The Democratic primary for New York City mayor has tightened into a two-man sprint in its final days, with former Gov. Andrew M. Cuomo maintaining a modest but diminished lead over Assemblyman Zohran Mamdani, according to a new poll released on Wednesday.
The survey from the Marist Institute for Public Opinion found that 38 percent of likely voters planned to rank Mr. Cuomo first on their ballots, compared with 27 percent for Mr. Mamdani. In a simulation of the city’s ranked-choice voting system, the former governor prevailed over Mr. Mamdani by 10 percentage points in the seventh round.
Yet, with less than a week to go before the June 24 primary, the results also showed signs of momentum for Mr. Mamdani, a 33-year-old democratic socialist running on an economic populist message. He cut the lead Mr. Cuomo held in a Marist poll in May by nearly half by consolidating progressives and making inroads with Latino voters.
“Mamdani is clearly in Cuomo’s rearview mirror,” said Lee M. Miringoff, the poll’s director. “What’s the line? Objects in the mirror may be closer than they appear.”
The Marist survey was one of the few quality, nonpartisan polls published in the chaotic final weeks of the race, which has been dominated by affordability, public safety and the return of President Trump. It had a margin of error of 4.3 percent and found 11 percent of likely voters were still undecided.
The poll, however, was conducted between June 9 and 12, so it did not capture the impact of a string of major campaign events that included the contest’s final televised debate; the announcement of a cross-endorsement between Mr. Mamdani and Brad Lander, the city comptroller; and an ad barrage attacking the assemblyman.
Mr. Lander, whom the poll put in a distant third place, could also see a surge in interest in his campaign after his arrest on Tuesday by federal agents at an immigration courthouse in Lower Manhattan, where he was trying to escort a migrant agents wanted to arrest.
Nearly 132,000 Democrats have already voted early in a contest that could see around 1 million participants. The Democratic primary winner typically becomes the front-runner for the general election, but this year could be less predictable.
Mayor Eric Adams skipped the Democratic primary to run as an independent in November. Mr. Cuomo has indicated that he plans to continue running no matter the result next Tuesday, reserving a third-party ballot line for the purpose. And the left-leaning Working Families Party has its own line that it could give to Mr. Mamdani or another candidate. Other candidates include Jim Walden, an independent, and Curtis Sliwa, a Republican.
Wednesday’s poll suggested that backing for Mr. Cuomo, 67, has been basically flat since May. He has maintained his lead largely on the strength of his support among three groups — Black voters, women and voters over 45 — who are among the most reliable blocs in a Democratic primary.
Over the same period, Mr. Mamdani rose from being the first choice of 18 percent of likely voters to 27 percent. He does best among likely voters who are “very liberal” and under 45, but also roughly doubled his support among Latino New Yorkers, narrowly surpassing Mr. Cuomo with that group.
To win, though, Mr. Mamdani will most likely need to either make further gains with nonwhite voters or generate unusually large turnout among his base — no easy task.
(Numbers for both Mr. Cuomo and Mr. Mamdani rise in the poll when undecided voters are excluded, but the spread is similar, with 43 percent listing the former governor first and 31 percent doing so for the assemblyman.)
The recent bitterness of the race reflects its tightening. Mr. Cuomo, a moderate, has tried to fend off Mr. Mamdani’s rise by portraying him as a radical socialist who is utterly unqualified to go up against Mr. Trump after just four years in Albany.
Mr. Mamdani has accused Mr. Cuomo of selling out to the corporate donors who have put nearly $20 million behind his campaign, and has sought to remind voters that the former governor resigned after being accused of sexual harassment by roughly a dozen woman. (Mr. Cuomo denies wrongdoing.)
The poll had more troubling news for Mr. Lander and Adrienne Adams, the City Council speaker. Despite their prominent roles in city government, the poll found them remaining a distant third and fourth place, each with around 7 percent of the vote.
The poll found Scott Stringer, the former comptroller, winning about 4 percent of the vote. State Senator Zellnor Myrie and Michael Blake, a former assemblyman, each had about 2 percent.
This year’s mayoral primary is only the second in New York City to be run with a ranked-choice voting system, which adds another wrinkle of complication to modeling the outcome.
The survey found that Mr. Cuomo’s supporters were far less likely to rank more than one candidate on their ballots than those who were ranking Mr. Mamdani or Mr. Lander first.
Nicholas Fandos is a Times reporter covering New York politics and government.
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