that would happen, saying that the review would be completed in coming months.
“Ask any European leader whether they believe that the United States is as committed to Article 5 today as it was a year ago, and you will hear an unequivocal no,” said Michael R. Carpenter, who oversaw Europe policy in the Biden White House.
He was referring to a core declaration in NATO’s treaty that an attack on one ally would be considered — and defended — as an attack on all.
Other allies also are questioning NATO’s current relevancy. Italy’s defense minister, Guido Crosetto, said last week that NATO needs to rethink its mission amid broader global challenges.
“NATO, like it is, doesn’t have reason to exist,” Mr. Crosetto said.
But Mr. Rutte predicted that the shared threat by Russia would bring allies together.
Regarding American commitment to NATO, “My message to my European colleagues is, stop worrying so much,” he said on Tuesday. “They are there. They are with us.”
José Bautista contributed reporting from Madrid.
Lara Jakes, based in Rome, reports on diplomatic and military efforts by the West to support Ukraine in its war with Russia. She has been a journalist for nearly 30 years.
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