For years Israel’s prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, oversaw a clandestine conflict with Iran, one in which every move was calibrated to avoid an all-out war between two of the region’s most powerful militaries. Even last year, when both sides openly attacked each other for the first time, Israel avoided strikes that risked igniting a drawn-out battle.
Now, Mr. Netanyahu has thrown caution to the wind with an astonishingly brazen and broad attack on Iran that will likely unleash weeks or more of turmoil across the region. On Mr. Netanyahu’s orders, Israel has targeted not only Iran’s nuclear sites but its air defenses, its military bases and its most senior military leadership.
In doing so, analysts said, Mr. Netanyahu had short-term motivations: to derail diplomatic negotiations between the United States and Iran, and to prevent the immediate expansion of Iran’s nuclear program.
He also has far grander aspirations. For decades, Mr. Netanyahu has presented the Shiite Islamist regime in Iran as the greatest threat to Israel’s security, both because of its homegrown efforts to build a nuclear bomb, and because of Iran’s support for Palestinian militias and other Arab groups opposed to Israel.
After years of advocating for the overwhelming use of force to quell that danger, Mr. Netanyahu finally seems ready to turn his threats into action — perhaps, analysts said, with an eye on his place in Israeli history
Mr. Netanyahu now risks embroiling the region, and potentially, the United States, in conflict as he faces domestic turmoil at home and greater international censure over his conduct of the war against Hamas in Gaza.
“For him, this is personal — for 25 years, he has been talking about this,” said Nadav Shtrauchler, a former adviser to Mr. Netanyahu, and an Israeli political analyst. “This is the big picture that he has been aiming for. This is his legacy.”
Mr. Netanyahu had planned a large-scale attack on Iran more than a decade ago, during a previous term as prime minister. But he ultimately called it off under pressure from the Obama administration and amid concerns in his cabinet about Israel’s military capabilities. In 2015, he risked a rupture with President Obama by making a speech to Congress in which he criticized Mr. Obama’s efforts to curb Iran’s nuclear program through diplomacy.
Recent events have made it easier for the military to strike, likely emboldening Mr. Netanyahu. Over the last year and a half, Israel decimated Iran’s regional alliances and reduced Iran’s own defensive capabilities. Hezbollah, Iran’s ally in Lebanon, is now severely weakened, while the Syrian government, another Iranian ally, was overthrown in December.
Finally, the election of President Trump widened the window of opportunity. Though Mr. Trump pursued a diplomatic arrangement with Iran over its nuclear ambitions and even asked Mr. Netanyahu to delay the strike, the president at times seemed more willing than President Biden to entertain the idea of an attack.
“Diplomatically, Trump’s election gave Netanyahu a president willing to rhetorically back a credible military threat,” said Michael Koplow, an analyst at Israel Policy Forum, a New York-based research group.
“Netanyahu’s preference to deal with Iran’s nuclear program through military action has been crystal clear for years, and he finally had his perfect storm of opportunity,” Mr. Koplow added.
Domestically, Mr. Netanyahu also stands to benefit from a strike on Iran. His reputation as the guardian of Israel’s security was tarnished by Hamas’s attack on Israel in October 2023, the deadliest security failure in Israel’s history.
If the attack on Friday, which also killed two Iranian nuclear scientists, severely diminishes Iran’s nuclear program, analysts said, Mr. Netanyahu could bolster his national standing ahead of a general election next year.
“Netanyahu wants to start his election year with a visible advantage,” said Mazal Mualem, a biographer of Mr. Netanyahu and a political commentator.
“Instead of bearing the responsibility for Oct. 7, he wants to be able to etch his role in the history of Israel as the statesman who defeated the Iranian nuclear program,” Ms. Mualem said. “But all this of course depends on how things will develop.”
Eventually, it could also present Mr. Netanyahu with an opportunity to end the war in Gaza, Mr. Shtrauchler said. For more than a year, Mr. Netanyahu has refused to consider a permanent truce in Gaza without Hamas’s complete defeat there, amid strong resistance to such an outcome from his right-wing allies.
By inflicting meaningful wounds on Hamas’s biggest benefactor, Iran, it may be easier for Mr. Netanyahu to compromise in Gaza, Mr. Shtrauchler said.
Now, Mr. Shtrauchler said, “He can wrap it up and say we changed the equation for the good. I don’t think it will happen tomorrow, but it’s a huge step toward that.”
Patrick Kingsley is The Times’s Jerusalem bureau chief, leading coverage of Israel, Gaza and the West Bank.
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