As if we don’t have enough to worry about, the Moon might get smacked by a chunk of space rock the size of a sports arena. Astronomers say asteroid 2024 YR4 now has a 4.3% chance of hitting the Moon in 2032—up from the previous 3.8%.
This is the same asteroid that briefly had a 3.1% chance of slamming into Earth earlier this year, which—if it had landed in a populated area—could’ve flattened neighborhoods and left a smoking crater where a city once stood. That risk has been downgraded, but new observations from the James Webb Space Telescope suggest the Moon’s still in the danger zone.
After a closer look using JWST data collected in May 2025, a team led by Andy Rivkin at Johns Hopkins Applied Physics Lab crunched the numbers again—and the odds of the asteroid hitting the Moon went up. It’s now sitting at 4.3%.
That’s still a low probability in the grand scheme of things, but in terms of space objects potentially smashing into other celestial bodies, it’s significant. If 2024 YR4 does hit the Moon, it wouldn’t be apocalyptic. It won’t knock it off its orbit or send chunks flying toward Earth. But it would leave a giant new crater, and that kind of impact would be a goldmine for planetary scientists watching from below.
A direct impact of that size would be “scientifically interesting,” according to ScienceAlert, giving researchers a chance to observe how a massive lunar crater forms in real time. With no atmosphere to slow it down, the Moon would take the hit at full force—something scientists say would be both rare and valuable to study.
We’re not done tracking this rock, either. It won’t swing back near us until December 2028, when we’ll get another close-up look and a chance to tighten the math on its future trajectory. Until then, 2024 YR4 remains just out of reach—and just close enough to keep a nervous eye on.
Add that to your list of weird space near-misses, and maybe pencil in “Moon explosion?” on your 2032 calendar. Just in case.
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