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China could achieve parity with the US and Russia in terms of the number of intercontinental ballistic missiles it has by 2030, per an estimate by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute.
The European think tank said in a report on Monday that China has the world’s fastest-growing nuclear arsenal. It added that the country has at least 600 nuclear warheads and has been adding about 100 warheads to its arsenal every year since 2023.
Last year, SIPRI said China increased its number of nuclear warheads from 410 in 2023 to 500 at the start of 2024.
SIPRI’s estimate is similar to that of the Pentagon’s, which said in its China Military Power Report last year that China has over 600 operational nuclear warheads. The Defense Department said China is on track to grow its arsenal to 1,000 warheads by 2030.
SIPRI said in its report on Monday that China could have as many ICBMs as the US or Russia by 2030, but will lag behind in the number of warheads. It estimates that China will have a maximum number of 1,500 warheads by 2035.
In comparison, the US has 5,177 warheads while Russia has 5,459, per SIPRI estimates. The countries’ combined stockpile makes up almost 90% of the world’s nuclear weapons.
In February, President Donald Trump said he wanted to engage Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese leader Xi Jinping in denuclearization talks in the “not too distant future.”
“China is trying to catch up because they’re very substantially behind, but within five or six years, they’ll be even,” Trump said of China’s burgeoning nuclear arsenal.
Guo Jiakun, a spokesperson for the Chinese foreign ministry, said in a press briefing in February that China’s nuclear strategy “focuses on self-defense” and it “always keeps its nuclear strength at the minimum level required by national security.”
The US and Russia should “make drastic and substantive cuts to their nuclear arsenals, and create necessary conditions for other nuclear-weapon states to join in the nuclear disarmament process,” Guo said.
China’s foreign ministry did not respond to a request for comment from Business Insider.
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