Zohran Mamdani’s chances of beating former Governor Andrew Cuomo in the New York City Democratic mayoral primary surged on Monday, just one day before primary day and after many New Yorkers voted early.
Why It Matters
Mamdani, a state Assembly member, and Cuomo are viewed as the front-runners heading into Tuesday’s primary to lead the country’s largest city. Whoever wins the primary will be favored to win the general election in November, as New York remains a Democratic stronghold. Cuomo has led most polls in the race, but Mamdani, a favorite among progressive voters, has gained traction in recent weeks.
What To Know
Two betting markets—Polymarket and Kalshi—had Mamdani’s chances of winning jump on Monday after Emerson College released a poll showing the progressive lawmaker with a slight lead. But the betting markets still gave the two leading candidates roughly an even shot at victory on Tuesday.
Mamdani briefly overtook Cuomo as the favorite in both markets at about 10 a.m. ET on Monday, but later in the morning, Cuomo regained a slight advantage. Traders were split on who they view as the candidate most likely to prevail on Tuesday.
As of noon ET, Polymarket favored Cuomo 53 percent to 47 percent compared to 76 percent to 23 percent on Sunday.
Kalshi favored Cuomo 52-46 compared to 77-24 on Sunday. The percentages are based on individual markets per candidate, so they may not equate to 100 percent.
Rich Azzopardi, a spokesperson for Cuomo, told Newsweek that the jump was driven by the Emerson poll, which he said was an “outlier.”
“Every other credible poll in this election, including two released last week, has shown Governor Cuomo with a double-digit lead, which is exactly where this election will end tomorrow. Between now and then, we will continue to fight for every vote like he will fight for every New Yorker as mayor,” Azzopardi said.
Newsweek reached out to the Mamdani campaign for comment via email.
The Emerson poll showed Cuomo with a slight lead on the first round of voting—36.4 percent to Mamdani’s 33.7 percent. But after eight rounds of ranked choice, Mamdani consolidated support from other candidates to have a slight lead, 51.8 percent to Cuomo’s 48.2 percent.
The poll surveyed 833 Democratic primary voters from June 18-20 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.3 percentage points.
Mitchell Moss, Henry Hart Rice Professor of Urban Policy and Planning at New York University, told Newsweek on Monday he believes the election is “too complicated for betting odds to predict,” as there are “too many unknowns.”
What People Are Saying
Political commentator Chuck Todd, on X, formerly Twitter: “I’m not a big believer in trying to predict news events/elections via these betting markets as they feel like nothing more than folks taking one new piece of info and over-betting its meaning. If I thought there was good public polling, I might think differently, but the biggest concern I have in these news betting markets is the flawed public data that influences them. Doesn’t mean this doesn’t turn out right, but it’s simply more wishing or guessing or gambling than actual insight imo.”
Lakshya Jain of Split Ticket, about the Emerson poll on X: “On balance, with no other evidence, that’s enough new data to say the NYC Dem mayoral nomination is a pure tossup. Wow.”
Senator Bernie Sanders, a Vermont independent, endorsed Mamdani last week: “At this dangerous moment in history, status quo politics isn’t good enough. We need new leadership that is prepared to stand up to powerful corporate interests & fight for the working class. @ZohranKMamdani is providing that vision. He is the best choice for NYC mayor.”
Former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg, who endorsed Cuomo on X this month: “I care deeply about the future of our city, and since leaving office, it has been difficult to watch its struggles, especially since the pandemic. In sizing up the field in the race for mayor, there is one candidate whose management experience and government know-how stand above the others: @andrewcuomo.”
What Happens Next
While many New Yorkers voted early, others will head to the polls on Tuesday. Whichever candidate prevails will face off against a Republican and independent Mayor Eric Adams in November.
The post Zohran Mamdani’s Chances of Beating Andrew Cuomo Surge Day Before Primary appeared first on Newsweek.
