How to navigate Denmark’s EU presidency policy agenda like a pro
Denmark picks up the Council leadership baton at a moment of geopolitical volatility.
Mads Claus Rasmussen/Ritzau Scanpix/AFP via Getty Images
While there may never be an easy time to take charge of the EU’s policy agenda, Denmark certainly steps into a challenging arena. The Nordic nation takes over the rotating presidency of the Council of the European Union from Poland as conflicts flare up around the world, budget discussions loom and trade tensions simmer, all while the EU shifts its focus to competitiveness.
Defense and security will be top of mind as the EU continues to navigate choppy geopolitical waters. The bloc’s next seven-year cash pot will be presented in July, kicking off years of likely fraught negotiations. And the EU-U.S. trade relationship remains unpredictable.
Denmark will also be under pressure to finalize a deal on climate targets and steer talks on a revamp of the EU’s pharmaceutical rules, while maintaining its role as an honest broker and withstanding lobbying from its own pharmaceutical industry.
Here’s a rundown of some of the files the Danes will be dealing with.
The EU’s long-term budget
Why it matters: The European Commission’s next seven-year money pot, known as the multiannual financial framework, is among the most politically sensitive files in the EU’s corridors of power. The €1.2 trillion budget governs everything from farmers’ payments to foreign aid — and is usually the subject of fraught negotiations among Commission departments, EU capitals and the European Parliament. But it’s not only about the money — influencing the makeup of the budget is seen as a currency of power in Brussels.
EU fault lines: As in previous negotiations, hawkish Northern European countries such as Sweden and Netherlands want a smaller budget, whereas their southern counterparts want a bigger one. Baltic countries support more defense spending, the French are keen on agricultural subsidies and the Poles are big on regional payments … You get the gist: Each country has its own specific priorities.
State of play: The Commission’s proposal will land July 16, and governments will give their initial responses before the summer hiatus. This will pave the way for years of fraught negotiations between capitals.
Likely progress:
Don’t expect an agreement on this file before 2027. The Danish presidency will preside over the start of the negotiations, set up a plethora of different bodies and committees to bring forward the process, and coordinate the Council of the EU’s position. But there won’t be a breakthrough in the coming six months.
Author: Gregorio Sorgi
Funding European defense
Why it matters: As relations with the U.S deteriorate and Russia and China become more of a threat, the EU wants to be a military player and boost its defense industry. If NATO allies agree to increase defense spending to 5 percent of their gross domestic product, the pressure on the EU and on the Danish presidency to come up with ways to fund these efforts will only grow. For now, the main dossier is the European Defence Industry Programme, which on paper is only €1.5 billion but in practice is seen as a framework for discussions on the EU’s next multiannual budget. The key issue — as with the recently adopted €150 billion Security Action for Europe regulation — is eligibility, or the degree of access that third countries like the U.S or the U.K could have to these funds. But there’s a difference: EDIP money comes from the EU budget, while SAFE is basically national debt backed by the European Commission.
State of play: Another difference between EDIP and SAFE is that the European Parliament had a say on the former, but not on the latter. The Parliament reached a deal on EDIP and is now waiting for the Council of the EU to do the same. Once the Council agrees, three-way discussions between the institutions will kick off. The Danish presidency is expected to wrap up the file before December.
With SAFE, the situation is more fraught. The Commission’s argument when it tabled the proposal in March was that it had to be implemented quickly. While SAFE has already been agreed upon, the Parliament threatened to take the Commission to court over its decision to cut it off from the discussions on the file — an issue the Danes might have to deal with during their presidency.
EU fault lines: As a result of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Denmark is now a full participant in the EU’s defense efforts. In June 2022, it voted in a referendum to take part in EU security policy, scrapping its 30-year opt-out. Copenhagen is also a strong supporter of Ukraine in military and financial terms.
Likely progress:
The degree of predictability in defense is limited, as there can be unforeseeable developments on the field in Ukraine and in relations with the U.S., and the amount of money compared to the challenges remains very limited.
Author: Jacopo Barigazzi
Reforming pharma rules
Why it matters: The EU’s revamp of its two-decades-old pharmaceutical rules has just entered its final legislative stage — interinstitutional negotiations. The European Commission’s proposed 700-plus-page revision aims to make the EU’s pharmaceutical sector more competitive while ensuring better access to new medicines. The revamp targets monopoly rights enjoyed by new medicines and incentivizes industry to meet unmet medical needs. It aims to fix the broken antimicrobials market, promote cleaner production and speed up regulatory decisions.
