U.S. benchmark oil prices were only marginally higher Monday morning, an outcome that reflects investors shifting into wait-and-see mode as they take stock of Iran’s response to U.S. strikes on its nuclear facilities.
The 0.2% gain in West Texas Intermediate crude futures, to less than $74 a barrel, reflected a significant overnight pullback from the nearly 4% spike seen Sunday evening when trading of commodities futures opened.
Stocks opened flat.
The current oil price is still the highest since late January — but is only slightly below the overall average seen since 2023. It would equate to gasoline prices of about $3.30 a gallon, assuming oil prices stay at these levels.
That would be a big assumption.
Wall Street analysts say that by ordering the strikes, President Donald Trump has once again injected massive uncertainty into markets after having already done so with his on-again, off-again tariff announcements.
“There is in our view a wide range of outcomes for oil prices in the next few weeks,” analysts with UBS financial group wrote in a note to clients. “The nature and extent of Iranian retaliation remains the key parameter.”
If the Iranian response somehow stays muted, oil prices could actually fall back down, the analysts said.
But the U.S. strikes have likely increased the risk to disruptions of energy infrastructure in the Middle East, they wrote. If any such disruption were to occur, oil prices would surge in the short term.
“EVERYONE, KEEP OIL PRICES DOWN. I’M WATCHING! YOU’RE PLAYING RIGHT INTO THE HANDS OF THE ENEMY. DON’T DO IT!” Trump posted to social media Monday morning.
The biggest focus remains on whether Iran will limit or cut-off access to the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint in the Persian Gulf through which about one-fifth of the world’s oil supply travels. Iran’s state-owned media reported that Iran’s parliament backed closing the strait — but that the final decision lies with Iran’s national security council, according to the report. There was no word yet that such an order had been given.
UBS said it sees a disruption of the strait as “low probability” at this point. An early-morning report that six tankers had begun moving away from the strait was updated just before 9 a.m. to show that three of the vessels had reversed course and were heading back to the strait.
“The strait is critical for Iran’s own exports as its terminal outside of the Strait only has limited capacity,” the analysts said. “A closure would also have a material negative impact for several other countries such as Qatar and China and would likely present a challenge for Iran.”
Analysts with ING financial group outlined four possible avenues for Iran: full escalation that also draws in other nations such as China or Russia; disruption of the Strait of Hormuz; active or passive support for terrorist attacks in the U.S. and Europe; or taking no action at all.
“We will abstain from speculating about the next steps and instead conclude that the most likely economic consequences from the US strikes will be on general uncertainty and on the price of oil,” the ING analysts wrote.
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