If there’s one player worth trusting tonight in Game 6 of the NBA Finals, it’s the obvious choice: OKC’s Jalen Williams.
He’s put up monster scoring numbers (26 points in Game 3, 27 in Game 4, 40 in Game 5) in his last three games, and the advanced metrics also tell us that Williams is a great bet to have another big game tonight.
Another NBA Finals Game 6 player prop bet we like is Pascal Siakam Over 11.5 rebounds+assists, as we’ll detail below.
Jalen Williams Over 23.5 Points (-108 at FanDuel) — 1 unit
Williams’ outstanding recent play probably won’t prevent SGA from winning Finals MVP, but the OKC offense has largely run through No. 8 over the last three games of this series.
Williams’ shooting numbers (31-of-61 FG, 27-of-34 FT) across Games 3-5 have been impressive, but his usage rate in those contests is the biggest reason why we’re confident he’ll have his third straight explosive scoring night.
Williams had a team-high usage rate of 31.8 in Game 3, while SGA’s was 29.4.
In Game 4, Gilgeous-Alexander finished with a slightly higher usage rate than Williams (32.8 to 32.5) after taking over in the fourth quarter, but Williams once again drove the offensive in Game 5 (Williams’ usage rate was 35.9, well above SGA’s 32.0 usage rate).
Williams aggression going to the basket has also resulted in him taking over 11 free-throw attempts per game in the last three matchups in this series, with a combined free-throw rate of 55.7.
We pointed out before Game 5 that Williams scored 53 points in Games 3 and 4 while making just one 3-pointer in those contests. We also suggested that if he was able to make a few treys, he could easily go over 30 points. He did just that, as his 3-of-5 3-point shooting helped him score 40.
Whether he stays hot from 3-point land or not tonight, Williams is a safe play to reach at least 24 points for the 10th time in 22 postseason games.
Pascal Siakam Over 11.5 Rebounds + Assists (+108 at FD) — 1u
In addition to averaging over 20 points per game in this series, Siakam has also been his team’s top rebounder, with 7.4 per game, and he’s also averaging 4.2 assists per game.
While he’s gone over 11.5 R+A just twice in this series (he had 10 rebounds and 3 assists in Game 1 and 8 rebounds and 5 assists in Game 4), he also finished with exactly 11 R+A in Games 2 and 5.
Siakam had 28 points, 6 rebounds and 5 assists in Game 5 as the Pacers struggled at times to generate offense with Tyrese Haliburton at less than 100 percent. He should have a ton of playmaking responsibility tonight, too, even if Haliburton suits up.
Siakam’s usage rate in Game 5 was 29.9, and he was credited with an outstanding assist rate of 30 percent.
The Pacers will need a huge game from Siakam to keep this series alive. While he might struggle to score as the No. 1 target of the Thunder D if Haliburton is unavailable or ineffective, I expect him to once again put up solid numbers as a rebounder and a passer.
Newsweek may earn an affiliate commission if you sign up through the links in this article. See the sportsbook operator’s terms and conditions for important details. Sports betting operators have no influence over newsroom coverage.
The post NBA Finals Game 6 Player Prop Bets: Will Jalen Williams Stay Hot? appeared first on Newsweek.
