If you’re a major league team trying to move a $250-million contract, what other team would you likely call first?
The Dodgers, of course.
On Sunday, the Boston Red Sox traded Rafael Devers, a three-time All-Star two years shy of 30. Andrew Friedman said he never heard from them.
That made sense. The Red Sox were no longer using Devers as a third baseman, a decision backed by publicly available defensive metrics and the presence of Alex Bregman. The San Francisco Giants, the team that acquired Devers, say they’ll use him as a first baseman and designated hitter, and the Dodgers are more than covered there by Freddie Freeman and Shohei Ohtani.
But, in the wake of the biggest trade so far this season, I thought back to the mission statement the Dodgers’ president of baseball operations put upon himself last winter. Here we are two weeks from July, and here was that Friedman statement from December: “I do not want to buy in July.”
What Friedman does not want might not matter a month from now. He could see a pretty picture, or he could need a pretty pitcher.
For all the scrutiny of their shortcomings, the first-place Dodgers are in a pretty good spot. They lead the majors in runs, home runs and OPS.
They have won six of their past eight games, all against the teams immediately below them in the National League West standings: the Giants and the San Diego Padres. The Dodgers lead the toughest division in the majors by a season-high 3½ games over San Francisco, 5 games over San Diego.
After the Padres leave town Thursday, the Dodgers play 12 consecutive games against teams with losing records, including the team with the worst record in the NL and the worst record in the American League — the Colorado Rockies and the Chicago White Sox, respectively.
Friedman would rather not trade in July because the cost in prospects tends to be high. However, for the Dodgers, the annual expectation of winning the World Series trumps that.
“It’s been our goal the last three or four years not to buy in July,” Friedman said Tuesday. “It hasn’t necessarily played out according to plan.”
On offense, the lone hole is glaring. The only starting position player not performing above league average on offense is left fielder Michael Conforto, who is batting .168 with a .277 slugging percentage and a negative WAR. The Dodgers do have Hyeseong Kim as a wild card on the bench, and on a roster loaded with positional flexibility.
“To date, obviously, Michael hasn’t performed up to what he expected or we expected,” Friedman said. “But, watching the way he is working, watching the progress being made, I would bet that his next two months are way better than his last two months.
“Obviously, like we will with all of our players, we will continue to assess where they are. The important thing is, if we have an injury or (poor) performance, do we feel like we have different ways to maneuver? We do.”
Is there a possibility of trading for a left fielder?
“Never say never,” Friedman said, “but I think we would hold a very high bar and find it very unlikely.”
By the middle of July, the Dodgers would like their starting rotation to include Yoshinobu Yamamoto, the recently returned duo of Ohtani and Clayton Kershaw, and the rehabilitating duo of Tyler Glasnow and Blake Snell.
On paper, that would be a pretty sweet rotation.
On the field, Yamamoto has a 5.65 earned-run average this month. It is unlikely the perennially cautious Dodgers would let Ohtani and Kershaw make every start from now through the end of the season, even if the two stayed healthy. And it is uncertain whether Glasnow and Snell can return healthy and effective by the time Friedman would have to decide whether to trade prospects for a starting pitcher.
No buy in July?
“I’m still optimistic,” Friedman said. “It requires guys coming back on or close to the timelines that we have penciled out.
“We have shown that, if we’re not in position to do that, we’ll be aggressive to add. But our strong desire is not to.”
It is not that the Dodgers consider a bullpen game some sort of failure, or last resort. The Dodgers ran a bullpen game in an elimination game last October. They won that game, and another bullpen game in which they clinched the NL championship.
They have run bullpen games in each of their past four games against San Diego, and they have won three. They’ll essentially run another one Wednesday, since Emmet Sheehan will be activated after four triple-A starts, none of which lasted more than 3⅓ innings.
So far, so good. But the Dodgers are about October, and getting there may not be painless with Jack Dreyer making one fewer start than Glasnow, and twice as many as Snell.
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