Thousands of American troops could be in Iran’s direct line of fire if President Trump joins Israel in attacking Tehran’s nuclear program and military, as he said on Wednesday that he may or may not do.
Many would have only minutes to take cover from an incoming Iranian missile.
Experts expect that if Mr. Trump orders the American military to directly participate in Israel’s bombing campaign, Iran will quickly retaliate against U.S. troops stationed across the Middle East.
“The Americans should know that any U.S. military intervention will undoubtedly be accompanied by irreparable damage,” Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, warned on Wednesday, according to state news media.
More than 40,000 U.S. active-duty troops and civilians are working for the Pentagon in the Middle East, and billions of dollars in weapons and military equipment are stored there. Over decades, both during and after war, the American military has fortified its defenses in the region, said Dana Stroul, the Pentagon’s top official for Middle East policy during the Biden administration.
The United States further strengthened those defenses, she said, after Hamas’s brutal attacks on Israel in October 2023, which set off a broader conflict between Israel and Iran’s regional allies.
“In some ways, the U.S. military has absolutely set the theater to respond to Iranian attacks, should the regime choose to turn its missiles or activate its militias against U.S. forces,” Ms. Stroul said on Wednesday.
She added, “The tipping point in whether this expands, is what decisions the United States makes in the coming days, with respect to partnering with Israel in offensive operations.”
Adel Abdel Ghafar, a senior analyst at the Middle East Council on Global Affairs in Doha, Qatar, predicted that American troops stationed in Iraq, Bahrain and Kuwait would be Iran’s first targets. Nonessential American personnel and family have already been withdrawn from the embassies in those three countries.
Iran’s proxy fighters in neighboring Shiite-majority Iraq and elsewhere pose a formidable ground threat to American military and diplomatic outposts, Mr. Abdel Ghafar said. And it would take only three or four minutes for a ballistic missile fired from Iran to hit bases in Gulf countries housing U.S. troops, he said.
“This gives much less time for air defenses” to intercept incoming missiles, he said, “so it would be disastrous.”
Here is where American troops in the Middle East might be most vulnerable.
Iraq
As many as 2,500 American troops and military contractors are in Iraq, based in the capital, Baghdad, as well as in the northern Kurdish region and in the western desert. The Al Asad desert base, which is controlled by the Iraqi military, was targeted by Shiite forces backed by Iran earlier this week in drone strikes. American forces stationed there shot down the weapons.
The American military has a fraught relationship with the Iraqis, after the eight-year war and the occupation that ended in 2011, but U.S. troops were welcomed back just a few years later to fight Islamic State militants who had seized control of areas in the country’s north and west. In 2020, the Trump administration ordered an airstrike that killed the commander of Iran’s elite Quds Force, Maj. Gen. Qassim Suleimani, as he arrived in Baghdad to meet with Iraq’s prime minister. The strike escalated tensions between Washington and Tehran.
Bahrain
The headquarters of the Navy’s Fifth Fleet are in Manama, Bahrain, and host about 9,000 U.S. military and civilian personnel. Part of its mission is to ensure safe passage for commercial ships through the Strait of Hormuz, where 20 percent of the world’s oil supply flows through. Iran has threatened to seed the strait with as many as 6,000 naval mines, a tactic meant to pin American warships in the Persian Gulf. It would also disrupt global oil trade, especially for Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, which ship a lot of oil through the strait, as well as energy buyers like China and India.
Kuwait
Five bases in Kuwait, where about 13,500 American troops are stationed, have served for decades as an essential staging point for forces, weapons and military equipment on their way to battlefields around the world.
Military ties between Kuwait and the United States have remained strong since the Persian Gulf war of 1991. After Iraq invaded Kuwait in 1990, the United States led a coalition to contain Saddam Hussein’s forces in the region and keep him from seizing Saudi Arabia. Within months, U.S. forces had chased Saddam’s troops back into Iraq, liberating Kuwait. American troops have been based in Kuwait ever since.
More than a decade later, in 2003, U.S. and international troops used Kuwait as a launchpad to invade Iraq and oust Saddam.
Qatar
The Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar is the largest U.S. military site in the Middle East and is the regional headquarters for the U.S. Central Command, which oversees forces in the region. About 10,000 troops are stationed there.
The U.S. military has been using Al Udeid since the days after the Sept. 11 attacks, when it positioned planes there to target the Taliban and Al Qaeda in Afghanistan. Two years later, Al Udeid became the main U.S. air operations hub in the region. U.S. commanders used it to coordinate a wide variety of missions during the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, as well as strikes against ISIS in Syria. The Air Force has deployed a wide variety of aircraft there, from advanced fighters and long-range bombers to drones, transport planes and in-flight refueling tankers.
It also became the central evacuation point for tens of thousands of Afghans and Americans who fled Afghanistan in 2021 when the U.S. military withdrew.
United Arab Emirates
About 3,500 U.S. military personnel are at the Al Dhafra Air Base, outside Abu Dhabi, where the United States has deployed F-22 fighter jets in recent years, including to protect Emirati fuel tankers that were attacked by Iran-linked Houthi fighters in 2022.
The 380th Air Expeditionary Wing of the U.S. Air Force is based at Al Dhafra, from where it has launched combat operations against the Islamic State and the Houthis, and in Afghanistan. It also been used as an intelligence-gathering and surveillance unit during the U.S. wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, as well as for aerial refueling.
Graphic by Daniel Wood.
Lara Jakes, based in Rome, reports on diplomatic and military efforts by the West to support Ukraine in its war with Russia. She has been a journalist for nearly 30 years.
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