After overnight strikes on Iran, President Trump on Sunday declared the operation a “success,” and said that Iran’s nuclear enrichment facilities were “completely and totally obliterated.” But his early public pronouncements contrast with more cautious assessments by the U.S. and Israeli militaries.
The Israeli military, in an initial analysis, believes the heavily fortified nuclear site at Fordo has sustained serious damage from the American strike on Sunday, but has not been completely destroyed, according to two Israeli officials with knowledge of the matter. The officials also said it appeared Iran had moved equipment, including uranium, from the site.
A senior U.S. official similarly acknowledged that the American strike on the Fordo site did not destroy the heavily fortified facility but said the strike had severely damaged it, taking it “off the table.” The person noted that even 12 bunker-busting bombs could not destroy the site.
The damage assessments by Israel and the United States are ongoing, and they have not made any final conclusions. The officials spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss intelligence matters.
In its overnight strikes, the United States took aim at three nuclear site, including dropping 30,000 pound, bunker-busting bombs on Fordo, Iran’s most critical site.
In a briefing Sunday morning, top Pentagon officials echoed President Trump’s claims of success, while also saying the final assessment would take time. Gen. Dan Caine, the new chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said that the initial assessment indicated that all three sites sustained “severe damage and destruction,” but added that it was too soon to say whether Iran retained some nuclear capability.
The Iranian foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, said at a news conference that the country was “calculating the damages” from the strike.
The initial assessment by the Israelis was based on Israeli satellite imagery and additional aerial photography conducted over the site, as well as Israeli intelligence monitoring of Fordo, according to the Israeli officials.
New satellite imagery taken shortly after the U.S. strikes on the Fordo nuclear site indicated damage and likely entry holes from the American bombs. The imagery, captured by Planet Labs, shows changes in the ground’s appearance and dust near the likely strike locations.
The Israelis, in their assessment, are also looking satellite imagery from a few days before the U.S. strikes. They believe the images show the Iranians moving uranium and equipment from the Fordo facility.
Satellite images released by Maxar Technologies from around the time show 16 cargo trucks positioned near an entrance. An analysis by the Open Source Centre in London suggested that Iran may have been preparing the site for a strike. It is unclear exactly what, if anything, was removed from the facility.
Mick Mulroy, a former Pentagon official in the first Trump administration and a former C.I.A. officer, said of the strike: “With the type and amount of munitions used, it will likely set back the Iranian nuclear weapon program two to five years.”
“A full battle damage assessment will be conducted in the coming days to determine that more accurately,” he added.
Josh Holder and Julian Barnes contributed reporting.
Eric Schmitt is a national security correspondent for The Times. He has reported on U.S. military affairs and counterterrorism for more than three decades.
Ronen Bergman is a staff writer for The New York Times Magazine, based in Tel Aviv.
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