State of play: Poland managed to secure a Council of the EU agreement on the negotiating mandate just before handing over the presidency. Now Denmark takes the helm, tasked with steering talks with the European Parliament and Commission, which have only just begun.
EU fault lines: The Danish presidency walks a tightrope between maintaining its role as an honest broker and withstanding heavy lobbying from its pharmaceutical industry — a major economic player at home. But with Brussels focused on boosting competitiveness amid shifting geopolitical winds, the final deal could tilt toward industry-friendly provisions.
Likely progress:
The Council’s position isn’t far from that of the Parliament on key issues. With geopolitical tensions high and competitiveness top of mind, negotiators could find common ground. Still, the file’s sheer size and its technical complexity may drag talks beyond Denmark’s six-month presidency.
Author: Giedrė Peseckytė
The EU’s 2040 and 2035 climate targets
Why it matters: Two days into the Danish presidency, the European Commission will propose a contentious target to reduce the EU’s emissions by 90 percent by 2040, albeit with an array of loopholes. This milestone will steer the bloc’s ecological and economic path forward, guiding investment decisions for industrial giants and cleantech startups alike. From the 2040 target, the EU will derive its 2035 goal required by the United Nations — which will signal to the world whether the bloc can maintain its global green leadership role even as its climate ambitions come under pressure at home.
State of play: The 2040 proposal is coming on July 2, but the Commission is busy holding talks with governments and members of the European Parliament to forge a consensus ahead of time. That’s because the 2035 goal is long overdue — the deadline was February — and if the EU wants its ambitions to influence those of other countries (say, China), it really needs to agree the U.N. target in September. That doesn’t leave much time for the Danes to hammer out a deal.
EU fault lines: Plenty. POLITICO ran a survey of all 27 governments in May and found that only a fifth of countries support a hard target of 90 percent. Many countries want concessions from the Commission to support the EU executive’s preferred figure. That includes being allowed to outsource some climate efforts to poorer countries with so-called carbon credits, a radical departure from the EU’s current principles — which scientists have warned against. Expect fierce debate about these credits.
Likely progress:
The September deadline should focus minds in the Council of the EU and the Parliament alike, but the credits issue could prove controversial enough to risk delays.
Author: Zia Weise
Simplifying green rules
Why it matters: The Danish presidency begins just as the EU attempts a dramatic U-turn on its own green regulation. The European Commission’s first omnibus bill — which proposes slashing green reporting rules for companies — is still being negotiated in the Council of the EU. More simplification proposals will land during the Danish presidency, including on chemicals, agriculture and sustainable finance. At stake is the EU’s status as a world leader on environmental regulation.
State of play: During Poland’s presidency, the Council has been broadly unified on the idea that simplification is a good thing. However the devil is in the detail. Germany and France are piling on pressure to go further with cuts to green rules, while Spain has been a moderating force. Most of the serious opposition, though, has come from outside the Council — from the European Parliament, agencies and even the European Central Bank.
EU fault lines: Denmark has generally been enthusiastic about simplification, so don’t anticipate a radical departure from the Polish presidency. And as with Poland, expect defense and competitiveness, rather than green issues, to be the top priorities. However, Denmark has been clear it is committed to the goals of the Green Deal, and insists that sustainability and competitiveness can and must go together. It has been unusually successful at bringing its farmers along for the green ride, setting the EU’s first agriculture carbon tax — a fact that may influence negotiations on simplification of EU agriculture funding rules.
Likely progress:
Whatever happens, it’s safe to assume the green simplification drive will continue under the Danish presidency. Member countries are sold on the idea, and opponents in Parliament no longer have the numbers to stop the deregulatory juggernaut.
Author: James Fernyhough
Reviewing the 2035 ICE ban
Why it matters: Since its passage in 2023, automakers have fought tooth and nail to repeal, or at least heavily weaken, the legislation mandating 100 percent zero-emission vehicle sales starting in 2035. The regulation includes intermittent emission reductions to keep carmakers on track for the de facto combustion engine (ICE) ban, including one that went into effect this year. But the European Commission caved to pleas for leniency on this year’s targets, agreeing to average them over three years and move forward the review of the 2035 legislation from 2026 to later this year. The change gives automakers a massive political victory and another opportunity to weaken the ICE ban.
State of play: The European Parliament and the Council of the EU signed on to the Commission’s proposal to average the 2025 emissions and to move up the review, but no date has been set or communication on what data will be included. Part of the strategy behind moving forward the review was to base it on 2024’s car sales, which critics say were always going to be lower because brands were launching new electric vehicles in 2025 to coincide with the emission targets.
