Welcome back to World Brief, where we’re looking at whether the United States will attack Iran, Washington expanding its travel ban, and police brutality in Kenya.
World Brief will be off on Thursday, June 19, for the U.S. holiday of Juneteenth.
‘Good Luck’
U.S. President Donald Trump refused to say on Wednesday whether he will order direct U.S. military action against Iran to assist Israel’s offensive against the country’s nuclear program. “I may do it. I may not do it. Nobody knows what I’m going to do,” Trump said. However, the likelihood of U.S. involvement appears to be growing, with the U.S. Embassy in Israel working to help evacuate American citizens who wish to leave.
On Tuesday, Trump called for an “UNCONDITIONAL SURRENDER” by Iran before meeting with his national security team to discuss the situation. And on Wednesday, he appeared to imply that the United States had approved Israel’s initial operation, saying he gave Tehran 60 days to negotiate a nuclear deal, “and then on day 61, I said, ‘Let’s go.’”
But in a rare address on Wednesday, Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei rejected Trump’s demand for surrender and warned of all-out war if Washington becomes directly involved. “Americans should know that any military involvement by the U.S. will undoubtedly result in irreparable damage to them,” Khamenei said in a televised speech.
Asked by a reporter on Wednesday what his response was to Khamenei’s refusal to surrender, Trump was blunt: “I say, ‘Good luck.’” Trump also said Iran had reached out to propose coming to the White House for talks. “They want to negotiate. And I said, ‘Why didn’t you negotiate with me before?’”
The Iranian mission to the United Nations disputed Trump’s statement. “No Iranian official has ever asked to grovel at the gates of the White House,” it wrote in a post on X on Wednesday. “Iran does NOT negotiate under duress, shall NOT accept peace under duress, and certainly NOT with a has-been warmonger clinging to relevance.”
Since Israel first launched strikes against Iran’s nuclear and military infrastructure last Friday local time, more than 220 people have been killed, according to Iranian state media. Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz has confirmed successful strikes on Iranian uranium enrichment facilities; top military generals; and on Wednesday, the headquarters of Iran’s internal security forces. Tehran has since retaliated with hundreds of drones and missiles, including hypersonic and ballistic missiles—killing at least 24 people in Israel and injuring hundreds more.
Most experts believe that Israel needs U.S. B-2 bombers and so-called bunker buster bombs to do meaningful, lasting damage to Iran’s more heavily fortified nuclear sites, particularly the underground Fordow facility.
“Without an off-ramp, a U.S. strike on Fordow looks increasingly likely,” Gregory Brew, the Eurasia Group’s country analyst for Iran, told FP’s John Haltiwanger. “It’s possible Trump hits Fordow but doesn’t go any further, as taking out the facility accomplishes the main Israeli war aim and also solves the problem of its nuclear program.”
Trump, however, stressed in the Oval Office on Wednesday that while the U.S. forces are “the only ones that have the capability” to hit Fordow, “that doesn’t mean I’m going to do it at all,” adding that it will likely be a last-minute decision.
Meanwhile, it is unclear if nuclear talks are back on the table. Trump said on Wednesday that it is getting “very late” for negotiations, but that “nothing is too late.” Israel maintains that it will continue its offensive regardless of whether the United States resumes nuclear talks.
“I thank [Trump] for standing by our side, and I thank him for the support that the United States is providing us in defending the skies of Israel,” Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said on Wednesday.
Today’s Most Read
- Israel Can’t Be a Hegemon by Stephen M. Walt
- Does Israel Have an Exit Strategy? by David E. Rosenberg
- How the Israel-Iran War Might End by Iselin Brady and Daniel Byman
What We’re Following
Expanded travel ban. The U.S. State Department gave 36 countries until Wednesday to submit an initial action plan to improve their visa vetting processes or else be added to the United States’s travel ban. In a weekend cable sent to embassies and consulates, Washington demanded that these countries crack down on insufficient screenings, travelers who overstay their tourist visas, government fraud, and populations that exhibit “antisemitic and anti-American activity” within 60 days or else have their citizens be barred from entering the United States.
“We’re looking at providing a period of time, [where if countries] don’t get to that point where we can trust them … they’ve got to change the system, update it, do whatever they need to do to convince us that we can trust the process and the information they have,” State Department spokesperson Tammy Bruce said while declining to offer specifics.
The addition of the 36 countries—25 of which are in Africa—would expand a travel ban signed earlier this month targeting 12 nations in an attempt to “keep the radical Islamic terrorists out of our country,” Trump said in a statement. Several governments have denounced the White House’s efforts, with some of the initial 12 countries vowing reciprocal actions.
Police brutality protests. A Kenyan police officer was arrested on Tuesday for shooting an unarmed civilian at close range during a protest in Nairobi. Video appeared to show two policemen striking the individual on the head before one officer shot him with a long-barreled gun while he was trying to walk away. The Associated Press also snapped a photo of the moment before his death.
Peaceful demonstrations across the country began earlier that day over the death of blogger Albert Ojwang while he was in police custody on June 8. Police first said that Ojwang had killed himself, but Kenya’s police chief later confirmed that an independent autopsy had found wounds pointing to assault.
Tuesday’s protests quickly turned violent when hundreds of armed men on motorbikes assaulted the marchers. Kenyan authorities said they do not “condone such unlawful groupings,” calling the men “goons.” However, rights groups maintain that the men were loyal to the government and were working alongside Kenyan police. Such allegations—alongside the deaths of Ojwang and the civilian protester—have reignited long-standing accusations of extrajudicial killings by Kenyan security forces.
Abortion access. British lawmakers voted on Tuesday to decriminalize abortion in England and Wales in an amendment attached to a broader crime bill. Under the existing Victorian-era laws, women can be criminally prosecuted for ending a pregnancy after the 24-week mark. “This is not justice. It is cruelty, and it has got to end,” Labour Party parliamentarian Tonia Antoniazzi said of the older laws.
Current British law allows doctors to legally give abortions in England, Wales, and Scotland up to the 24th week of the pregnancy in most cases; Northern Ireland decriminalized abortion in 2019. During the COVID-19 pandemic, though, London allowed people to receive at-home abortion pills through the mail to terminate their pregnancies within the first 10 weeks. This led to several publicized cases of people allegedly using the pill after the 24-week deadline.
Anti-abortion access groups argue that the new amendment could enable people to have an abortion at any stage during their pregnancy; however, activists in favor of the change believe that allowing people to be prosecuted further harms an already vulnerable demographic. The amendment will not repeal the existing criminal law but will instead prevent people from being investigated, arrested, prosecuted, or imprisoned for terminating their own pregnancies; however, medical professionals who assist the process could still be prosecuted.
The amendment passed with 379 votes in favor and 137 against. The House of Commons must now pass the larger crime bill, which it is expected to do, before needing approval from the House of Lords.
Odds and Ends
New Zealand on Wednesday became the latest country to approve the use of psilocybin—a hallucinogen found in “magic mushrooms”—to treat depression. However, only one psychiatrist, University of Otago professor Cameron Lacey, is authorized to prescribe the substance. This treatment is a “real breakthrough” for patients, Associate Health Minister David Seymour said. New Zealand joins a handful of jurisdictions—including Australia, Switzerland, Canada, and some U.S. states—in allowing psilocybin to be used for medical treatment in certain circumstances.
The post Trump Weighs Direct U.S. Military Involvement Against Iran appeared first on Foreign Policy.
