The Thunder are closing in on the NBA title as they take on the Pacers at Gainbridge Fieldhouse in Indianapolis tonight.
After dominant finishes in Games 4 and 5, OKC would be favored even if Pacers star Tyrese Haliburton were 100 percent physically. But with Haliburton expected to be a game-time decision due to a right calf strain, the Thunder are clear favorites in Game 6.
Regular-season MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is averaging over 32 points per game in this series, but the Thunder have also gotten three massive nights in a row from Jalen Williams (26 points in Game 3, 27 in Game 4, 40 in Game 5) to take control after falling behind 2-1 following a Game 3 loss in Indy.
NBA Finals Game 6 Betting Odds: Spread, ML
How to Watch NBA Finals Game 6: Thunder vs. Pacers
- Tipoff: 8:30 p.m. ET
- Channel: ABC
NBA Finals Game 6 Betting Picks, Analysis
For the Pacers, Pascal Siakam (20.6 points, 7.4 rebounds per game in the Finals) has been productive alongside Haliburton.
The rest of Indiana’s starting five will need to step up in a big way tonight, though. Aaron Nesmith, Andrew Nembhard and Myles Turner are averaging a total of just under 34 points per game in this series.
Regardless of how effective Haliburton manages to be (assuming he’s active), Indiana will struggle to keep up with OKC tonight if it doesn’t get more from that trio.
OKC was virtually unstoppable with Williams playing the best, most aggressive ball of his career en route to a 40-point night in Game 5.
With Williams — whose usage rate has exceeded 30 percent in three straight games, including a playoff-high 35.9 in Game 5 — punishing the Pacers for overcommitting to SGA, it’s unclear what counters Indiana has left.
It’s also worth noting that the Thunder managed to post an offensive rating of 124 in Game 5 despite an awful shooting night from Chet Holmgren, who went just 4-for-15 from the floor.
OKC also overcame a poor shooting night by Alex Caruso (2 points on 1-for-8 FG shooting) in Game 5. That makes it that much harder to see the Pacers pulling the upset tonight, even if they do a better job of containing Gilgeous-Alexander and/or Williams.
Thunder vs. Pacers Game 6 Best Bets
Anyone — myself included — who has consistently doubted this Pacers team this postseason has been burned more than once. But I still don’t see Indiana getting enough from its supporting cast in Game 6 to extend the series.
TJ McConnell, Obi Toppin and Bennedict Mathurin have all had their moments in the Finals, but I trust OKC to not let the Pacers’ backups outhustle them tonight.
If Haliburton somehow plays at close to 100 percent and the Thunder fail to match the desperate Pacers’ energy, then I could certainly see this one coming down to the wire.
I like the Thunder to lock in and come through with another emphatic series-clinching win, though.
Remember, OKC dominated Nikola Jokic and the Nuggets, 125-93, in Game 7 of the Western Conference Semifinals.
And in the Western Conference Finals, the Thunder withstood an outstanding offensive performance by Minnesota in Game 4, then blew out the Timberwolves 124-94 in Game 5 to clinch a spot in the NBA Finals.
Based on what I’ve seen from the Pacers throughout these playoffs, I know better than to expect another series-clinching blowout by the Thunder, but I nevertheless expect the favorites to stifle the Pacers’ offense and pull away at some point tonight.
- Thunder -6 (-112 at DraftKings) — 1 unit
- Thunder alt spread -9.5 (+146 at DK) — 0.5 units
- Pacers TT Under 107.5 (-102 at FD, DK) — 1 unit
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