Iran vowed to retaliate against American bases in the region even before the United States attacked its nuclear sites on Saturday, and U.S. intelligence agencies have long warned that the military should prepare for such a response.
While Iran will likely attempt a fierce barrage, U.S. and Israeli officials said before the attacks on Saturday that Israel’s strikes in recent days had severely damaged Iran’s ability to mount attacks, wiping out launchers and damaging military bases.
In more than a week of fighting before the U.S. attacks, the Israeli Air Force struck Iranian missile launchers and launch teams, and Iran depleted its stockpile of medium-range missiles, according to U.S. and Israeli officials.
In an address from the White House on Saturday, President Trump warned Iran against further actions, and demanded that Tehran “make peace.”
“There will be either peace or there will be tragedy for Iran far greater than we have witnessed over the last eight days,” Mr. Trump said. “But if peace does not come quickly, we will go after those other targets with precision, speed and skill.”
Iran could ignore Mr. Trump’s comments and deploy its remaining medium-range missiles, or its short-range weapons and cruise missiles, which could be used to threaten U.S. bases in the Middle East, according to experts.
Nicholas Carl, who studies Iran for the American Enterprise Institute’s Critical Threats Project, said those weapons have too short a range to be directly fired against Israel. But a number of American bases are within range.
In addition to cruise missiles and rockets, Iran also has an ample supply of attack drones, which could be particularly effective if they are smuggled to Shiite militias in Iraq and fired at American bases there, U.S. officials said. And the Iran-backed Houthi militia in Yemen, which reached a cease-fire agreement with the United States last month, could resume its attacks on shipping in the Red Sea.
“Iran has many ways of imposing pressure on the West and the international community writ large,” Mr. Carl said in an interview before the strike on the three nuclear sites.
American officials said Iran would probably use its bases in the southern part of the country to launch missile attacks on U.S. bases in the Persian Gulf.
The fighting has strained Israel’s supply of missile interceptors and Iran’s capacity to attack.
When the war began, Iran had some 2,000 long and midrange weapons, one of the largest collections in the region, according to Israeli officials. U.S. officials have generally accepted that estimate. It is not clear how much of Iran’s arsenal remains. The country has fired off hundreds of missiles, and Israel has damaged sites where they are stored.
Israel’s strikes on missile launchers have been even more significant, limiting Iran’s ability to fire missiles and large-scale barrages, American officials and outside experts said. Israel’s campaign has also hurt Iran’s ability to coordinate attacks, according to experts and Israeli officials.
American bases in the Middle East are protected by missile defenses, and Iran would likely have to fire a large coordinated barrage of missiles to penetrate them.
Mr. Carl said Iran’s capacity to fire large numbers of missiles in increasingly limited. At least half of Iran’s launchers have been destroyed.
“As you begin to whittle away at the launchers, the Iranian ability to summon these large volumes of missile fire is diminished,” Mr. Carl said. “And that is a huge problem for Iran.”
The Israeli attacks have forced Tehran to change its tactics and operations. Mr. Carl said that in response to Israel’s strikes on missile crews preparing to launch weapons, Iran appeared to be trying to launch missiles more quickly.
“The Iranians appear to be accelerating their launch timeline,” Mr. Carl said. “That means it is harder to coordinate large-scale attacks across the country.”
Key weaknesses in Iran’s arsenal were revealed in attacks on Israel last year. Israeli and American air defense proved adept at intercepting missiles. Iranian targeting is imperfect, and many missiles miss their targets. Quality control problems have led to significant numbers of malfunctions.
To overcome those problems, Iran needs to be able to fire large numbers of missiles simultaneously. But as long as Israeli pressure on launch sites continues, experts say, Tehran will struggle to fire large barrages, which could limit its ability to retaliate against U.S. bases.
American missile defenses — ranging from Patriot batteries to Aegis destroyers — have the capacity to defend military bases in the region. Those defenses will be more effective against small barrages of weapons.
Iranian officials have said that American bases in Iraq would probably be their first targets, either with a direct missile strike or by rockets or drones fired by pro-Iran militias. Iran may not want to strike U.S. bases in Arab countries, but that calculation would probably change after the U.S. attacks on Iran’s underground Fordo nuclear site, and other sites in Natanz and Isfahan, American officials said.
Julian E. Barnes covers the U.S. intelligence agencies and international security matters for The Times. He has written about security issues for more than two decades.
Natan Odenheimer is a Times reporter in Jerusalem, covering Israeli and Palestinian affairs.
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