EU fault lines: Germany has been against the 2035 ICE ban from the start, reluctantly signing on after getting an exception for e-fuels. The European People’s Party campaigned on reversing the ban, and Italy too wants to see the legislation scrapped. France wants the legislation to remain in place but was in favor of averaging the emissions. The legislation’s fate is a litmus test on whether the Commission’s competition mantra will fully supersede its previous climate wins.
Likely progress:
Sensing weakness and riding the high of a political victory, the automotive sector isn’t going to let up the pressure.
Author: Jordyn Dahl
Restructuring the Common Agricultural Policy
Why it matters: With a price tag of €386 billion, the Common Agricultural Policy remains one of the EU’s most expensive and politically sensitive programs — a lifeline for many farmers and a lightning rod for just as many critics. As the EU prepares to redraw its long-term spending priorities from 2028 onward, the next CAP will be central to debates over food production, climate goals and rural livelihoods. How — and how much — farmers get paid will be up for discussion.
State of play: The European Commission is expected to present its post-2027 CAP proposal in July, alongside the next long-term budget. Denmark will steer early reactions — and look to position itself as a pragmatic green broker. At home, the Danes have already launched the EU’s first farm-level carbon tax and a national plant-based food strategy. Now they’ll try to nudge the Council toward similar thinking.
EU fault lines: Denmark remains a rare voice pushing for stronger environmental conditions on farm spending, even as it aligns with the majority intent on keeping the money flowing with as little red tape as possible. At the same time, pressure is mounting to show that CAP money is being spent more efficiently and in line with the EU’s evolving priorities — from climate and competitiveness to defense and food security. Farmers, meanwhile, are watching closely, ready to return to the streets if the next reform doesn’t go their way.
Likely progress:
The Danish presidency will open the floor and lay technical groundwork. But the real horse-trading won’t start until 2026.
Author: Bartosz Brzeziński
Fighting online child sexual abuse material
Why it matters: Cracking down on child sexual abuse hardly needs justification, but the situation appears to be particularly serious in Europe. According to Council of Europe research, one in five children in Europe is a victim of some form of sexual violence online or in real life, compared with one in eight globally.
State of play: The European Commission proposed legislation to combat child sexual abuse material online in 2022, then the European Parliament passed its own version of the bill in 2023, but national governments are stuck in a deadlock. Multiple presidencies of the Council of the EU, including Poland most recently — which proposed a more privacy-friendly version — have tried and failed to reach agreement.
EU fault lines: There is a big and emotive fight at the heart of the law about the balance between resisting police surveillance and protecting children. The original Commission proposal would have allowed law enforcement to force messaging services like WhatsApp and Signal to scan for CSAM, but for some EU countries, including heavyweights Germany, the Netherlands and Poland, this would amount to mass surveillance. There are broadly two camps: Privacy on one side, and police powers on the other. Denmark is in the latter.
Likely progress:
The disagreements appear to be basically intractable, but there’s also a politically tricky legal deadline coming up in April 2026. Until that date, companies are allowed to voluntarily scan for CSAM — an action that would otherwise be illegal — so Denmark may have to go with a compromise just to get something passed. One possible wild card: Germany, a longtime privacy absolutist, has a new government and is still working out its position. If that changes, the deadlock could break.
Author: Sam Clark
Finding agreement on migration
Why it matters: Denmark’s hard-line stance on migration will be put to the test as it takes over the Council of the EU’s rotating presidency in July. Earlier this year, the European Commission unveiled its Common European System for Returns, which aims to streamline deportations, toughen enforcement against irregular migrants, and boost cooperation among member countries — offering Denmark a prime opportunity to push its migration agenda at the EU level. At home, though, the governing Social Democrats are drawing criticism from the left for embracing policies typically associated with the far right. What’s more, Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen told POLITICO in March that she considers mass migration “a threat to the daily life in Europe.”
EU fault lines: In 2024, just days after Brussels finalized its Pact on Migration and Asylum, Denmark rallied 14 other member countries in a joint call to push for an even greater outsourcing of migration policy, as the pact only dealt with matters internally. What’s more, the EU’s landmark pact won’t be in force until next year, but worries have already surfaced over its lack of implementation. Denmark also wants to keep pushing for return hubs, and already has a €200 million deal to send 300 foreign convicts to serve their sentences in a Kosovo prison before deportation.
