TEL AVIV — Israel and Iran are now locked in an existential battle that neither can afford to lose. There is no quick or easy way out and the outcome could fundamentally alter the make-up of the region.
In Iran, the regime of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has been seriously weakened. The regime likely feels it has no choice but to retaliate against Israeli strikes — its survival hinges on maintaining domestic strength. Seeking a rapid way out of the conflict is paramount. The regime lives or falls depending on what happens next.
For Israel, the road to Tehran has been paved in the ruins of Gaza and Lebanon. But the political, military and intelligence elites understand that the Iranian regime is not the proxies it uses in the region; it is not Hamas; it is not Hezbollah. It is a far more potent enemy that will fire back and — as we have seen — some of those devastating missiles will get through.
That is why the talk in Israel has turned to how to get the U.S. and its military on board. Not only to neutralize the perceived threat from Iran and its nuclear and ballistic capabilities. But to achieve what Israel wants — what it believes it needs — in order to have a government in Tehran that Israel feels does not threaten its survival.
Oct. 7, 2023, was a shock wake-up call. It laid bare the security and intelligence weaknesses that had set in during years of prosperity and relative peace. But the real shock came from the recognition that the sacred promise of “never again” forged in the embers of the Holocaust had been broken.
In order to recast this sacred promise, in order to reestablish regional military hegemony and above all deterrence, in fact in order to guarantee the survival of the nation, Israel feels it must pursue what may be a long war until its enemies have been neutered.
The vast majority of Israelis understand this.
At 6 a.m. Monday, standing in the ruins of her neighborhood in downtown Tel Aviv, Alana Reuben-Free emerged from the blast shaken but intact. Her close call does not diminish her determination.
“Israel is saving the world from the Ayatollah,” she said. “We are going to be victorious over the Ayatollah. And the whole world should be thanking us and really helping us”.
Brig. Gen. Effie Defrin, chief spokesman for the Israel Defense Forces, insists the mission is not about regime change but what Israel sees as the threat of nuclear war.
“We are not planning to change the regime in Iran,” he said. “Our military targets, our military goals are to remove this threat, to remove the threat of nuclear bomb over Israel and the ballistic missiles, and of course the proliferation of terror all over the region.
But if Ayatollah Khamenei and his regime is seriously weakened that could destabilize the rule of the theocrats.
“I don’t think there will be any tears shed in Iran itself by its own people he said. “It’s up to the Iranian people to change the regime, not to us. We are moving, removing this threat.”
President Donald Trump has made repeated and often contradictory statements and posts about the situation. On Tuesday, Trump both called for Iran to continue negotiations and then later called for “UNCONDITIONAL SURRENDER.”
But what Trump decides to actually do could dictate how this conflict ends.
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