Now for the caveats.
It’s still early in the legislative process, and as noted the actual details are being worked out. An amended Senate version, for example, would have to be sent back to the House before it gets anywhere near the president’s desk. The polls suggest Americans don’t know a ton about the legislation at this point, and their views could change.
But the Post/Ipsos poll also shows the people who say they know more about it tend to be more opposed. Those who had heard only “a little” or “nothing at all” opposed it 31-19%, but those who had heard “a great deal” or “a good amount” opposed it 64-33%.
There’s also an argument to be made that the legislation could get more popular after Republicans sell it and pass it. Maybe people are just resistant to change.
Gallup polling showed Trump’s tax cuts, for instance, going from 27 points underwater in December 2017 to just seven points underwater (46% opposed, 39% supported) in September 2018. It was still unpopular, but not historically so.
But crucially, that bill didn’t involve a huge health care overhaul that could kick millions off their insurance, which is clearly the GOP’s biggest political problem right now.
They need something to offset the huge cost of extending the tax cuts, and that means going into entitlements. They’ve argued that the Medicaid cuts would be focused on undocumented people and those who refuse to work, but those claims don’t really hold water.
It’s probably no coincidence that the only major proposal in recent decades that competes with this one is another health care overhaul. The question now for Republicans is whether they want to take a major political risk in actually passing this one.
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