State of play: The Commission’s returns proposal is unlikely to be finalized by the end of the year, when the Danes hand over the presidency to Cyprus. Meanwhile, they will be looking for other ways to curb illegal migration into the bloc by pressing the Commission to revisit its interpretation of human rights rules to ease deportations and striking deals similar to the one with Kosovo.
Likely progress:
The EU’s migration policy has been up for debate for over a decade, and a six-month stint at the Council’s helm won’t be a silver bullet. But by building on political momentum, Denmark has an opening to team up with like-minded member countries to focus attention on its stance at the EU level.
Author: Jakob Weizman
Screening foreign direct investment
Why it matters: The FDI screening review — the first major element of European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen’s economic security strategy — comes as part of a broader EU-wide effort to rein in foreign investors from taking control of European companies in strategic or sensitive sectors. While the rules were drafted amid fears of Chinese takeovers, the EU is currently more worried about acquisitions by U.S. companies, and those fears are coming into even sharper focus now that Donald Trump is in power. The review aims to make it mandatory for all EU countries to have a system in place that monitors investments and further harmonize the way those are screened within the bloc.
State of play: After slow progress over the last six months, the Polish presidency of the Council of the EU did manage to hold two rounds of interinstitutional talks in June, but the crux of the work will land on the Danes.
EU fault lines: The European Parliament and the Council are expected to clash on the scope of the rules, as well as the role of the Commission in adjudicating over contentious investments. Capitals are pushing to narrow the list of sensitive technologies for which screening would be mandatory, such as semiconductors or artificial intelligence. The Parliament, on the contrary, has added more sectors such as aerospace, rail transport or the automotive industry.
Likely progress:
Negotiations are expected to be difficult, but there’s a broad political push across institutions to wrap up by the end of 2025.
Author: Camille Gijs
Sealing a trade deal with Donald Trump
Why it matters: Since taking office on Jan. 20 for the second time, Donald Trump has antagonized the EU more than ever — slamming the bloc as “nastier” than China. And as of July 9 — less than 10 days into Denmark’s stint at the helm of the Council of the EU — European goods going to the United States could face a 50 percent duty if Trump’s “reciprocal” tariffs kick back in, as threatened. This would come on top of existing tariffs on cars and metals. Trump’s pressure is forcing the European Union to make difficult choices: to fold, hold the line or even escalate the transatlantic trade dispute.
State of play: Since Trump held a call in late May with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, the two sides agreed to speed up their negotiations, in a relative easing of tensions. Brussels has put forward offers on industrial tariffs or jointly tackling challenges stemming from China’s export-driven economy, but there’s no sign that the White House wants to return any favors. So instead of banking on a far-reaching agreement, the bloc is expecting modest, sectoral deals to salvage the €1.6 trillion transatlantic trade relationship.
EU fault lines: Although the Danish presidency won’t be in the driving seat to negotiate with the White House (the Commission calls the shots on that), it’s up to them to make sure there is enough political buy-in to proposals from the Commission. They’ll have to seek consensus and build alliances to make sure each capital doesn’t go its own way with Trump, threatening the bloc’s unity.
Likely progress: Hardly predictable, given Trump is Trump.
Author: Camille Gijs
Getting other free-trade deals done
Why it matters: With Donald Trump’s tariff antics putting the €1.6 trillion transatlantic trade relationship in jeopardy, the European Commission is stepping up its quest to do deals with more like-minded partners — such as South America, India or Australia — and that couldn’t please free trader Denmark more.
State of play: Commission President Ursula von der Leyen shook hands last December on a long-awaited trade deal with the Mercosur bloc — and the final text is expected to be put to EU member countries soon. Another free-trade agreement that could come together during the Danish presidency of the Council of the EU is with India, after von der Leyen and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi pledged to do a deal this year. The two sides have stepped up their negotiations but, given the scale of the task, it’s possible that they may aim to do a stripped-down deal. The EU’s carbon border tax is a big stumbling block. There are also deals within reach with Australia and a handful of Asia-Pacific nations, and a push is on to do one with the United Arab Emirates within the next few months.
EU fault lines: France is holding out on the Mercosur deal, worried that its farmers may be exposed to unbeatable competition from South American meat. It will fall to the Danes to hold together a pro-deal majority — or risk another years-long delay to a deal that has been over a quarter century in the making.
Likely progress:
Author: Douglas Busvine
The post How to navigate Denmark’s EU presidency policy agenda like a pro appeared first on Politico.
