To understand what ails the Democrats, consider the mayoral primary unfolding in New York City.
Zohran Mamdani, a democratic socialist, is one upset away from winning the Democratic nomination, leaving much of the political establishment stunned. But the actual problem for Democrats is Andrew Cuomo, the disgraced former governor insisting on a comeback bid despite representing so much of what many voters have come to disdain about the Democratic Party. The dynamics of the race are a warning for Democrats everywhere.
Mr. Cuomo has few new ideas, moved to the city only months ago and resigned as governor in 2021 after 11 women accused him of sexual harassment. (At the time, Mr. Cuomo apologized. During his mayoral campaign, he has denied wrongdoing and downplayed the accusations.) His candidacy has been propelled by name recognition in a state where he and his father served as governor, and by TV ads casting him as an expert manager and a tough guy willing to stand up to Donald Trump.
Never mind that he shares some of the president’s donors, or that over his 10 years as governor, he made many decisions that hurt New York City.
Faced with more of the same, a significant part of the Democratic base seems to be veering toward drastic action by supporting Mr. Mamdani, a talented and charismatic Queens assemblyman who would have a shaky path to victory in the general election and who is making promises that could be difficult to deliver on. Polls suggest Mr. Mamdani, who has vowed to freeze rents on rent-stabilized apartments, could win 31 percent of the initial vote in the ranked-choice mayoral ballot.
After years of being told to fall in line, Democratic voters are rejecting their party’s establishment in large numbers — movement that could portend unpredictable primaries in the midterms and 2028 presidential race.
Despite its national image as a liberal bastion, New York City often elects centrist mayors by way of sleepy campaigns. Mr. Mamdani is challenging that dynamic. A Mamdani spokesman told me the candidate’s field operation, powered by roughly 40,000 volunteers, had knocked more than one million doors across the city.
Without Mr. Cuomo in the race, a candidate better positioned to win in the general election and lead through consensus might have taken off. Brad Lander, the city’s progressive comptroller, has the mettle and heart for the job, and a housing plan to bring real relief. Images of his arrest on Tuesday by masked ICE agents in a federal courthouse may help his campaign. Mr. Lander had been to the immigration courts several times before, accompanying people leaving court appearances to dissuade ICE from arresting them. In both cases, he was using his status as an elected official and a white man to lay bare the Trump administration’s brazen abuse of power.
Also in the race is Zellnor Myrie, an ambitious young state senator with an impressive record of reform, especially on housing and voting rights. Adrienne Adams, the City Council speaker, is offering experience as well as fresh ways to help working New Yorkers.
Mr. Cuomo’s presence in the field has made it nearly impossible for these Democrats to get noticed. His return is a vivid example of the dysfunction eating away at the Democratic Party nationally. For the last decade, a group of uninspiring politicians have stomped out competition and held on to power. Many of them have clear flaws and liabilities. Many have also ignored the grinding challenges faced by their own constituents, like the nationwide housing shortage. Yet they insist they should remain in charge, strangling the new talent that could reinvigorate the party.
Sometimes the problems are about fitness. Most prominently, there is Joe Biden, who pushed ahead with a re-election bid even though it was clear voters had concerns about his age. Similar stories have played out with senators and members of the House. Senator Dianne Feinstein continued serving well into her 80s despite concerns about her memory. Robert Menendez ran for re-election to the Senate after the Justice Department dropped its corruption charges against him in 2018, then was convicted on bribery charges last year in a different case.
The Democratic establishment has often prized seniority and incumbency over reason. Think of the head-shaking decision by House Democrats to pass over Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, a superb questioner, as their top member on the House Oversight Committee. Instead, they chose the 74-year-old Gerald Connolly of Virginia, who later stepped down because of esophageal cancer; he died in May.
But whether the problem is stale ideas or lack of fitness, a fixation on seniority or on political dynasties, the practical effect is roughly the same. It’s just the mentality that led some party leaders in the 2000s to tell Barack Obama, the last Democrat to electrify the entire party, to wait his turn.
“This is the dinosaur wing of the Democratic Party,” Lis Smith, a veteran Democratic strategist who once worked for Mr. Cuomo, told me. Its members are not representing voters’ interests and not bringing any energy to the table, she added: “They’re just there to protect themselves and not rock the boat.”
Mr. Cuomo is winning big among Black voters and white moderates. It’s a similar coalition to the one that propelled Mr. Biden to the Democratic nomination in 2020. The political reality is that it is difficult for any Democrat, nationally or in New York City, to win without significant support from Black voters, something no progressive in the race, including Mr. Mamdani, has been able to accomplish.
Mr. Cuomo’s strength with Black voters comes only after decades in public office in which both he and his father served as governor. The relationship was cemented further by his daily briefings during the pandemic, solidifying him in the minds of many voters as a Democrat willing to stand up to Mr. Trump.
Despite this, Mr. Mamdani’s surging campaign is a sign that a sizable part of the Democratic base may have had enough with politicians like Mr. Cuomo. They are fed up with high rents and stagnant wages, leaders who won’t break up with corporate interests, who run for office past their prime, and who haven’t shown enough fight against Donald Trump. Driving at least some of this support is discontent over the housing shortage, which has hit younger voters hard and which Mr. Cuomo, as governor, had every opportunity to address as a serious statewide issue but did not so.
These frustrated voters are no longer looking to a consensus-builder like Mr. Lander, Mr. Myrie or Ms. Adams. They are turning to Mr. Mamdani, a democratic socialist.
“Democrats are tired of being told by leaders from the past that we should continue to simply wait our turn, should continue to simply trust, when we know that’s the very leadership that got us to this point,” Mr. Mamdani said astutely in the June 4 mayoral primary candidate debate.
For Mr. Mamdani’s supporters, it doesn’t matter that his path to victory is narrow, or that he has little experience in delivering on his promises. For Democrats angry at their party’s establishment, Mr. Mamdani is the perfect foil.
If the Democratic Party wants to build a coalition that can win, the rebellion unfolding in New York City cannot be ignored.
Since November, the party has been plagued by battles over whether it has moved too far to the left. But there are signs that Mr. Mamdani is gaining support not only among the far left, but also among voters who have long voted for establishment Democrats. One poll showed him eating into Mr. Lander’s base in brownstone Brooklyn, an area of middle-class families, young professionals and moneyed homeowners. It appears a growing number of Democrats don’t see Mr. Mamdani’s vows to provide free buses and free child care and to increase taxes on the wealthy as threatening or outlandish. They see them as necessary.
Mr. Cuomo may be elected mayor anyway. Even if he is, the Democrats have to realize that becoming the serious opposition party the country needs requires them to embrace competition, and let the best talent rise to govern cities and states in a way that works for a majority of their constituents. The dinosaur wing doesn’t have the answers. It’s in the way.
Source photographs by jgroup and BernardaSv/Getty Images.
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Mara Gay is a member of the editorial board. @MaraGay
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