President Trump’s decision to defer an American attack on Iran has left Israel in a strategic bind.
Israel’s main remaining war goal is to wipe out a nuclear enrichment site at Fordo in northern Iran, which is buried so deep underground that Israeli bombs will struggle to damage it.
For days, Israeli officials hoped that Mr. Trump would send American warplanes armed with the only munitions in the world that are deemed powerful enough to destroy Fordo.
Now, Mr. Trump says he will wait up to two weeks before deciding whether to make such an intervention — a delay that imposes a dilemma on Israel.
The longer Israel waits for Mr. Trump, the greater the strain on its air defense system. To keep out Iran’s ballistic missile barrages, Israel is burning through its stocks of missile interceptors, forcing it to prioritize the protection of some areas over others. As time goes on, that raises the risk of more missiles hitting both civilian neighborhoods and strategic security sites.
With Israel’s airspace closed and much of its economic life suspended, the war’s protraction will also come at an economic cost. The sooner the war ends, the faster commercial flights will return and businesses can resume full operations.
Rather than wait for American help, Israel could decide to attack Fordo alone — taking a chance with the planes and munitions it has at its disposal. Some analysts say that Israel could even send commandos to enter and sabotage the site. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu hinted at going it alone on Thursday, saying in a television interview that Israel would “achieve all of our objectives, all of their nuclear facilities. We have the power to do so.”
But experts say that this route is fraught with risk and that its effect may be limited. “It probably won’t be on the scale of what the U.S. can achieve,” said Itamar Rabinovich, a former Israeli ambassador to Washington. “If we could do what the U.S. can, we would have already done it.”
Another option is for Israel to wind down the war unilaterally, without attacking Fordo. But that approach would leave at least a significant part of Iran’s nuclear enrichment program intact, leaving open the possibility that Iran might create a nuclear bomb that could be used against Israel.
For now, Israel does not seem set to take that route. Israel’s political leadership has begun to speak explicitly about prompting the collapse of the Iranian regime and assassinating its leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Even if Israel has no real way of toppling his government, the tone of the comments suggest that Israel, at the very least, intends to continue with its strikes for several days.
The tone of the Israeli news media on Friday also indicated continued domestic support for the Israeli campaign, as did new opinion polling. After Israel’s attack on Iran, Mr. Netanyahu’s party is in its strongest polling position since October 2023, when Hamas carried out the deadliest attack in Israel’s history.
Lia Lapidot contributed reporting from Tel Aviv.
Patrick Kingsley is The Times’s Jerusalem bureau chief, leading coverage of Israel, Gaza and the West Bank.
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