Iran’s Shiite proxies in Iraq are planning massive protests against Israel and demanding Baghdad prevent Israeli planes from passing through Iraqi airspace to attack Iran.
Meanwhile, Iran-controlled militia groups in Iraq are threatening to attack American positions.
Ali al-Daffayi, a senior official for the Iran-backed alliance of Shiite political parties in Iraq, said on Tuesday that preparations for “mass popular demonstrations” of “solidarity with the Islamic Republic of Iran” have begun.
Daffayi said a few smaller demonstrations have already taken place in the “Green Zone” of Baghdad, the fortified region where America and other countries maintain their diplomatic missions.
“We have to take a decisive stance,” he said. “We are united in condemning the [Israeli] aggression, and in backing the Islamic Republic and its right to defend itself.”
Iraq complained to the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) on Friday about Israeli aircraft passing through Iraqi airspace on their way to attack targets in Iran.
“These practices constitute a flagrant violation of Iraq’s sovereignty,” the Iraqi Foreign Ministry said, calling on UNSC to “assume its responsibilities” and “prevent the recurrence of such violations.”
Daffayi on Tuesday urged the Iraqi central government to obtain “a sophisticated and advanced aerial defense system” that could deter future violations of Iraqi airspace.
If the U.S. refused to provide the necessary systems, Daffayi said Iraq should “seek them from other countries.” Iraq signed a $2.8 billion deal to buy anti-aircraft missiles from South Korea in September.
The Jerusalem Post noted on Tuesday that Iraq has lacked a serious air defense system since the U.S.-led coalition defeated Saddam Hussein’s military in 1991. Residents of southern Iraq were therefore astonished to rise on Sunday morning and discover a handful of unidentified drones crashed in their backyards.
Baghdad has few options beyond “absent deterrence” and “silent diplomacy” in its bid to stay out of the Israel-Iran conflict. In practice, this means sending angry letters to the U.N. and issuing defiance statements rejecting “the use of its airspace for miliary attacks by the Zionist entity,” as a spokesman for the Iraqi military put it.
“Iraq’s airspace is complex because the U.S.-led anti-ISIS coalition also operates in Iraq. Some Iraqis think the US coordinates with Israel and they want the U.S. to help protect Iraq’s airspace,” the Jerusalem Post observed.
A senior Iraqi security official told AFP on Tuesday that “everyone is cooperating with the government to keep Iraq away from conflict.”
This would appear to include the infamous Iraqi Shiite militia groups that are loyal to Iran, which have styled themselves as the “Axis of Resistance” and attacked American positions numerous times since Hamas launched the Gaza war on October 7, 2023.
Several Iraqi militias have issued statements threatening to attack U.S. forces, including Kataib Hezbollah (KH), generally seen as the most powerful of Iran’s terrorist proxies in Iraq. KH lost its leader Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis to the same U.S. airstrike in 2020 that killed Iranian terror mastermind Qassem Soleimani.
Even KH has made its threats conditional, vowing to “act without hesitation” against American military bases and the U.S. embassy if it believes America has “intervened” on behalf of Israel against Iran.
These groups have demonstrated both the capability and willingness to attack Americans in Iraq, as well as targets in Israel, but for the moment they appear to be looking for reasons not to launch their rockets and provoke a response they might regret.
Some analysts believe Iran’s proxies will act if Tehran’s situation becomes sufficiently desperate, although one wonders just how much more desperate it could become given Israel’s swift destruction of Iran’s air defenses and military leadership. Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) might be wondering what its lavishly funded proteges in Iraq are waiting for.
AFP hinted that Baghdad’s rather frantic “silent diplomacy” has included restraining the Shiiite militia groups, as well as asking the U.S. to limit further provocative violations of Iraqi airspace. Iraq has elections coming up in November, and Shiite factions hope to increase their influence in Baghdad by winning more parliamentary seats.
“Sometimes, the sword must be kept in the sheath, but this does not mean abandoning our weapons,” one militia commander told AFP.
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