Just how mad is Beijing about President Donald Trump’s decision to revoke student visas for Chinese nationals? Not as mad as it says, and not as mad as one might expect. Publicly, China’s leadership will likely complain that Trump’s action is yet another attempt to thwart the country’s rise. But in reality, Beijing would probably just as soon keep its smartest kids at home.
Late last month, the U.S. State Department announced that it would “aggressively revoke visas for Chinese students, including those with connections to the Chinese Communist Party or studying in critical fields,” and that it would “enhance scrutiny” of the applications it received in the future. The new visa policy, a spokesperson said, is meant to prevent China from exploiting American universities and stealing intellectual property.
A spokesperson for the foreign ministry quickly registered Beijing’s objection to the new policy. But when Chinese leader Xi Jinping spoke with Trump by phone last week, either he didn’t raise the new visa policy or his foreign ministry didn’t regard his comments on the matter worth including in its official summary of the call, which suggests that the issue is not a top priority in Beijing’s negotiations with Washington.
One reason for this underwhelming response may be that re-shoring its university students serves Beijing’s current agenda. China first opened to the world in the 1980s; in the decades that followed, securing a Western education for its elite helped the country bring in the technology and skills it needed to escape poverty. China was “sending people out, learning from other places, finding the best quality wherever it was, and bringing that quality back to China,” Robin Lewis, a consultant for U.S.-China education programs and a former associate dean at Columbia University, told me. Now that period has given way to one of nationalism and self-reliance, which means promoting China’s own companies, products, technologies—and universities.
Xi has consistently stressed the importance of education in sustaining China’s rise. His government has invested heavily in China’s schools and lavished resources on science and technology programs, with some success. Some of China’s top institutions, such as Tsinghua University in Beijing, have gained international recognition as serious competitors in scientific research.
China would like to have its own Harvards, rather than sending its elite students to the United States, for political and cultural reasons as well as economic ones. Chinese authorities have long worried that the hundreds of thousands of students it exports to America will absorb undesirable ideas about democracy and civil liberties—and that they will access information about China that is suppressed at home, such as the story of the Tiananmen Square massacre in 1989. In fact, many young Chinese who study in the United States seem to enjoy American freedoms and seek to stay rather than return to serve the motherland. Beijing has tried to deal with this in part by monitoring the activities of its students in the U.S. and attempting to hold them firmly to the party line, including by harassing the families back home of those who stray.
Within China, authorities can more easily confine students inside the government’s propaganda bubble, which in recent years has become more airtight. Domestic media seek to portray the U.S. as unsafe, especially for Asians, by highlighting incidents of racial discrimination, violence, and disorder. One story published last year by the state news agency Xinhua, under the headline “Chinese Students’ Dreams Turned Into Nightmares at U.S. Doorstep,” tells the harrowing tale of a Chinese student detained and deported at an airport and claims that others had suffered the same fate. China’s top spy agency, the Ministry of State Security, warned Chinese students at universities abroad against being recruited as foreign agents, and told of one such unfortunate national who was discovered and punished.
Even before Trump’s announcement, this climate of mutual distrust had led to a drop-off in Chinese students enrolled in American universities. The number had reached an all-time high during the 2019–20 academic year, topping 372,000, according to the Institute of International Education. But that figure has fallen since—by a quarter, to 277,000, in the 2023–24 academic year. Now India, with more than 331,000 enrolled, sends more students to American institutions than China does.
The Trump administration appears to believe that curtailing Chinese access to American technology, money, and, in this case, education will give the U.S. the edge over its closest competitor. In some areas, this might work: Restricting the export of advanced U.S. semiconductor technology to China seems to have helped hold Beijing’s chip industry back. So why not do the same with higher education? A case can be made that keeping Chinese students out of some of the world’s top research institutions will hold back their skills acquisition and, with it, the country’s progress.
In practice, though, the effect of this policy could be hard to gauge. The engineers behind the Chinese AI firm DeepSeek, which wowed Silicon Valley by developing a competitive chatbot on the cheap, were mainly locally trained. And the skills that Chinese students can’t find at home they can seek in any number of places. There may be only so many Harvards, but Chinese students can receive a good education—and a warmer reception—in countries other than the United States. Universities in Japan and Hong Kong are already trying to capitalize on Trump’s harassment of international students to lure them.
The idea that any American policy can effectively dampen Chinese ambition may be far-fetched. “People wake up in the morning and it’s all about education here. There is nothing more important,” James McGregor, the chair for China at the consulting firm APCO, told me. “You’re going to stop Chinese people from learning the top skills in the world? No. They’ll just deploy them somewhere else.”
For now, the Trump team can’t seem to decide whether it wants to get tough on China or make deals with China, and the new student-visa policy reflects this confusion. “Chinese students are coming. No problem,” Trump said in a briefing after his call with Xi. “It’s our honor to have them, frankly.”
China’s leadership surely knows that many Chinese families still aspire to send their young-adult children to American universities. But Beijing is much more single-minded than Washington about the future of relations between the two countries: Xi appears to see Washington as the primary impediment to China’s rise, and ties to the U.S. as a vulnerability best eliminated. From that viewpoint, relying on Harvard to train China’s most promising students is a national-security risk. That means that Trump may be doing Xi a favor.
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