Mark Blinch/REUTERS
Now is a great time to become a plumber, at least according to the so-called Godfather of AI.
Geoffrey Hinton, who previously worked at Google and earned his nickname for his work on neural networks, laid out the risks of mass joblessness during an interview on the ‘Diary of a CEO’ podcast that aired June 16. He said that, eventually, the technology will “get to be better than us at everything,” but some fields are safer than others in the interim.
“I’d say it’s going to be a long time before it’s as good at physical manipulation,” Hinton said. “So a good bet would be to be a plumber.”
Gen Zers, who are trapped in a brutal job market, are gravitating more and more toward blue-collar work, as BI previously reported.
“For mundane intellectual labor, AI is just going to replace everybody,” Hinton said. He flagged paralegals as at risk, and said he’d be “terrified” if he worked in a call center. You would, he said, have to be “very skilled” to have an AI-proof job.
Hinton sees the risk of mass job displacement as the biggest immediate threat to human unhappiness. Even if there’s a universal basic income, as Hinton advocates, he thinks people would lack a sense of purpose without a job.
According to Hinton, mass displacement is more likely than not, and is already upon us in some ways. He said AI is starting to be used for jobs previously popular with recent college graduates.
Some argue that the fear that AI will displace entry-level work is overblown. Hinton agreed with the idea that some roles will be replaced by humans working with an AI assistant rather than just the technology, but he said that means one person will do what used to be the work of 10 people. For many industries, he said, that will mean mass firings.
A few areas, like healthcare, will be able to absorb the change, since there’s almost endless demand.
“But most jobs, I think, are not like that,” Hinton said.
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