Based on how this series has played out so far, there are no sure things when it comes to any aspect of Sunday’s must-see NBA Finals Game 7 matchup between the Pacers and Thunder.
That includes the player props markets after a Game 6 in which a bench player, Obi Toppin, led the Pacers in scoring, while regular season MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander was held to 21 points and 2 assists, with a playoff-high 8 turnovers.
Based on his recent play in this series, though, we feel good about once again backing Pascal Siakam’s rebounds + assists. And this also looks like a good spot for OKC 3-and-D specialist Lu Dort, who is shooting 39 percent from outside on 7 3-point attempts per game at home in the playoffs.
Note: The prices below are available as of early Saturday afternoon.
If you find these plays as tempting as we do, take advantage of them now, as they might not be available at these prices as we get closer to tipoff tomorrow night.
Pascal Siakam Over 11.5 Rebs + Asts (+120 at FanDuel) — 1 unit
With 13 rebounds and 3 assists in Game 6, Siakam (who is averaging 8.3 rebounds and 4 assists per game in the Finals) easily went over 11.5 R+A for the third time this series.
And it’s Siakam’s floor as a rebounder and passer in this series — he’s had at least 11 R+A in 5/6 Finals games, and he had 10 R+A in the one game where he finished with less than 11 — that makes this as safe a player prop bet as any in Game 7.
Siakam has been the ultimate Swiss Army Knife for Indiana throughout the playoffs. He’s had his best series of the playoffs as both a rebounder and a passer in the Finals, while also scoring at least 15 points in each of the first six games of this series.
Against the Thunder, Siakam has provided much more as a passer than he usually does for the Pacers, and I see no reason why he can’t once again post a handful of assists in Game 7 after recording 3 in Game 1, 4 apiece in Games 2 and 3, 5 apiece in Games 4 and 5 and 3 more in Game 6.
This is a bit of a risk given that Siakam is averaging just 6.5 rebounds and 3.5 assists per game across 22 playoff games, but his consistently solid rebounds and assists numbers in this particular matchup are impossible to ignore.
Lu Dort 3+ Made Threes (+210 at bet365) — 0.75 units
First of all, this price on Dort making at least three 3-pointers is hard to resist, and +210 is a bargain given that Dort 3+ made threes is priced at +145 at DraftKings.
Dort has only knocked down three 3-pointers 7 times in 22 playoff games, but at home at Paycom Center, he’s cashed this prop in six of 12 games.
Overall this postseason, Dort has hit 39 percent of his 3-point attempts at home while averaging a healthy 7 3PA per game.
In the Finals vs. Indiana, he’s been solid in all but Game 6, when he went just 1-for-5 on a horrific offensive night for the team as a whole.
Dort started this series hot by knocking down 5-of-9 3-pointers in Game 1, and he’s continued to make Indiana pay for leaving him open. Despite his rough night in Game 6, Dort has still hit 15-of-29 3-point attempts (51.7 percent) in this series — 9-for-18 at home and 6-for-11 on the road.
We’re looking at just a three-game sample size, but Dort making 50 percent of his 6 3PA per game in three home games vs the Pacers is more than enough for us to back him to make three 3-pointers in Game 7, especially at longer than +200 odds.
It’s also worth noting that his made threes have come in bunches, but the pattern is encouraging. He had 5 3p in Game 1, 1 3p in Game 2, 4 3p in Game 3, 1 3p in Game 4, 3 3p in Game 5 and 1 3p in Game 6.
Obviously, his big 3-point shooting nights in odd-numbered games in this series don’t guarantee anything for Game 7, but that is yet another encouraging trend.
NBA Finals Made Three-Pointers Series Leader Odds, Best Bets
One last note on Dort: he’s longer than +200 to finish as the series leader in made three-pointers at both FanDuel (+225) and DraftKings (+250), behind Indiana’s Aaron Nesmith, who is -270 at FD and -225 at DK.
Nesmith has made 16 made 3-pointers in this series, one ahead of Dort’s 15, but the former has had six 3PA or fewer in each of Games 3, 4, 5 and 6.
At minimum, given how many looks Dort has gotten from deep at home in these playoffs, he’s worth a 0.25-unit or 0.5-unit flier to finish with the most made threes in the Finals at +250 at DK.
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